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Post Holdings Inc. Common Stoc (POST)
:POST
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Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
67Neutral
Positive Factors
Acquisition Strategy
The acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho LLC is expected to expand Post Holdings Inc.'s potato sales by 10-15%.
Earnings
POST again topped profit expectations despite material volumes pressures in 3 of 4 segments, partially driven by SKU rationalization to cut low margin items.
Share Buyback
Post repurchased 1.6m shares in the quarter for $181.1 million and repurchased an additional 1m shares for $106.9 million subsequent to the quarter.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
POST's volumes are soft, and they expect to incur an incremental $30-$50mm in avian-flu related cost pressures in FQ2.
Sales Performance
Sales impacted by multiple strategic rationalizations and FQ2 faces temporary profit dislocation from unfavorable cost/pricing in eggs before expected recovery.
Volume Headwinds
Persistent volume headwinds have led to a trimming of the price target.
Post Holdings (POST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)707.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.2
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth1.48%
EPS Growth9.36%
CountryUS
Employees11,480
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength71
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.41
Shares Outstanding55,718,597
10 Day Avg. Volume782,061
30 Day Avg. Volume707,135
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio10.99
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.25Price Target Upside17.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPost Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyPost Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its diverse product offerings across its various segments. The Post Consumer Brands segment focuses on ready-to-eat cereals, while the Weetabix segment delivers cereal and cereal-related products primarily in the United Kingdom. The Refrigerated Retail segment sells a range of refrigerated and frozen products, including side dishes and egg-based items. The Foodservice segment supplies egg and potato products to foodservice distributors and operators. Additionally, the BellRing Brands segment contributes significantly through the sale of protein-based nutrition products like shakes and bars. Post Holdings benefits from its strategic partnerships and distribution agreements, which help expand its market reach and consumer base. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as consumer demand, commodity costs, and operational efficiencies.
Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Post Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with effective cost management. However, the relatively high leverage reflected in the Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.79 poses a potential risk. The company maintains a healthy ROE and cash flow position, indicating a stable yet leveraged growth trajectory with good operational efficiency and cash generation capabilities.Income Statement
Post Holdings shows robust profitability with a stable Gross Profit Margin of approximately 29% in TTM. The Net Profit Margin improved to 4.9% from 4.6% annually, indicating efficient cost management. Revenue growth is evident at 13.4% from 2023 to 2024, showcasing strong market demand. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 10.3% and 14.6% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio is relatively high at 1.79, which poses a potential risk if interest rates rise. However, Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 10.1% TTM, reflecting effective use of shareholders' funds. The Equity Ratio remains stable at around 30%, indicating a balanced capital structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow shows positive growth at 16.8% from the previous year, indicating healthy cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 1.93, demonstrating efficient cash conversion. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.04 supports sustainable operations.78
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 7.93B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 6.23B | 5.70B | Gross Profit |
| 2.30B | 2.30B | 1.88B | 1.47B | 1.81B | 1.79B | EBIT |
| 816.20M | 793.50M | 598.90M | 415.60M | 655.70M | 700.50M | EBITDA |
| 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 830.10M | 851.40M | 810.70M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 391.90M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 250.60M | 59.90M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 872.90M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 817.10M | 1.19B | Total Assets |
| 12.82B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B | 12.15B | Total Debt |
| 6.95B | 7.06B | 6.23B | 5.96B | 7.04B | 7.02B | Net Debt |
| 6.07B | 6.27B | 6.14B | 5.37B | 6.22B | 5.84B | Total Liabilities |
| 8.92B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B | 9.32B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.89B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 580.00M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M | 391.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.07B | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M | 625.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -472.00M | -677.50M | -669.30M | -220.20M | -793.60M | -218.50M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 115.10M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -237.20M | -167.50M | -272.00M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
111.75
Price Trends
113.56
Negative
112.08
