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Paccar
(NASDAQ:PCAR)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$152.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
PCAR scores well on financial quality (notably a very strong balance sheet) and supportive operating outlook from the latest earnings call, with a clearly positive price trend. The main constraint on the score is valuation (P/E ~29) alongside cyclical and policy-related uncertainties (EPA 2027, supply and tariff risks).
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
PACCAR’s reported zero debt position and sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility: it supports continued capital allocation (capex, R&D, dividends/buybacks), reduces refinancing and liquidity risks during downturns, and strengthens the company’s ability to fund strategic initiatives without leverage dependence.
Negative Factors
EPA 2027 regulatory uncertainty
Uncertainty around EPA 2027 compliance and nonconformance penalties creates a structural cost and timing risk: higher per-truck compliance costs or penalties can alter purchase timing, reduce demand for new compliant trucks, complicate product design tradeoffs, and pressure margins and unit economics over multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
PACCAR’s reported zero debt position and sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility: it supports continued capital allocation (capex, R&D, dividends/buybacks), reduces refinancing and liquidity risks during downturns, and strengthens the company’s ability to fund strategic initiatives without leverage dependence.
Read all positive factors
Paccar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business segments, providing insight into which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic focus may be needed.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business segments, providing insight into which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic focus may be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPaccar (PCAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$69.84B
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)3.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.9
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-10.49%
EPS Growth-18.64%
CountryUS
Employees25,900
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.76
Shares Outstanding526,364,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,371,737
30 Day Avg. Volume3,297,474
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)2.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.03
P/FCF Ratio19.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$141.78Price Target Upside7.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.73B
Paccar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PACCAR Inc is a global leader specializing in the design, production, and distribution of commercial trucks, covering light, medium, and heavy-duty classes. Its market reach extends across the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australi...
How the Company Makes Money
PACCAR primarily makes money through (1) selling commercial vehicles, (2) selling parts and related aftermarket offerings, and (3) earning interest and fee income through its financial services operations.
1) Truck sales (core industrial revenue)...
Paccar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operating momentum: record parts results, higher deliveries, expanding margins in key areas, and constructive macro indicators (freight rate increases and improving used truck markets). Management acknowledged manageable near-term headwinds—EPA rule uncertainty, supplier constraints, tariff considerations, and mix-related margin pressures—but framed these as contained risks with favorable positioning (local production, capital/R&D investments, and financial services strength) that should support a strong second half and 2027. Overall, positives outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Revenue of $7.5 billion and net income of $752 million in Q2; net income increased 24% sequentially from Q1.
Negative Updates
EPA 2027 Rule Uncertainty and Nonconformance Penalties
EPA proposed approach is still in comment period; nonconformance penalties (NCPs) currently expected at ~$6,000–$7,000 per truck while fully compliant 35 mg NOx engines are estimated to cost ~$8,000–$10,000 more—creating uncertainty in customer purchase timing and product mix for 2027.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Revenue of $7.5 billion and net income of $752 million in Q2; net income increased 24% sequentially from Q1.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PACCAR guided to a strong second half of 2026 and provided numerous metrics: Q2 revenue was $7.5 billion and net income $752 million (up 24% sequentially); Q2 truck deliveries rose to 38,700 (from 33,000) and Q3 deliveries are estimated at ~42,000; U.S./Canada retail was 105,000 in H1 with H2 expected ~145,000 for a full‑year ~250,000; Europe (>16t) is projected at ~310,000 and South America at 100,000–110,000 units; PACCAR Parts posted a record Q2 revenue of $1.75 billion and pre‑tax income of $417 million with gross margins of 29.8% and fleet‑services revenue up 8% (parts sales growth for the full year estimated 3%–5%); truck gross margins (other) rose from 13.1% to 14.4% in Q2, with Q3 forecast ~14.5% and further improvement into Q4; PACCAR Financial Services pre‑tax income was $124 million; capital expenditures are planned at $700–750 million and R&D $450–480 million; EPA guidance allows sale of current engines next year with nonconformance penalties estimated at ~$6,000–$7,000 per truck (below the expected incremental cost of fully compliant 35 mg engines), and market fundamentals cited include spot rates up ~20% and contract rates up ~6.5%, all underpinning an expected excellent second half 2026 and a healthy 2027.Paccar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.27B | 28.44B | 33.66B | 35.13B | 28.82B | 23.52B |
| Gross Profit | 4.05B | 4.62B | 6.71B | 7.63B | 5.23B | 4.28B |
| EBITDA | 3.56B | 4.20B | 6.35B | 6.65B | 4.64B | 3.37B |
| Net Income | 2.50B | 2.38B | 4.16B | 4.60B | 3.01B | 1.87B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 43.98B | 44.34B | 43.42B | 40.82B | 33.28B | 29.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.67B | 9.52B | 9.84B | 9.00B | 6.31B | 4.99B |
| Total Debt | 14.70B | 15.64B | 15.89B | 14.38B | 11.68B | 10.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.66B | 25.07B | 25.91B | 24.94B | 20.11B | 17.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.32B | 19.26B | 17.51B | 15.88B | 13.17B | 11.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.13B | 3.03B | 2.90B | 2.93B | 1.64B | 553.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.34B | 4.42B | 4.64B | 4.19B | 3.03B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.69B | -2.27B | -4.49B | -2.87B | -2.03B | -1.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.62B | -3.08B | -123.10M | 1.10B | 304.90M | -882.90M |
Paccar Technical Analysis
Positive
132.24
Price Trends
121.47
Positive
119.58
Positive
115.42
Positive
Market Momentum
3.58
Negative
59.66
Neutral
53.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCAR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 132.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.39, above the 50-day MA of 121.47, and above the 200-day MA of 115.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PCAR.
Paccar Risk Analysis
Paccar disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Paccar reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Paccar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $69.84B | 27.87 | 12.73% | 2.05% | -10.49% | -18.64% | |
72 Outperform | $8.79B | 16.22 | 12.32% | 1.39% | 1.93% | -12.16% | |
67 Neutral | $375.33B | 40.38 | 47.51% | 0.69% | 11.85% | -2.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $7.15B | 14.11 | 12.45% | 0.97% | 1.74% | 443.88% | |
61 Neutral | $159.98B | 33.50 | 18.25% | 1.03% | 3.98% | -14.68% | |
50 Neutral | $12.71B | 33.20 | 4.99% | 0.90% | -4.04% | -62.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PCAR
Paccar
132.06
36.28
37.88%
AGCO
Agco
103.92
-8.58
-7.63%
CAT
Caterpillar
830.03
399.67
92.87%
CNH
CNH Industrial
10.80
-1.70
-13.59%
DE
Deere
605.06
102.77
20.46%
OSK
Oshkosh
148.36
10.37
7.51%
Paccar Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Paccar shareholders affirm board, executive pay and auditors
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 27, 2026, PACCAR’s board compensation committee approved long-term performance cash awards for the 2023–2025 incentive cycle, materially increasing reported 2025 total pay for its named executives, including CEO R. P. Feight a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.