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Texas Capital Bancshares
(NASDAQ:TCBI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(12.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
Overall score reflects strong improving fundamentals (margin recovery, lower leverage, and strong cash conversion) and a constructive earnings-call outlook supported by capital strength and diversified fee growth. Offsetting factors include mixed/neutral technical momentum, slight TTM revenue softness, and credit/portfolio mix risks (CRE contraction and modestly higher criticized credits), while valuation is reasonable but not boosted by dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Fee income diversification
Rapid growth across investment banking, wealth management and treasury services broadens revenue beyond lending spreads. This diversification can improve earnings resilience across rate cycles and deepen relationships with commercial clients.
Negative Factors
CRE portfolio contraction
The planned CRE reduction limits exposure to a challenged lending segment but also removes a source of loan growth and interest income. Prolonged weak demand or collateral pressure could further constrain portfolio expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee income diversification
Rapid growth across investment banking, wealth management and treasury services broadens revenue beyond lending spreads. This diversification can improve earnings resilience across rate cycles and deepen relationships with commercial clients.
Read all positive factors
Texas Capital Bancshares Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Loans Held for Investment Breakdown
Shows the composition and size of loans the bank keeps on its balance sheet (e.g., commercial real estate, construction, commercial & industrial, and consumer). For retail investors, it reveals where Texas Capital earns interest income and where credit risk and concentration lie; a high share of construction or CRE loans can boost near-term yields but raise loss risk in a downturn, while a diversified, seasoned loan book points to steadier earnings and lower default vulnerability.
Shows the composition and size of loans the bank keeps on its balance sheet (e.g., commercial real estate, construction, commercial & industrial, and consumer). For retail investors, it reveals where Texas Capital earns interest income and where credit risk and concentration lie; a high share of construction or CRE loans can boost near-term yields but raise loss risk in a downturn, while a diversified, seasoned loan book points to steadier earnings and lower default vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.29B
Dividend Yield0.2%
Average Volume (3M)487.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth3.11%
EPS Growth205.59%
CountryUS
Employees1,785
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.72
Shares Outstanding43,474,370
10 Day Avg. Volume452,694
30 Day Avg. Volume487,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio11.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.33Price Target Upside9.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)7.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.34B
Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. serves as the holding company for Texas Capital Bank, operating as a comprehensive financial services firm that delivers tailored solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual clients. Its offerings encompas...
How the Company Makes Money
TCBI primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning net interest income and generating noninterest income. (1) Net interest income: The core revenue driver is the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (such as ...
Texas Capital Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported strong, diversified revenue growth led by record fee income, double-digit improvements in tangible book value and sustained commercial loan and deposit growth. Capital ratios and allowances remain robust, and management is executing buybacks and a dividend while investing in front-line talent and technology. Near-term headwinds include CRE portfolio contraction, a modest rise in criticized credits and temporary margin pressure due to mortgage seasonality and funding mix, plus elevated but temporary noninterest expense items. On balance, the firm showcased momentum, disciplined credit posture and capital flexibility that outweigh the nearer-term challenges.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS and Earnings Growth
Adjusted earnings per share rose 15% year-over-year to $1.88; adjusted net income to common increased 9% to $82.7 million and GAAP net income to common rose 10% to $80.6 million, reflecting sustained earnings momentum.
Negative Updates
Commercial Real Estate Contraction
Commercial real estate loans declined 3% sequentially to $5.1 billion and were down 9% year-over-year; management expects full-year average CRE balances to decline approximately 12%, citing industry-wide capital supply outpacing demand.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS and Earnings Growth
Adjusted earnings per share rose 15% year-over-year to $1.88; adjusted net income to common increased 9% to $82.7 million and GAAP net income to common rose 10% to $80.6 million, reflecting sustained earnings momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its full‑year outlook (now assuming one Fed hike with a year‑end fed‑funds upper limit of ~4%) and expects total revenue growth in the mid‑ to high‑single‑digit range, with full‑year noninterest revenue of $270–$290 million and mid‑single‑digit noninterest expense growth; Q3 guidance calls for NII of $265–$270 million and noninterest income of $70–$75 million (investment banking and sales & trading ~$40–$45 million), with NIM expected in the low‑ to mid‑3.20% range before improving in Q4. They reiterated a provision outlook of 35–40 bps of average loans (ex‑mortgage finance), plan quarterly salaries & benefits of about $125 million and other noninterest expense near $75 million, and expect mortgage‑finance enhanced structures to be ~70% of balances (blended risk weight ~54%) with a mortgage self‑funding ratio of 70–75%. Capital and liquidity targets remain conservative: CET1 >11% (current CET1 12.07%, tangible common equity to tangible assets 9.87%), ~$102 million of repurchase capacity left after buying ~239k shares for $23.6 million in Q2 at a $97.63 average, and continued emphasis on disciplined capital deployment.Texas Capital Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 2.00B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.25B | 987.05M |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.21B | 865.35M | 1.00B | 910.76M | 909.30M |
| EBITDA | 541.80M | 480.00M | 161.29M | 287.07M | 477.04M | 431.46M |
| Net Income | 364.61M | 330.24M | 77.51M | 189.14M | 332.48M | 253.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.91B | 31.54B | 30.73B | 28.36B | 28.41B | 34.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.26B | 2.10B | 3.37B | 6.47B | 7.63B | 11.53B |
| Total Debt | 850.86M | 950.58M | 1.55B | 2.36B | 2.13B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.27B | 27.91B | 27.36B | 25.16B | 25.36B | 31.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.65B | 3.63B | 3.37B | 3.20B | 3.06B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 926.03M | 347.58M | 416.28M | 357.36M | 136.70M | 653.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 920.74M | 360.15M | 481.12M | 373.74M | 147.97M | 657.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -1.85B | -2.48B | -1.76B | 3.31B | 1.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.67B | 404.27M | 1.94B | -387.67M | -6.39B | -3.15B |
Texas Capital Bancshares Technical Analysis
Negative
99.25
Price Trends
101.14
Negative
100.61
Negative
97.72
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.72
Positive
42.55
Neutral
25.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 99.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.61, below the 50-day MA of 101.14, and above the 200-day MA of 97.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCBI.
Texas Capital Bancshares Risk Analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Capital Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.23B | 11.51 | 10.33% | 2.84% | 4.05% | 38.82% | |
75 Outperform | $3.93B | 14.94 | 7.66% | 2.89% | 34.13% | 25.12% | |
73 Outperform | $4.52B | 11.39 | 11.15% | 3.05% | 0.30% | 22.36% | |
72 Outperform | $4.29B | 12.76 | 10.04% | 0.20% | 3.11% | 205.59% | |
68 Neutral | $3.53B | 11.45 | 9.55% | 4.93% | -5.41% | 45.98% | |
68 Neutral | $3.75B | 12.21 | 8.13% | 2.12% | 27.48% | 31.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares
98.54
11.61
13.35%
FIBK
First Interstate Bancsystem
37.20
6.63
21.69%
FULT
Fulton Financial
23.80
4.66
24.32%
INDB
Independent Bank
82.78
13.14
18.86%
RNST
Renasant
41.04
2.51
6.52%
UCB
United Community Banks
35.22
2.57
7.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.