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Safehold
(NYSE:SAFE)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–¼(-28.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and revenue growth but is capped by weak/volatile cash generation and elevated leverage. Technical conditions are a major near-term headwind (below key moving averages with very weak momentum), partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and ~6% yield) and generally positive recent corporate developments that enhance scale and financing flexibility.
Positive Factors
Revenue and profitability
Revenue has expanded from $187.0M in 2021 to $413.4M TTM, while the company has returned to a roughly 28% net margin after its 2023 loss. This combination indicates meaningful operating scale and currently strong earnings power.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt has increased substantially alongside asset growth and now stands at about 1.91 times equity. Elevated leverage can reduce financial flexibility, increase sensitivity to financing costs, and constrain Safehold’s ability to absorb weaker operating conditions or fund expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and profitability
Revenue has expanded from $187.0M in 2021 to $413.4M TTM, while the company has returned to a roughly 28% net margin after its 2023 loss. This combination indicates meaningful operating scale and currently strong earnings power.
Read all positive factors
Safehold Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Portfolio by Geography
Breaks down Safehold’s holdings by region, showing geographic concentration and exposure to local economic, regulatory, or market risks; geographic diversification can reduce vulnerability to a single-market downturn.
Breaks down Safehold’s holdings by region, showing geographic concentration and exposure to local economic, regulatory, or market risks; geographic diversification can reduce vulnerability to a single-market downturn.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySafehold (SAFE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$795.27M
Dividend Yield6.3%
Average Volume (3M)661.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth8.24%
EPS Growth11.34%
CountryUS
Employees72
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.62
Shares Outstanding70,816,280
10 Day Avg. Volume670,690
30 Day Avg. Volume661,466
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio20.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside0.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$451.27M
Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is fundamentally transforming real estate ownership by offering property owners an innovative and superior method to extract the inherent value from the land supporting their structures. Through its modern ground lease f...
How the Company Makes Money
Safehold makes money primarily by generating contractual ground rent income from long-duration ground leases. Under its model, Safehold invests capital to acquire the land (or create a ground lease position) beneath an existing or new commercial p...
Safehold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple positive developments—credit rating upgrades to single-A, improved liquidity ($1.2B), a $400M unsecured term loan that reduced near-term refinancing risk, steady portfolio growth (portfolio $7.1B, UCA $9.3B, 21x growth since IPO), and YoY EPS improvement (Q4 ex-items +15%, FY ex-items +5%). Management also laid out strategic initiatives (affordable housing expansion, one-stop capital solutions, buybacks) and highlighted attractive economic yield upside (5.9% economic yield, 7.3% after Carat uplift). Key challenges included an unrecognized Carat valuation that requires market conditions to monetize, concentration of originations in California, ongoing Park Hotels litigation (court date 2027, ~$7M cost), a decline in management fee revenue, and contingent buyback execution tied to leverage and market timing. Overall, the positive operational and capital-markets progress and multiple credit and liquidity wins outweigh the outstanding uncertainties and contingent costs.Positive Updates
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Negative Updates
Carat Value Largely Unrecognized
