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Rithm Capital
(NYSE:RITM)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–¼(-6.59% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/24/26
The score is weighed down primarily by weak cash generation (negative operating/free cash flow) and high leverage, despite strong top-line growth and profitability on an earnings basis. Offsetting factors include an attractive income profile (10.65% yield), a generally constructive price trend above major moving averages, and a mostly positive earnings call with dividend coverage, stable book value/liquidity, and multi-year growth and cost-savings targets.
Positive Factors
Diversified operating platform
Rithm’s scale across mortgage servicing, origination, credit, asset management and real estate creates multiple earnings channels rather than reliance on one activity. This diversification can improve resilience through changing housing, credit and interest-rate cycles while supporting broader capital deployment opportunities.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage increases Rithm’s sensitivity to funding costs, asset values and credit conditions because borrowings amplify both gains and losses. It can also restrict financial flexibility during weaker markets, making balance-sheet resilience and disciplined capital allocation especially important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified operating platform
Rithm’s scale across mortgage servicing, origination, credit, asset management and real estate creates multiple earnings channels rather than reliance on one activity. This diversification can improve resilience through changing housing, credit and interest-rate cycles while supporting broader capital deployment opportunities.
Read all positive factors
Rithm Capital (RITM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.24B
Dividend Yield10.65%
Average Volume (3M)7.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth26.36%
EPS Growth-56.25%
CountryUS
Employees7,240
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding558,407,040
10 Day Avg. Volume7,604,883
30 Day Avg. Volume7,160,249
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.33Price Target Upside21.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.86B
Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Port...
How the Company Makes Money
Rithm Capital primarily makes money through a combination of (1) net interest income from investing in mortgage-related assets, (2) cash flows and valuation changes associated with mortgage servicing rights, and (3) fees earned through its asset m...
Rithm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported strong third-quarter earnings, sustained dividend coverage, high operating ROEs, record or expanding activity across Genesis, NewRez and asset management, improving New York and San Francisco leasing trends, and substantial technology-driven savings opportunities. The main challenges were the higher-rate and wider-spread environment, lower mortgage origination volumes, wholesale margin pressure, San Francisco occupancy of 65%, a slight increase in certain delinquencies, and the company's continued valuation discount.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Earnings and Dividend Coverage
Third-quarter earnings available for distribution were $315 million, or $0.55 per diluted share. GAAP net income was $217 million, or $0.08 per diluted share. EAD exceeded dividends paid for 28 consecutive quarters, cumulative dividends paid were approximately $6.8 billion, and the common stock dividend was $0.25 per diluted share, representing an 11.2% dividend yield.
Negative Updates
Pressure on Wholesale Gain-on-Sale Margins
Management said the wholesale market remained very competitive and that gain-on-sale margins would face more pressure in the fourth quarter. The company maintained pricing discipline and said it would not chase market share.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Earnings and Dividend Coverage
Third-quarter earnings available for distribution were $315 million, or $0.55 per diluted share. GAAP net income was $217 million, or $0.08 per diluted share. EAD exceeded dividends paid for 28 consecutive quarters, cumulative dividends paid were approximately $6.8 billion, and the common stock dividend was $0.25 per diluted share, representing an 11.2% dividend yield.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects to deliver AUM of about 75 billion to $80 billion by the end of 2028, drive going forward $125 million in savings for Newrez, see those savings kick in 2027 and continue through 2027, 2028, launch straight through processing of eligible loans in the fourth quarter, and begin phased migration of loans to ValonOS in the first quarter of 2 thousand 27; Genesis production is expected to be something between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, with mid teens returns, while multifamily originations are expected to grow significantly over time, NewRez production from September to October is likely going to see something close to about 25%, and Elecor’s capital improvement strategy is expected to drive significant rent growth in occupancy gains in 2026 and beyond.Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.66B | 5.69B | 4.74B | 3.76B | 1.67B | 2.90B |
| Gross Profit | 4.51B | 5.14B | 4.47B | 3.58B | 1.03B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.35B | 3.22B | 2.18B | 2.06B | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 472.30M | 681.45M | 931.50M | 622.26M | 954.52M | 772.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 54.11B | 53.06B | 46.05B | 39.72B | 34.59B | 39.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.55B | 7.08B | 11.17B | 9.82B | 9.29B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 40.23B | 39.58B | 32.79B | 26.96B | 25.33B | 31.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 44.66B | 43.81B | 38.16B | 32.62B | 27.58B | 33.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.52B | 8.43B | 7.79B | 7.01B | 6.94B | 6.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.73B | -762.62M | -2.32B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.73B | -762.62M | -2.19B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 14.21M | 2.24B | -2.43B | 216.72M | 132.90M | 2.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10B | -602.12M | 4.83B | -842.55M | -5.82B | -4.74B |
Rithm Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
10.17
Price Trends
9.22
Positive
9.15
Positive
9.27
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
62.85
Neutral
71.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.67, above the 50-day MA of 9.22, and above the 200-day MA of 9.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RITM.
Rithm Capital Risk Analysis
Rithm Capital disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rithm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rithm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.56B | 21.81 | 7.83% | 5.85% | 8.96% | 92.38% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $795.27M | 6.93 | 4.81% | 6.30% | 8.24% | 11.34% | |
59 Neutral | $585.83M | 22.63 | 11.69% | 9.99% | 10.78% | -30.46% | |
55 Neutral | $5.24B | 14.67 | 5.90% | 10.65% | 26.36% | -56.25% | |
53 Neutral | $1.67B | -26.67 | -0.84% | 10.56% | -29.60% | 77.14% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.39
-0.46
-4.70%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.01
1.65
15.89%
SAFE
Safehold
11.23
-3.78
-25.19%
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
63.90
0.65
1.03%
NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
4.89
1.77
56.93%
GNL
Global Net Lease
7.20
0.14
1.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.