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Saia
(NASDAQ:SAIA)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$421.00
▼(-0.63% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage and solid profitability) and a constructive earnings narrative (record revenue, volume momentum, and pricing traction), partially offset by volatile free-cash-flow conversion. The rating is held back by a mixed technical picture (negative MACD and price below key moving averages) and a high P/E with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Volume and pricing growth
Broad shipment and tonnage growth, combined with contractual pricing gains, supports durable revenue expansion. Higher network utilization and improved yield can strengthen earnings as freight volumes mature.
Negative Factors
Margin compression
The decline from peak margins indicates that recent growth has not fully translated into sustained profitability improvement. Slower revenue growth also reduces operating leverage and leaves less room to absorb cost inflation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Volume and pricing growth
Broad shipment and tonnage growth, combined with contractual pricing gains, supports durable revenue expansion. Higher network utilization and improved yield can strengthen earnings as freight volumes mature.
Read all positive factors
Saia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Workdays
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySaia (SAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)384.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.6
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth4.84%
EPS Growth-4.34%
CountryUS
Employees14,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.39
Shares Outstanding26,674,650
10 Day Avg. Volume412,999
30 Day Avg. Volume384,776
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.39
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio319.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$445.07Price Target Upside5.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)11.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.61B
Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including ...
How the Company Makes Money
Saia primarily makes money by charging businesses to transport freight shipments that are too large for parcel delivery but do not require a full truckload—i.e., LTL shipments. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis and is influenced by fact...
Saia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported a record quarter with strong revenue (+17.1% YoY), improving shipment and tonnage trends, operating income and EPS gains, service and safety improvements, successful network expansion and early pricing traction (10.7% renewals, 7.1% GRI). Offsetting pressures include sharply higher fuel and purchased transportation costs, wage inflation and a continued LA regional mix headwind that have raised cost per shipment and will temper near‑term operating ratio improvement. Management expects further improvement as network investments mature and pricing takes hold, while acknowledging short‑term volatility from fuel and GRI timing.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $956.5M, a record for any quarter and up 17.1% year‑over‑year.
Negative Updates
Elevated Fuel Costs and Higher Fuel Share
Fuel surcharge represented 22.3% of total revenue versus 14.6% last year. Fuel expense rose ~49.6% YoY driven by a ~50.3% increase in national average diesel prices, materially increasing operating cost.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $956.5M, a record for any quarter and up 17.1% year‑over‑year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q3 should see roughly a 100‑basis‑point sequential deterioration in the operating ratio (better than the typical 150–200 bps Q2→Q3 seasonal swing), assuming national average diesel holds near current levels (Q2 fuel expense was +49.6% YoY with diesel +50.3% YoY and fuel surcharge was 22.3% of Q2 revenue); July month‑to‑date shipments are tracking about +1% and tonnage +7.5% (Q2 shipments per workday +4.4%, tonnage per workday +8.4%), a 7.1% GRI was implemented in early July and contract renewals ran 10.7% for June/the quarter, management noted two recent wage increases (together roughly a ~1‑point OR impact), said Q3 assumes normal seasonal shipments for the quarter, and emphasized continued focus on pricing and mix to lift revenue per shipment (Q2 revenue per shipment ex‑fuel $303.12, +1.5% YoY; June ex‑fuel improved ~4% vs April).Saia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.39B | 3.23B | 3.21B | 2.88B | 2.79B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 546.73M | 516.62M | 644.41M | 598.93M | 590.96M | 451.69M |
| EBITDA | 632.16M | 602.41M | 695.04M | 647.61M | 627.86M | 477.69M |
| Net Income | 277.96M | 255.04M | 362.06M | 354.86M | 357.42M | 253.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.72B | 3.48B | 3.17B | 2.58B | 2.17B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.01M | 19.72M | 19.47M | 296.21M | 187.39M | 106.59M |
| Total Debt | 269.19M | 418.11M | 324.46M | 138.71M | 154.51M | 160.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 998.23M | 904.98M | 855.59M | 642.07M | 595.37M | 624.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.31B | 1.94B | 1.58B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 255.23M | 27.33M | -459.86M | 138.07M | 105.60M | 96.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 606.39M | 594.97M | 583.70M | 577.95M | 473.03M | 382.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -326.58M | -552.52M | -1.04B | -448.70M | -365.51M | -277.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -214.63M | -42.20M | 175.42M | -20.42M | -26.71M | -23.46M |
Saia Technical Analysis
Negative
423.68
Price Trends
410.15
Negative
422.09
Negative
381.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-13.06
Negative
38.44
Neutral
28.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 423.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 373.92, above the 50-day MA of 410.15, and above the 200-day MA of 381.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAIA.
Saia Risk Analysis
Saia disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Saia reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Saia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $9.58B | 34.61 | 10.63% | ― | 4.84% | -4.34% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $6.13B | 54.91 | 3.68% | 1.06% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
60 Neutral | $11.35B | 258.61 | 0.61% | 1.05% | 4.07% | -74.05% | |
58 Neutral | $3.08B | 194.13 | 1.26% | 0.31% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
52 Neutral | $2.28B | -49.34 | -3.39% | 1.32% | 9.64% | -190.02% | |
52 Neutral | $1.21B | 94.91 | 1.65% | 1.47% | -6.87% | -39.59% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SAIA
Saia
359.63
65.68
22.34%
KNX
Knight Transportation
69.41
27.26
64.68%
MRTN
Marten Transport
14.73
3.21
27.85%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
38.05
10.42
37.70%
ARCB
ArcBest
135.89
64.17
89.47%
SNDR
Schneider National
35.14
11.06
45.90%
Saia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Delivers Record Q2 Revenue and Operational Gains
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Saia reported record second-quarter revenue of $956.5 million, up 17.1% year over year, with shipments and tonnage per workday rising and operating income increasing 26% to $125 million. The operating ratio improved to 86.9%, dri...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Strong LTL Volume and Tonnage Growth
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Saia reported that its less-than-truckload operating metrics for April and May 2026 showed solid year-over-year gains, signaling continued volume and freight-mix strength. In April, LTL shipments per workday rose 5.6%, tonnage per...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.