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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) AI Stock Analysis

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PANW

Palo Alto Networks

(NASDAQ:PANW)

Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:$338.00â–²(4.75% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:11/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow generation and an improved, conservatively levered balance sheet, supported by upbeat FY2027 guidance and strong demand indicators from the latest earnings call. Offsetting these positives are weak technical momentum (price below major moving averages with negative MACD) and a very high P/E with no dividend support, plus the notable 2026 profitability/margin step-down that raises near-term earnings-quality risk.

Positive Factors
Recurring subscription modelThe subscription-led model creates recurring revenue streams tied to security platforms and ongoing customer support. Multi-year agreements, renewals, and expansion across modules can improve revenue visibility and provide a durable base for continued investment in product development and customer retention.
Negative Factors
Sharp profitability resetThe steep decline in net margin weakens confidence in near-term earnings quality even though revenue remains materially higher over the multi-year period. Lower profitability can constrain internal reinvestment efficiency and makes future earnings more sensitive to operating costs, mix, and execution.

Palo Alto Networks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Gross Profit by SegmentReveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there may be opportunities or challenges.

$0.00$500.00M$1.00B$1.50B$2.00BMar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Subscription gross profit is the clear engine—steady, accelerating and increasingly amplified by platform wins and recent acquisitions, which underpins the company’s record ARR, RPO and cash‑flow. Product gross profit has recovered (hardware strength and more software‑driven product revenue) but is lumpier and exposed to supply‑chain/component cost pressure and hardware pricing sensitivity. Management’s upgraded FY26 guidance confirms durable recurring momentum, but watch acquisition-related charges, elevated SBC and hardware margin risk that could keep reported profitability more volatile.

Data provided by:The Fly

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%125%PANW+59.02%SPY+13.89%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$273.74B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
6.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
727.1
Beta (1Y)
1.54
Revenue Growth
24.49%
EPS Growth
-68.55%
Country
US
Employees
21,921
Sector
Technology
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Software - Infrastructure

Palo Alto Networks Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls. It also offers Panorama, a sophisticated security management platform desi...

How the Company Makes Money

Palo Alto Networks primarily generates revenue through subscriptions and support, complemented by product (hardware) sales and professional services. Subscriptions and support are the company’s core revenue engine and include (1) recurring software a...

Palo Alto Networks Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 01, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:-10.89%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly optimistic, characterized by record financial performance, accelerating platformization, rapid growth in Prisma AIRS, XSIAM, SASE, and observability, successful acquisition integration, and positive fiscal 2027 guidance. The main challenges were lower gross margins, expected cloud hosting-cost growth, persistent hardware commodity costs, the fading impact of a large Chronosphere migration, and the time required for customers to modernize legacy environments. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Record Q4 Execution Across All Financial Metrics
Palo Alto Networks exceeded its guidance across every financial metric in Q4, with bookings momentum accelerating for the second consecutive quarter.

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Decline
Q4 total gross margin was 74.8%, down 100 basis points year over year. Fiscal 2026 gross margin was 75.8%, down 60 basis points year over year.

Company Guidance

For fiscal first quarter 27, Palo Alto Networks expects NGS ARR of $9.54 billion to $9.56 billion or 63% growth, RPO of $20.8 billion to $20.9 billion or 34% to 35% growth, revenue of $3.3 billion to $3.31 billion or 33% to 34% growth, fully diluted share count of 37 to 44 million shares, and diluted non GAAP EPS in the range of $0.96 to $0.98 per share; for fiscal year 2027, it expects NGS ARR of $11.075 billion to $11.175 billion or 22% to 23% growth, RPO of $25.2 billion to $25.4 billion or 19% to 20% growth, revenue of $14.1 billion to $14.2 billion or 23% to 24% growth, operating margin of 29.5%, diluted non GAAP EPS in the range of $4.16 to $4.19 per Fully diluted share count of 844 to 847 million shares, and adjusted free cash flow margin of 38%; it expects 60% to 61% of the net new NGS ARR to fall in the second half of FY 27, network and AI security revenue growth of low double digits year over year, Cortex revenue up approximately 30% year over year, and IDERA revenue of approximately $1.5 billion, representing pro form a growth of high teens to 20%. year over year, and it has a target of $20 billion in NGS ARR by fiscal year 2030 and a 40% free cash flow margin target in fiscal 2028.