Management emphasized that Carat represents significant unrealized value that the market is not recognizing today; monetization or liquidity events are dependent on market activity, investor sentiment, and continued portfolio growth—no definitive near-term monetization plan announced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Safehold’s guidance for 2026 is focused on three priorities: grow ground‑lease originations above 2025 levels (in 2025 the company closed 17 ground leases totaling $277M and funded $252M for the year; Q4 closed 10 transactions with $167M commitments and $60M funded), increase visibility/monetization of Carat (management cites UCA of ~$9.3B versus a $7.1B portfolio and says Carat upside could lift economic yield from 5.9% to ~7.3% using Safehold’s 84% stake), and begin share repurchases when trading windows and market conditions allow while remaining leverage‑disciplined (target total debt/ equity ~2.0x; every $240M funded raises leverage ~0.1x) and preserving liquidity (~$1.2B cash/credit availability); key portfolio and funding metrics to watch are GLTV 52%, rent coverage 3.4x, cash yield 3.8% / GAAP annualized yield 5.4% / economic yield 5.9% (81% of leases have CPI lookbacks; Fed breakeven 2.25% implied inflation‑adjusted yield ~6.1%), effective permanent debt cost 4.3% (portfolio cash interest 3.9%), weighted average debt maturity ~18 years, and ratings A3 / A- / A-.Safehold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 413.43M | 385.55M | 365.69M | 352.58M | 270.31M | 187.01M |
| Gross Profit | 389.94M | 363.70M | 361.46M | 347.93M | 267.20M | 184.35M |
| EBITDA | 338.76M | 335.11M | 320.36M | 140.41M | 285.57M | 165.05M |
| Net Income | 116.17M | 114.47M | 105.76M | -54.97M | 135.42M | 73.12M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.52B | 7.25B | 6.90B | 6.55B | 5.85B | 4.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.92M | 23.73M | 15.58M | 28.47M | 20.07M | 29.62M |
| Total Debt | 4.65B | 4.49B | 4.23B | 3.97B | 3.53B | 2.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.89B | 4.81B | 4.53B | 4.25B | 3.69B | 2.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.44B | 2.41B | 2.34B | 2.23B | 2.14B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 36.95M | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | -1.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.95M | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | 26.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -151.77M | -237.18M | -212.37M | -576.57M | -1.15B | -1.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 117.99M | 202.98M | 144.89M | 559.53M | 1.09B | 1.20B |
Safehold Technical Analysis
Negative
15.35
Price Trends
13.23
Negative
14.46
Negative
14.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.59
Negative
35.50
Neutral
28.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.68, above the 50-day MA of 13.23, and above the 200-day MA of 14.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAFE.
Safehold Risk Analysis
Safehold disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Safehold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Safehold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.56B | 21.81 | 7.83% | 5.85% | 8.96% | 92.38% | |
69 Neutral | $3.33B | 22.84 | 5.00% | 6.73% | 6.71% | 46.35% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $795.27M | 6.93 | 4.81% | 6.30% | 8.24% | 11.34% | |
59 Neutral | $585.83M | 22.63 | 11.69% | 9.99% | 10.78% | -30.46% | |
58 Neutral | $487.79M | 15.20 | 10.50% | 8.05% | 9.52% | 21.63% | |
53 Neutral | $1.67B | -26.67 | -0.84% | 10.56% | -29.60% | 77.14% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
SAFE
Safehold
11.23
-3.71
-24.85%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.01
1.63
15.69%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
22.35
3.28
17.21%
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
63.90
0.69
1.09%
GNL
Global Net Lease
7.20
0.15
2.11%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease
17.36
-0.23
-1.32%
Safehold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Safehold extends Star Holdings loan and management agreements
Positive
Oct 2, 2026
On September 29, 2026, Safehold Inc., as lender, executed a third amendment to its term loan credit agreement with Star Holdings that extends the loan maturity to March 31, 2029, with an option to further extend to September 30, 2029 under specifi...
Business Operations and Strategy
Safehold relocates principal executive offices to One Penn Plaza
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Safehold Inc. relocated its principal executive offices on August 1, 2026, moving its headquarters to One Penn Plaza, 51st Floor, New York, NY 10119 from its prior location on the 39th Floor at 1114 Avenue of the Americas in New York. The change c...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Safehold Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results, Expands Ground Lease Platform
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
Safehold Inc. reported second‑quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, highlighting revenue of $114.6 million and net income attributable to common shareholders of $30.2 million, or $0.42 per share. The company noted an increase in estimated U...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Safehold highlights CBRE-backed valuation of ground lease portfolio
Neutral
Jul 30, 2026
Safehold Inc. operates in the real estate and ground lease sector, focusing on owning and managing ground leases underlying commercial properties. The company structures its portfolio through entities such as Portfolio Holdings, which issues GL un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.