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Empire State Realty (ESRT) AI Stock Analysis
Empire State Realty
(NYSE:ESRT)
The score is driven primarily by solid cash-flow strength and improving operating indicators (leasing and occupancy), reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance and balance-sheet flexibility (no unaddressed maturities until 2029). Offsetting factors are elevated leverage, the sharp TTM profitability deterioration (near break-even earnings), and the material Observation Deck weakness. Technicals are moderately positive but not fully supportive on a long-term trend basis, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings despite a moderate dividend yield.
Empire State Realty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Office & Retail Total Rentable Square FootageTotal rentable square feet in the office and retail portfolio, conveying the company’s operating scale and exposure to commercial real estate trends. Useful for assessing concentration risks, revenue per square foot, and the magnitude of leasing or renovation needs when market conditions shift.
Empire State Realty’s rentable footprint has contracted in stepped declines over the past few years—reflecting active capital recycling and disposals—so the company is prioritizing quality over scale. Management’s leasing execution (high occupancy, multi‑year leases and positive Manhattan mark‑to‑market spreads) and a deeper pipeline support backfilling known vacates, cushioning cash flow despite a smaller asset base. The tradeoff: a lower absolute growth runway and potentially lumpy near‑term occupancy if a few large lease-ups slip, so track pipeline conversion and NOI per square foot.
The FlyEmpire State Realty (ESRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $907.31M
- Dividend Yield
- 2.66%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 3.94M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -1097.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.88
- Revenue Growth
- 1.68%
- EPS Growth
- -104.37%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 642
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- REIT - Diversified
Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT) functions as a leading real estate investment trust (REIT), focused on the acquisition, ownership, management, operation, and revitalization of commercial office and retail assets across Manhattan and the...
How the Company Makes Money
ESRT generates revenue primarily through (1) commercial leasing income and (2) observatory admissions, with additional income from other real-estate-related sources typical to property owners. 1) Office and retail rental revenue (core real estate cas...
Empire State Realty Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly constructive, with strong office and multifamily leasing, a 95.6% commercial lease rate, continued positive rent spreads, substantial share repurchases, strong liquidity, cost-reduction progress, sustainability leadership, and raised 2026 core FFO guidance. These positives were tempered by a significant decline in Observation Deck visitation and NOI, lower FFO, operating expense pressure, the FDIC-related revenue decline, and a lower-volume transaction market. Overall, the positive operating and capital allocation developments significantly outweighed the challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, ESRT remains on track to reduce run rate G&A by approximately 5% to 10% by year-end, with additional cost reduction initiatives that could yield at least a further 2% reduction in G&A relative to our year-end 2026 run rate that will benefit from throughout 2027; 2026 core FFO per share guidance now stands at $0.77 to $0.80 per fully diluted share, with no change to our Observation Deck framework, and the company has no unaddressed debt maturities until March 2029. Management anticipates that the first opportunities for improvement at the Observation Deck may be seen in the high season in the summer of '27, although “We may see something before then.”
Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue scale improved over multiple years and cash generation is strong (TTM operating cash flow ~$297M; TTM free cash flow ~$155M). Offsetting this, profitability weakened sharply in the latest TTM period (near break-even net margin and negative gross profit), and balance-sheet risk remains meaningful with high absolute debt despite improved leverage metrics from higher equity.
Income Statement
55NeutralBalance Sheet
48NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 784.18M | 768.27M | 763.15M | 739.57M | 707.01M | 607.86M |
| Gross Profit | -179.46M | 13.73M | 408.99M | 400.56M | 385.65M | 328.38M |
| EBITDA | 319.52M | 374.08M | 377.57M | 378.52M | 382.86M | 281.43M |
| Net Income | 7.27M | 47.60M | 51.64M | 53.24M | 40.64M | -6.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.27B | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.22B | 4.16B | 4.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.61M | 166.51M | 385.46M | 346.62M | 264.43M | 423.69M |
| Total Debt | 2.23B | 2.44B | 2.48B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.48B | 2.65B | 2.73B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 1.06B | 1.03B | 985.52M | 954.38M | 998.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 103.84M | 50.55M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 84.91M | 117.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 227.64M | 249.05M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 211.17M | 212.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -699.23M | -550.01M | -397.12M | -77.34M | -230.89M | -212.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 292.59M | 38.17M | 158.58M | -62.87M | -140.24M | -93.05M |
Empire State Realty Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.86, above the 50-day MA of 4.50, and above the 200-day MA of 5.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.47 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESRT.
Empire State Realty Risk Analysis
Empire State Realty disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Empire State Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksEmpire State Realty Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CTO65Neutral- ESRT62Neutral
GOOD61Neutral
AAT57Neutral
NYC49Neutral
JBGS44Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| CTO | 65Neutral | $774.43M | 17.95 | 7.15% | 7.43% | 15.86% | ― |
| ESRT | 62Neutral | $874.31M | -1097.92 | 0.19% | 2.66% | 1.68% | -104.37% |
| GOOD | 61Neutral | $562.41M | 27.23 | 6.29% | 11.02% | 10.65% | -33.01% |
| AAT | 57Neutral | $1.33B | 62.76 | 2.01% | 6.16% | -8.18% | -65.65% |
| NYC | 49Neutral | $19.17M | 1.22 | 21.10% | ― | -38.85% | ― |
| JBGS | 44Neutral | $874.53M | -4.71 | -13.35% | 5.70% | -1.08% | -37.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust Inc | 5.27 | -1.83 | -25.77% | |
| CTO | Cto Realty Growth, Inc. | 20.46 | 4.65 | 29.42% | |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial | 10.89 | 1.26 | 13.07% | |
| AAT | American Assets Trust | 22.09 | 4.39 | 24.77% | |
| JBGS | Jbg Smith Properties | 12.29 | -5.16 | -29.55% | |
| NYC | New York City Reit, Inc. | 6.19 | -2.56 | -29.26% |
Empire State Realty Corporate Events
Empire State Realty Reports Third-Quarter Results and Leasing Strength
PositiveOn November 2, 2026, ESRT reported third-quarter net income of $0.02 per diluted share and Core FFO of $0.20 per share. Same-store property cash NOI rose 0.5% year over year, while the commercial portfolio was 95.6% leased and 92.3% occupied as of Se...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2026