Palo Alto Networks Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and growing free cash flow (FCF up to ~$4.6B in 2026) and a much improved, conservatively levered balance sheet support durability. The main offset is the sharp 2026 profitability reset (net margin down to ~2.7% from ~12.3% in 2025) alongside decelerating growth, which reduces near-term earnings quality confidence.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

84Very Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJul 2026Jul 2025Jul 2024Jul 2023Jul 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.48B11.48B9.22B8.03B6.89B5.50B
Gross Profit8.08B8.08B6.77B5.97B4.98B3.78B
EBITDA1.54B1.39B1.94B1.28B869.00M95.60M
Net Income307.00M307.00M1.13B2.58B439.70M-267.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets48.46B48.46B23.58B19.99B14.50B12.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.07B3.07B2.90B2.58B2.39B3.63B
Total Debt2.50B2.50B338.20M1.34B2.27B3.95B
Total Liabilities20.97B20.97B15.75B14.82B12.75B12.04B
Stockholders Equity27.49B27.49B7.82B5.17B1.75B210.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.11B4.11B3.47B3.10B2.63B1.79B
Operating Cash Flow4.55B4.55B3.72B3.26B2.78B1.98B
Investing Cash Flow-3.10B-3.10B-2.20B-1.51B-2.03B-933.40M
Financing Cash Flow-1.20B-1.20B-778.90M-1.34B-1.73B-806.60M

Palo Alto Networks Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price322.66

Price Trends

50DMA367.81Negative
100DMA357.32Negative
200DMA275.81Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-13.33Positive
RSI41.96Neutral
STOCH22.26Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PANW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 322.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 354.28, below the 50-day MA of 367.81, and above the 200-day MA of 275.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PANW.

Palo Alto Networks Risk Analysis

Palo Alto Networks disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Palo Alto Networks reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.We may not have the ability to raise the funds necessary to settle conversions of the 2030 Notes, repurchase the 2030 Notes upon a fundamental change, or repay the 2030 Notes in cash at their maturity, and our other debt may contain limitations on our ability to pay cash upon conversion or repurchase of the 2030 Notes.Q2, 2026
2.The Capped Calls may affect the value of the 2030 Notes and our common stock.Q2, 2026
3.The success of our strategy depends on maintaining a broad ecosystem of integrations with third-party technologies, which requires significant ongoing investment.Q2, 2026

Palo Alto Networks Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

PANW against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ZSZS78Outperform$31.78B-496.91-2.76%―25.42%-47.39%
CRWDCRWD77Outperform$231.16B6507.391.29%―24.30%―
CHKPCHKP74Outperform$14.76B17.4731.62%―2.70%-10.33%
FTNTFTNT73Outperform$90.79B41.32151.52%―20.23%26.26%
PANWPANW65Neutral$267.21B727.111.68%―24.49%-68.55%
SS65Neutral$8.15B-23.54-23.16%―21.09%23.48%
Sector *61Neutral$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%PANWCHKPFTNTZSCRWDSDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
PANW and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
PANWPalo Alto Networks322.66117.4157.20%
CHKPCheck Point Software147.49-50.03-25.33%
FTNTFortinet129.5447.2357.38%
ZSZscaler193.22-106.23-35.48%
CRWDCrowdstrike Holdings229.8795.4871.05%
SSentinelone, Inc.22.295.5032.76%

Palo Alto Networks Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Palo Alto Networks Updates Executive Severance and Governance Policies

Neutral
Aug 21, 2026

On August 20, 2026, Palo Alto Networks’ board approved an Executive Change in Control and Severance Policy that formalizes severance, health benefit continuation, and equity-vesting protections for senior leaders, including CEO Nikesh Arora and other...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026