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Redwire
(NYSE:RDW)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-30.31% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call points to strong operational momentum with reaffirmed high-growth guidance, book-to-bill above 1, record backlog, and materially improved liquidity and lower debt.
Positive Factors
High growth and backlog visibility
Rapid revenue expansion, bookings above revenue, and record contracted backlog provide meaningful multi-quarter demand visibility. This combination supports management’s reaffirmed growth outlook and gives Redwire a stronger foundation for scaling its space and defense businesses.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
Despite strong revenue growth and better gross margin, Redwire remains far from break-even, with substantial net and operating losses. If the cost structure does not scale, continued losses could consume liquidity and limit the company’s ability to fund growth internally.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High growth and backlog visibility
Rapid revenue expansion, bookings above revenue, and record contracted backlog provide meaningful multi-quarter demand visibility. This combination supports management’s reaffirmed growth outlook and gives Redwire a stronger foundation for scaling its space and defense businesses.
Read all positive factors
Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRedwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)13.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.09
Revenue Growth63.10%
EPS Growth55.06%
CountryUS
Employees1,410
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.46
Shares Outstanding249,992,610
10 Day Avg. Volume11,656,586
30 Day Avg. Volume13,100,605
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.71
P/FCF Ratio-4.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-13.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.19Price Target Upside23.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$475.34M
Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments Space and Defense Tech. The company offers sensor...
Redwire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operational and financial improvements: record revenue, record backlog, materially stronger liquidity, a sharp reduction in debt and interest expense, improved gross margin, and clear product and contract momentum across both Space and Defense Tech. Key investments (R&D, facility expansions, inventory) and strategic milestones (Starfall purchase, ROSA selection, NATO UAS award) position the company for scaling. Remaining challenges include an ongoing GAAP net loss and negative adjusted EBITDA, a notable inventory build that pressures near-term cash, elevated R&D spend, and uncertainty around gross margin sustainability due to potential EAC adjustments and lumpy award timing. Overall, the positives—especially the sharp YoY revenue growth, backlog gains, and balance sheet strengthening—outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Total revenue of $117.1M in Q2 2026, up 20.7% sequentially and 89.6% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue of $214M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $450M to $500M (midpoint implies ~41.6% YoY growth).
Negative Updates
Continuing Net Loss and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Net loss improved by $56M YoY to a net loss of $41M in Q2 2026, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.2M. Profitability milestones are improving but GAAP losses and negative EBITDA persist.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Total revenue of $117.1M in Q2 2026, up 20.7% sequentially and 89.6% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue of $214M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $450M to $500M (midpoint implies ~41.6% YoY growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Redwire reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $450–$500 million (midpoint implying ~41.6% YoY growth), citing year‑to‑date revenue of $214 million and Q2 revenue of $117.1 million (up 20.7% sequential and 89.6% YoY; Space $55.2M; Defense Tech $61.9M), Q2 bookings of $165.8 million and more than $350 million in bookings over the last two quarters, a Q2 book‑to‑bill of 1.42 (LTM 1.52), and record contracted backlog of $542.1 million (Space $322.0M; Defense Tech $220.2M) as drivers of confidence for second‑half growth. Management also highlighted record Q2 gross margin of 27.8% while guiding near‑term gross margin to the low‑to‑mid‑20s, adjusted EBITDA of negative $3.2M, net loss of $41M (improved $56M YoY), record liquidity of $607.8M (cash $557.8M; $50M undrawn revolver), debt reduced 75% to $48.9M, net interest expense < $1M (vs $23.8M in Q2 2025), shares outstanding of 249.9M, R&D investment in Q2 up to $12.5M, and a ~23% sequential rise in inventory.Redwire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 426.27M | 335.38M | 304.10M | 243.80M | 160.55M | 137.60M |
| Gross Profit | 85.66M | 17.29M | 44.45M | 57.97M | 28.70M | 29.38M |
| EBITDA | -170.96M | -179.22M | -21.40M | -4.81M | -35.30M | -32.99M |
| Net Income | -244.10M | -226.55M | -114.31M | -27.26M | -130.62M | -61.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.94B | 1.45B | 292.62M | 271.27M | 257.70M | 261.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 557.72M | 95.18M | 49.07M | 30.28M | 28.32M | 20.52M |
| Total Debt | 87.10M | 231.30M | 144.98M | 105.83M | 95.08M | 78.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 313.49M | 389.12M | 344.53M | 218.44M | 187.81M | 154.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.06B | -51.91M | 52.60M | 69.66M | 107.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -102.82M | -190.81M | -23.75M | -7.10M | -35.81M | -40.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -76.19M | -177.33M | -17.35M | 1.23M | -31.66M | -37.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.78M | -175.07M | -7.20M | -8.33M | -37.38M | -38.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 585.47M | 397.50M | 43.72M | 9.06M | 76.56M | 74.21M |
Redwire Technical Analysis
Negative
11.48
Price Trends
10.34
Negative
10.96
Negative
11.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.58
Negative
44.56
Neutral
76.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.22, above the 50-day MA of 10.34, and above the 200-day MA of 11.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RDW.
Redwire Risk Analysis
Redwire disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Redwire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $35.07B | -211.63 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
52 Neutral | $2.25B | -6.17 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
51 Neutral | $585.75M | -6.22 | -3465.39% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $3.32B | -8.31 | -32.55% | 7.52% | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
49 Neutral | $1.68B | -11.60 | -33.05% | ― | 10.63% | -28.03% | |
46 Neutral | $2.65B | -12.34 | 29.79% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RDW
Redwire
9.01
1.37
17.93%
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LUNR
Intuitive Machines
11.59
0.22
1.93%
VOYG
Voyager Technologies, Inc. Class A
27.14
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-10.25%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
19.85
-4.60
-18.81%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.