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Boston Beer
(NYSE:SAM)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$167.00
▼(-11.83% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/12/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals: strong cash generation and a conservatively financed balance sheet offset by a TTM swing to losses and very weak EBITDA profitability. Technicals are neutral-to-soft (stabilized near-term but still below longer-term averages), while valuation is pressured due to negative earnings. The latest earnings call adds a modestly constructive offset via margin and EPS guidance maintenance, but volume declines and litigation costs remain notable risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently positive operating and free cash flow gives Boston Beer internal funding capacity for innovation, marketing, capital spending, and shareholder returns. This resilience is especially valuable while reported earnings are under pressure and supports financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent volume and revenue contraction
Declining depletions and shipments indicate broad demand and distribution pressure rather than a purely accounting-driven slowdown. Continued volume weakness can dilute fixed-cost absorption, limit operating leverage, and make pricing and mix less effective in sustaining revenue over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently positive operating and free cash flow gives Boston Beer internal funding capacity for innovation, marketing, capital spending, and shareholder returns. This resilience is especially valuable while reported earnings are under pressure and supports financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Boston Beer (SAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.72B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)227.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth-6.06%
EPS Growth-195.51%
CountryUS
Employees2,736
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.79
Shares Outstanding8,223,681
10 Day Avg. Volume195,112
30 Day Avg. Volume227,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio9.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda215.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$199.64Price Target Upside5.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)8.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.92B
Boston Beer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading producer and marketer of alcoholic beverages, primarily focused on the United States market. Its most recognized offering is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. The company's diverse product portfolio features a r...
How the Company Makes Money
Boston Beer primarily makes money by selling its branded alcoholic beverages in wholesale quantities to a network of independent distributors, who then sell to retailers and on-premise accounts; revenue is generally recognized on shipment or deliv...
Boston Beer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and margin improvements (gross margin expansion, higher internal production, procurement savings, strong SunCruiser and Angry Orchard performance, reduced obsolete inventory, and strong cash/repurchase activity) offset meaningful top-line weakness (depletions down 6%, shipments down 4.5%, revenue down 3.3%), elevated marketing and freight costs, and substantial litigation-related expenses. Management maintained non-GAAP EPS guidance and raised the low end of gross margin guidance while trimming lower-return advertising; however, near-term volume headwinds and litigation uncertainty remain material risks.Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
Second-quarter gross margin of 50.4%, up 60 basis points year-over-year; company raised the low end of full-year gross margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50% driven by brewery efficiencies, favorable mix, procurement savings and price increases.
Negative Updates
Volume and Shipment Declines
Second-quarter depletions decreased 6% year-over-year and shipments decreased 4.5%; first-half shipments were down 5.6% and fiscal 29-week depletions declined 5%, with full-year volume guidance of down low single digits to down mid single digits and management expecting performance toward the lower end if current trends continue.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Margin Expansion
Second-quarter gross margin of 50.4%, up 60 basis points year-over-year; company raised the low end of full-year gross margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50% driven by brewery efficiencies, favorable mix, procurement savings and price increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Boston Beer reiterated 2026 guidance: full‑year volume expected down low‑single to mid‑single digits (first 29 weeks depletions down 5%, management sees results leaning to the lower end if current trends persist), with Q3 shipments expected to decline low‑ to mid‑single digits and modest shipment growth in Q4; full‑year shipments and depletions are expected to be broadly aligned. Financial targets include gross margin of 48.5%–50% (Q2 was 50.4%, +60 bps YoY), non‑GAAP EPS of $8.50–$10.50 with a non‑GAAP tax rate of ~29%–30%, and planned price increases of 1%–2% plus mix benefits. Operating assumptions note A&P/promotional/selling spend now expected flat to up $20M (vs prior +$20–$40M), tariff headwinds of $20–$30M (vs $11M partial 2025), freight costs up >35% YoY, domestic internal production >90% for 2026 (Q2: 84% vs 76% last year), distributor inventories ~4–4.5 weeks, and capex of $60–$80M (reduced from $70–$90M). Liquidity and capital return metrics: cash of $266M, $150M borrowing availability, YTD share repurchases of >$55M (recent buys $48.5M and $5.6M), and ~$174M remaining on a $1.6B repurchase authorization; management expects to deliver planned productivity savings and will flex advertising based on returns and commodity cost trends, with SunCruiser cited as a key H2 growth tailwind.Boston Beer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.09B | 2.01B | 2.01B | 2.09B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 941.13M | 952.58M | 893.73M | 852.37M | 861.99M | 797.79M |
| EBITDA | 8.16M | 243.90M | 245.78M | 209.96M | 207.41M | 129.27M |
| Net Income | -70.07M | 108.47M | 59.70M | 76.25M | 67.26M | 14.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.25B | 1.43B | 1.42B | 1.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 265.55M | 223.38M | 211.82M | 298.49M | 180.56M | 26.85M |
| Total Debt | 31.55M | 37.87M | 38.78M | 45.27M | 54.14M | 61.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 540.52M | 347.31M | 333.83M | 352.06M | 352.22M | 403.38M |
| Stockholders Equity | 714.57M | 846.28M | 916.19M | 1.08B | 1.07B | 983.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 206.02M | 215.59M | 172.62M | 201.06M | 109.36M | -91.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 259.29M | 270.16M | 248.89M | 265.15M | 199.94M | 56.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.19M | -54.52M | -96.25M | -62.38M | -88.51M | -146.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -153.01M | -204.08M | -239.31M | -84.84M | 2.80M | -6.64M |
Boston Beer Technical Analysis
Negative
189.41
Price Trends
176.85
Negative
176.98
Negative
200.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.98
Negative
45.10
Neutral
46.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 189.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.66, above the 50-day MA of 176.85, and below the 200-day MA of 200.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAM.
Boston Beer Risk Analysis
Boston Beer disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boston Beer reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boston Beer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $49.04B | 15.87 | 18.13% | 3.72% | 4.24% | 19.95% | |
68 Neutral | $19.28B | 10.80 | 23.13% | 3.62% | -9.99% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $12.09B | 17.06 | 17.80% | 3.45% | -0.18% | -13.00% | |
66 Neutral | $144.41B | 12.42 | 12.72% | 1.80% | 6.60% | 31.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $6.91B | -3.17 | -22.65% | 5.23% | -1.77% | -326.16% | |
55 Neutral | $1.72B | -24.70 | -8.89% | ― | -6.06% | -195.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SAM
Boston Beer
167.69
-49.62
-22.83%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
74.82
17.07
29.55%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
26.79
0.34
1.28%
STZ
Constellation Brands
113.31
-21.46
-15.92%
TAP
Molson Coors
36.52
-7.16
-16.39%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.25
1.18
56.85%
Boston Beer Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Boston Beer Names Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Aug 20, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Boston Beer’s Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer Diego Reynoso informed the company he would step down, with his departure not tied to any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices. Reynoso will remain throu...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Boston Beer Announces New $25 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Boston Beer Company approved a Rule 10b5-1 stock repurchase plan covering up to $25 million of its Class A Common Stock. The program is scheduled to run between September 28, 2026 and December 25, 2026, signaling managementR...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.