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Texas Capital Bancshares
(NASDAQ:TCBI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$113.00
▲(14.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability rebound and a notably de-risked balance sheet) and very attractive valuation (low P/E). Earnings call commentary adds support via strong operating momentum and constructive guidance, partially offset by credit/macro and balance-mix concerns. Technicals are mixed, with positive short-term price strength but a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Commercial loan growth
Sustained commercial loan expansion shows strengthening client demand and growing relevance in the bank’s core business franchise. Commercial lending now represents a larger share of loans, supporting recurring interest income and providing a durable platform for treasury, payments, and other fee relationships.
Negative Factors
Commercial real estate contraction
Persistent commercial real estate contraction removes a meaningful source of loan balances and interest income from the portfolio. Historically low construction starts and limited financing appetite may keep commitments declining, making replacement growth and efficient deployment of capital more important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial loan growth
Sustained commercial loan expansion shows strengthening client demand and growing relevance in the bank’s core business franchise. Commercial lending now represents a larger share of loans, supporting recurring interest income and providing a durable platform for treasury, payments, and other fee relationships.
Read all positive factors
Texas Capital Bancshares Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Loans Held for Investment Breakdown
Shows the composition and size of loans the bank keeps on its balance sheet (e.g., commercial real estate, construction, commercial & industrial, and consumer). For retail investors, it reveals where Texas Capital earns interest income and where credit risk and concentration lie; a high share of construction or CRE loans can boost near-term yields but raise loss risk in a downturn, while a diversified, seasoned loan book points to steadier earnings and lower default vulnerability.
Shows the composition and size of loans the bank keeps on its balance sheet (e.g., commercial real estate, construction, commercial & industrial, and consumer). For retail investors, it reveals where Texas Capital earns interest income and where credit risk and concentration lie; a high share of construction or CRE loans can boost near-term yields but raise loss risk in a downturn, while a diversified, seasoned loan book points to steadier earnings and lower default vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.43B
Dividend Yield0.39%
Average Volume (3M)596.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth3.07%
EPS Growth27.52%
CountryUS
Employees1,785
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.81
Shares Outstanding43,474,370
10 Day Avg. Volume553,905
30 Day Avg. Volume596,681
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio11.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.25Price Target Upside6.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)7.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.34B
Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. serves as the holding company for Texas Capital Bank, operating as a comprehensive financial services firm that delivers tailored solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual clients. Its offerings encompas...
How the Company Makes Money
TCBI makes money primarily through its banking subsidiary by earning interest income on loans and investment securities and by generating fee-based, noninterest income from banking services.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver)
- Loan in...
Texas Capital Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 21, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with record earnings, revenue, net interest income, fee income, pre-provision net revenue, commercial loan growth, improved full-year revenue guidance, strong capital ratios, and continued momentum in investment banking, treasury, and wealth management. The main challenges were declining commercial real estate and mortgage finance balances, lower total deposits linked to broker-deposit runoff, higher expenses from hiring and technology restructuring, and ongoing credit and macroeconomic pressures. Management nevertheless characterized the firm as operating from a position of financial resilience and maintained its positive operating leverage and credit outlook.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Earnings and Revenue
Adjusted earnings per share reached a record $2.35, up 8% year over year and 25% linked quarter. Adjusted total revenue reached a record $357 million, up 5% year over year, while adjusted pre-provision net revenue reached a record $157 million, also up 5% year over year. Adjusted net income to common was another record at $103 million.
