Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

75Outperform

Vista Oil & Gas shows strong growth and operational efficiency, with notable revenue and profit margins. The strategic acquisition and robust production growth are significant positives. However, concerns about leverage and free cash flow require careful management. The stock is attractively valued, offering potential upside despite the financial and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Operational Performance

Vista's 3Q24 results confirmed its solid operational performance and acceleration of its Vaca Muerta shale oil push.

Strategic Plan

Vista's updated strategic plan balances capital discipline with further acceleration in the development of its Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina.

Negative Factors

Earnings

Weak 4Q24 previews with an expected decrease in Adj. EBITDA by 5% YoY and 12% QoQ.

Free Cash Flow

In our calculations, free cash flow to equity in the period was zero, composed of cash flow from operations, capex, financial expenses, and leasing payments.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.75B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.31M

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0

Beta (1Y)0.54

Revenue Growth54.19%

EPS Growth37.69%

CountryUS

Employees528

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.79

Shares Outstanding95,195,885

10 Day Avg. Volume868,583

30 Day Avg. Volume1,311,097

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio11.60

Price to Book (P/B)2.78

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-19.72

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.34

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.10

Price Target Upside36.09% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) is a leading independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in Latin America. The company primarily operates in the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Argentina, which is one of the largest unconventional shale oil and gas reserves in the world. Vista Oil & Gas is committed to operational excellence and sustainable development, leveraging advanced technology and industry expertise to maximize resource recovery and value creation.

How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its produced hydrocarbons to domestic and international markets, often through long-term supply agreements and spot market sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which is typically priced in relation to global benchmarks such as Brent or WTI, and the sale of natural gas, which may be priced based on regional market conditions. Additionally, Vista Oil & Gas may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to optimize production capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production volumes, operational efficiencies, and regulatory policies in the regions where it operates.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV demonstrates strong revenue growth and robust profit margins. However, increased leverage and negative free cash flow due to substantial capital expenditures pose challenges. Overall, the company shows strong growth potential but needs to manage leverage and cash flow effectively.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase to $1.77 billion from $1.16 billion in 2023. The gross profit margin stands strong at 57.0% for TTM, highlighting efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 35.9% and 65.7%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 27.2% from 28.9% in 2023, suggesting some pressure on net profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company shows a stable financial position with an equity ratio of 36.6% in TTM, reflecting a balanced capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.08, indicating a rise in leverage, which could pose risks if interest rates increase. Return on equity is healthy at 29.3%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow remains strong at $969 million, providing a solid cushion for operations. However, free cash flow has turned negative to -$228 million in TTM due to higher capital expenditures, which could impact liquidity if prolonged. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.01, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.77B	1.65B	1.17B	1.14B	652.19M	273.94M
	Gross Profit
1.01B	1.26B	591.25M	630.24M	266.61M	2.43M
	EBIT
634.69M	625.39M	631.49M	529.15M	210.55M	-53.56M
	EBITDA
1.16B	1.10B	851.24M	706.13M	403.56M	90.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
481.66M	477.52M	396.95M	269.54M	50.65M	-102.75M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
151.65M	764.31M	213.25M	244.96M	315.31M	203.27M
	Total Assets
2.80B	4.23B	2.60B	2.04B	1.68B	1.37B
	Total Debt
729.90M	1.54B	686.52M	578.53M	638.05M	563.47M
	Net Debt
585.14M	788.62M	477.01M	554.62M	559.95M	560.59M
	Total Liabilities
1.49B	2.61B	1.35B	1.19B	1.12B	864.09M
	Stockholders Equity
1.30B	1.62B	1.25B	844.06M	565.26M	508.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-228.21M	-93.50M	16.30M	204.38M	78.50M	-63.14M
	Operating Cash Flow
969.08M	959.03M	712.03M	689.77M	401.39M	93.78M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.23B	-1.05B	-699.31M	-582.71M	-295.46M	-156.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
824.52M	641.21M	19.56M	-143.20M	6.53M	30.89M

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price50.04

Price Trends

50DMA

45.17

Positive

100DMA

49.73

Positive

200DMA

49.49

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.98

Negative

RSI

63.95

Neutral

STOCH

92.08

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.19, above the 50-day MA of 45.17, and above the 200-day MA of 49.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIST.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	75 Outperform	$4.75B	9.98	32.69%	―	54.19%	37.69%
MUR	74 Outperform	$3.28B	8.82	7.54%	5.60%	-14.90%	-27.53%
CRC	74 Outperform	$3.76B	7.64	17.86%	3.49%	41.68%	53.13%
MGY	73 Outperform	$4.43B	11.41	20.85%	2.46%	8.78%	0.56%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.94B	15.19	19.93%	10.79%	-12.71%	-39.85%
CNX	62 Neutral	$4.48B	9.01	-7.30%	―	22.23%	-130.65%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$7.17B	3.84	-4.86%	5.83%	0.24%	-51.87%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VIST

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

51.27

4.72

10.14%

CNX

CNX Resources

32.64

8.45

34.93%

MUR

Murphy Oil

23.33

-19.05

-44.95%

BSM

Black Stone Minerals

13.90

-0.27

-1.91%

MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas

23.32

-2.16

-8.48%

CRC

California Resources Corp

42.16

-4.30

-9.26%

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 6.85%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlights Vista's strategic acquisition and robust production growth, indicating strong operational and financial performance. However, challenges such as a negative free cash flow and leverage concerns due to the acquisition indicate areas of financial strain. The overall sentiment reflects a balanced view between these positive and negative aspects.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Acquisition of Petronas Argentina

Vista acquired 50% of La Amarga Chica, a high return asset, enhancing production and EBITDA generation. The acquisition includes 46,000 acres in Vaca Muerta and a significant inventory of 200 wells.

Substantial Production Growth

Production in Q1 2025 was 80,900 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year. Oil production reached 69,600 barrels per day, also up 47% year-over-year.

Revenue and EBITDA Increase

Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $438 million, 38% higher than Q1 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $275 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase.

Cost Efficiency and Pipeline Expansion

Lifting costs remained controlled at $4.7 per BOE despite cost inflation. The inauguration of the Oldelval Duplicar pipeline significantly reduced selling expenses by minimizing trucking costs.

Negative Updates

Free Cash Flow Deficit

Free cash flow was negative $243 million in Q1 2025 due to high CapEx and increased working capital needs.

Leverage and Financing Needs

The acquisition led to a net leverage ratio of about 1.5x adjusted EBITDA, requiring additional financing to maintain balance sheet health in a volatile market.

Decline in Realized Oil Prices

The realized oil price averaged $68.6 per barrel, a 2% decrease year-over-year due to lower international prices.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Vista reported significant growth and strategic advancements. The company's production reached 80,900 BOEs per day, marking a 47% increase year-over-year, with oil production also rising by 47% to 69,600 barrels per day. Total revenues for the quarter were $438 million, a 38% increase from the previous year, driven by enhanced oil production. The lifting cost was $4.7 per BOE, an 8% year-over-year increase, while Capital Expenditure amounted to $268 million with 16 wells drilled and 10 completed, alongside $49 million invested in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 25% year-over-year to $275 million, with a net income of $83 million translating to an EPS of $0.9 per share. Despite a reported free cash flow of minus $243 million due to significant growth investments, the net leverage ratio remained robust at 0.84x adjusted EBITDA. The company also announced the acquisition of Petronas Argentina, which is expected to enhance production and EBITDA generation, prompting a reevaluation of their 2025 market guidance, with further updates anticipated in their Q2 earnings call.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.