Negative
113.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.17
Positive
48.39
Neutral
47.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 111.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 112.07, below the 50-day MA of 113.56, and below the 200-day MA of 113.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Post Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $9.06B | 14.66 | 16.31% | 2.26% | -6.88% | -4.93% | |
75 Outperform | $5.58B | 33.23 | 3.79% | ― | -11.02% | -68.34% | |
75 Outperform | $7.60B | 21.12 | 21.63% | 2.69% | -2.49% | -65.96% | |
74 Outperform | $6.12B | 8.59 | 23.47% | 2.42% | 3.82% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $8.37B | 30.74 | -190.65% | ― | 18.91% | 49.43% | |
67 Neutral | $6.23B | 20.16 | 9.15% | ― | 1.48% | 9.36% | |
64 Neutral | $8.77B | 14.68 | 4.78% | 173.90% | 3.25% | 2.18% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
POST
Post Holdings
111.75
6.86
6.54%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.61
-0.18
-4.75%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
35.25
-7.77
-18.06%
INGR
Ingredion
140.81
25.43
22.04%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
53.85
-31.38
-36.82%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
65.89
8.59
14.99%
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 0.80%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of challenges and achievements. While the company successfully managed significant challenges like Avian influenza and executed strong share repurchases, it faced volume declines in key segments and capital market uncertainties. The increased EBITDA guidance suggests confidence in overcoming these hurdles.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Foodservice Performance Despite Challenges
The Foodservice team managed to navigate the difficult egg markets due to Avian influenza, with Q2 Foodservice adjusted EBITDA only $20 million lower than Q1, better than the anticipated $30-$50 million drop.
Avian Influenza Impact Management
Avian influenza pricing became effective in April, and flock repopulation is on track, with expectations to balance egg sourcing and demand by Q4.
Successful Share Repurchases
The company repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating strong capital allocation strategy.
Increased EBITDA Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion.
Negative Updates
Decline in Cereal and Pet Volumes
Post Consumer Brands net sales decreased by 7%, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5%, due to category dynamics and price elasticities.
Impact of Avian Influenza on Refrigerated Retail
Refrigerated Retail adjusted EBITDA declined by 14% due to Easter timing and costs ahead of pricing in eggs.
Challenges in Weetabix
Weetabix net sales decreased by 5%, with a 7% volume decline due to lower promotions and elasticities related to pricing decisions.
Uncertainty in M&A and Capital Markets
Recent tariff actions and capital market volatility slowed M&A activities, focusing on smaller tactical transactions.
Company Guidance
During the Post Holdings Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance points were discussed. The company reported consolidated net sales of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $347 million, with a 2% sales decrease primarily due to lower volumes in retail businesses. The Foodservice segment's adjusted EBITDA was about $20 million lower than the previous quarter due to Avian influenza costs, although manufacturing and supply chain improvements partially mitigated this impact. Post Consumer Brands saw a 7% net sales decrease, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5%. Despite these challenges, adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by 2%, thanks to better cost management. The call also highlighted the expectation that the unfavorable cost impacts experienced in Q2 would be recovered in the latter half of fiscal 2025, and guidance for the fiscal year’s adjusted EBITDA was increased to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion. Additionally, the company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought approximately 6% of the company since the beginning of the fiscal year, and it remains well-positioned for further capital allocation opportunities.Post Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings Caps CEO Retirement Plan at $2.5M
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025
On April 9, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its 2024 Supplemental Executive Retirement Plan to cap the account balance of its President and CEO at $2.5 million, impacting future pay credits. This amendment reflects the company’s strategic decision to manage executive compensation and benefits, potentially influencing its financial planning and stakeholder relations.
Spark’s Take on POST Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, POST is a Outperform.
Post Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and cash flow. However, high leverage and recent avian influenza impacts pose risks. Technical indicators suggest a stable outlook, while valuation is fair. The absence of a dividend yield and potential supply chain disruptions from avian influenza are notable concerns.
To see Spark’s full report on POST stock, click here.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025
On March 27, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc.’s Corporate Governance and Compensation Committee approved performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) for key executives. These awards, part of the company’s long-term incentive plan, aim to align executive performance with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder value.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.