Negative Updates
Commercial Real Estate Balances Continued to Decline
Commercial real estate balances decreased 7% linked quarter to $4.8 billion, were down 11% year to date and 16% year over year, as payoffs continued to outpace client appetite for financing new projects. Management expects balances to end the year around $4.4 billion and said historically low construction starts are likely to result in a continued downward trajectory for commitments and funded balances.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Earnings and Revenue
Adjusted earnings per share reached a record $2.35, up 8% year over year and 25% linked quarter. Adjusted total revenue reached a record $357 million, up 5% year over year, while adjusted pre-provision net revenue reached a record $157 million, also up 5% year over year. Adjusted net income to common was another record at $103 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter of 2026, total non interest expense is expected at $205 million to $210 million, including $125 million to $130 million of salaries and benefits expense and approximately $80 million of all other non interest expense; total non interest income is expected to be $70 million to $75 million, with investment banking and sales and trading contributing $45 million to $50 million, NII is expected at $270 million to $275 million and margin at 3.45% to 3.50%, and the mortgage finance self funding ratio is expected to increase to approximately 85%; for full-year 2026, adjusted total revenue growth is expected in the high single digits versus adjusted total revenue of $1.26 billion in 2025, full year noninterest income is expected to reach $295 million to $300 million, noninterest expense growth is expected in the mid to high single digits versus $768.9 million in 2025, and provision is expected at 35 to 40 basis points of average LHI, excluding mortgage finance, based on an additional 25 basis points increase in December and an upper bound of the Federal Funds target range of 4.25% at year end.Texas Capital Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.97B | 2.00B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.25B | 987.05M |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 1.21B | 865.35M | 1.00B | 910.76M | 909.30M |
| EBITDA | 723.53M | 495.88M | 161.29M | 287.07M | 477.04M | 431.46M |
| Net Income | 363.10M | 330.24M | 77.51M | 189.14M | 332.48M | 253.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.35B | 31.54B | 30.73B | 28.36B | 28.41B | 34.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.29B | 2.10B | 3.37B | 6.47B | 7.63B | 11.53B |
| Total Debt | 487.27M | 950.58M | 1.55B | 2.36B | 2.13B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.86B | 27.91B | 27.36B | 25.16B | 25.36B | 31.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 3.63B | 3.37B | 3.20B | 3.06B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 529.12M | 347.58M | 416.28M | 357.36M | 136.70M | 653.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 528.78M | 360.15M | 481.12M | 373.74M | 147.97M | 657.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -370.29M | -1.85B | -2.48B | -1.76B | 3.31B | 1.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -549.15M | 404.27M | 1.94B | -387.67M | -6.39B | -3.15B |
Texas Capital Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
98.54
Price Trends
95.47
Positive
98.36
Positive
98.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
71.02
Negative
92.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.66, above the 50-day MA of 95.47, and above the 200-day MA of 98.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.02 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBI.
Texas Capital Bancshares Risk Analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Capital Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $4.32B | 14.86 | 15.14% | 2.72% | 8.03% | 19.76% | |
78 Outperform | $4.43B | 11.47 | 10.11% | 0.39% | 3.07% | 27.52% | |
72 Outperform | $4.18B | 9.96 | 12.67% | 2.17% | 2.17% | 0.36% | |
70 Outperform | $1.75B | 19.91 | 3.53% | ― | 27.40% | -37.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $946.70M | 12.50 | 8.89% | 4.57% | -4.09% | -9.75% | |
67 Neutral | $662.87M | 8.73 | 11.91% | 218.92% | 17.96% | 9.46% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares
101.99
16.44
19.22%
FFIN
First Financial Bankshares
30.17
-0.34
-1.12%
IBOC
International Bancshares
67.16
0.55
0.82%
SBSI
Southside Bancshares
31.76
5.07
19.01%
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares
39.80
2.01
5.32%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
39.81
-0.34
-0.85%
Texas Capital Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Capital Bancshares Announces Chief Risk Officer Transition
Neutral
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. announced that Chief Risk Officer David Oman has departed his role, a move the company said was mutually agreed and not related to any disagreements or issues with its financial condition, cont...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Texas Capital Bancshares Shifts Listing to Texas Exchange
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares announced it would move the primary listing of its common and Series B preferred stock from Nasdaq to the Texas Stock Exchange, with Nasdaq trading set to end on October 7 and TXSE trading to begin o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.