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Pampa Energia SA
(NYSE:PAM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$95.00
▲(10.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score reflects strong operating performance and positive ramp-up outlook from the latest earnings call, but it is held back by weak cash conversion and negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, while technicals are slightly bearish with price below key moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
RDA RIGI Approval
Government approval under the RIGI incentive regime formalizes a multibillion‑dollar, export‑oriented development for Rincón de Aranda. It secures long‑term export economics, improves project bankability and aligns future cash flows to export markets, materially strengthening Pampa’s growth runway and financing optionality.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Persistent negative free cash flow and poor cash conversion signal that accounting profits are not yet translating into distributable cash. Heavy reinvestment, timing effects and working capital swings increase reliance on external financing, raising execution and liquidity risk while the ramp‑up absorbs cash.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
RDA RIGI Approval
Government approval under the RIGI incentive regime formalizes a multibillion‑dollar, export‑oriented development for Rincón de Aranda. It secures long‑term export economics, improves project bankability and aligns future cash flows to export markets, materially strengthening Pampa’s growth runway and financing optionality.
Read all positive factors
Pampa Energia SA (PAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)159.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth14.53%
EPS Growth-12.33%
CountryUS
Employees11,598
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.50
Shares Outstanding54,540,813
10 Day Avg. Volume145,933
30 Day Avg. Volume159,818
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$130.75Price Target Upside51.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.54B
Pampa Energia SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pampa Energía SA engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. It operates through the following segments: Electricity Generation, Distribution of Energy, Oil and Gas, Petrochemicals, and Holding and Others. The Electri...
How the Company Makes Money
Pampa Energia primarily makes money through a mix of (1) selling electricity generated by its power plants and (2) earning regulated/contracted fees from energy infrastructure assets, with additional contributions from oil and gas-related activiti...
Pampa Energia SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational momentum (record production, rapid Rincon de Aranda ramp-up, significant YoY EBITDA growth, improved drilling/completion efficiency, and strategic capacity wins) while also highlighting near-term cash and working capital pressures (negative free cash flow, hedge collateral, prepayments for pipeline capacity), some operational outages and mark-to-market volatility from hedges. Management communicated credible plans to sustain ramp-up, access financing (recent bond issuance) and gradually deleverage as EBITDA grows, while noting several near-term cash commitments and hedge effects.Positive Updates
Record Production and Rincon de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total production exceeded 100,000 boe/d (new quarterly all-time high). Rincon de Aranda averaged 18,200 bbl/d in Q1 (up 7% QoQ) and is producing approximately 25,000 bbl/d as of the call. Rincon de Aranda contributed ~17% of quarter EBITDA and 54% of Oil & Gas segment EBITDA (up from 15% a year ago). Exit rate exceeded 21,000 bbl/d; target 28,000 bbl/d by mid-2026 and a 45,000 bbl/d plateau once central processing and pipeline are online.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow and Cash Drawdown
Free cash flow was negative $404 million in Q1, driven by hedge collateral requirements, intensive CapEx at Rincon de Aranda, and payments related to prior-year CapEx. Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $677 million, down $414 million vs Q4.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Rincon de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total production exceeded 100,000 boe/d (new quarterly all-time high). Rincon de Aranda averaged 18,200 bbl/d in Q1 (up 7% QoQ) and is producing approximately 25,000 bbl/d as of the call. Rincon de Aranda contributed ~17% of quarter EBITDA and 54% of Oil & Gas segment EBITDA (up from 15% a year ago). Exit rate exceeded 21,000 bbl/d; target 28,000 bbl/d by mid-2026 and a 45,000 bbl/d plateau once central processing and pipeline are online.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 momentum should continue, with upstream and power synergies driving growth: production already topped 100,000 boe/d (Q1), Rincon de Aranda is ~25,000 bpd today (avg Q1 18,200 bpd, exit >21,000 bpd) with a target of 28,000 bpd by mid‑2026 and a 45,000 bpd plateau (full‑field development ~$4.5bn) after CPF and pipeline, and plans to tie in ~20 more wells this year; they expect gas production ~14 mcm/d (Q1), exports 1.5 mcm/d, ~40% of gas to self‑supply power, and secured 3.2 mcm/d (27% of Perito Moreno expansion) with a ~$330m prepayment (35‑year contract) and operations targeted winter 2027; financials: Q1 adjusted EBITDA $325m (+48% YoY, +41% QoQ) with Oil & Gas EBITDA $104m (2.5x YoY) and Power EBITDA $144m (+11% YoY, +30% QoQ), CapEx $242m (+36% YoY, $163m to Rincon de Aranda), lifting costs $6.1/boe (down 11% YoY), gas lifting $0.90/mmbtu, realized oil $58/bbl (hedged; without hedge >$69/bbl), free cash flow negative $404m in Q1, cash $677m, gross debt ~$1.9bn, net debt $1.2bn (net leverage 1.5x LTM EBITDA); management expects an incremental ~ $100m EBITDA for power and ~€50–60m for E&P from additional pipeline‑enabled dispatch, plans to reduce hedge ratios from ~100% during ramp‑up toward ~50%, and to keep net leverage around 1.5x this year while deleveraging as Rincon ramps.Pampa Energia SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 2.00B | 1.88B | 1.73B | 1.83B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 682.00M | 629.00M | 597.00M | 625.00M | 690.00M | 557.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.19B | 1.02B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 773.00M |
| Net Income | 438.00M | 377.00M | 619.00M | 302.00M | 456.00M | 273.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.02B | 6.61B | 6.34B | 4.72B | 4.74B | 3.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 677.00M | 1.09B | 1.67B | 831.00M | 692.00M | 573.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 1.93B | 2.09B | 1.47B | 1.63B | 1.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.23B | 3.00B | 3.05B | 2.31B | 2.46B | 2.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.78B | 3.60B | 3.29B | 2.40B | 2.28B | 1.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -582.09M | -283.16M | -12.00M | -183.00M | 172.00M | 433.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 505.18M | 684.62M | 435.00M | 575.00M | 619.00M | 638.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -587.10M | -410.54M | -344.00M | -446.00M | -575.00M | -499.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.44M | -157.84M | 476.00M | -57.00M | -46.00M | -197.47M |
Pampa Energia SA Technical Analysis
Positive
86.26
Price Trends
83.95
Positive
83.68
Positive
83.42
Positive
Market Momentum
1.18
Negative
60.00
Neutral
66.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.74, above the 50-day MA of 83.95, and above the 200-day MA of 83.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAM.
Pampa Energia SA Risk Analysis
Pampa Energia SA disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pampa Energia SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pampa Energia SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.44B | 8.25 | 17.76% | ― | 13.93% | 231.87% | |
67 Neutral | $6.14B | 10.88 | 10.70% | 4.41% | 9.54% | 294.77% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $5.10B | 11.28 | 12.46% | ― | 14.53% | -12.33% | |
57 Neutral | $2.27B | 20.41 | 8.54% | ― | 30.87% | 121.64% | |
56 Neutral | $3.51B | 44.62 | 5.44% | 5.55% | 32.31% | -86.36% | |
52 Neutral | $2.23B | 17.46 | 8.09% | ― | -8.57% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
PAM
Pampa Energia SA
86.72
12.09
16.20%
HE
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12.70
1.78
16.30%
KEN
Kenon
66.23
23.30
54.28%
ENIC
Enel Chile SA
4.51
1.43
46.43%
CEPU
Central Puerto SA
14.95
2.94
24.48%
RNW
ReNew Energy Global
6.29
-1.30
-17.13%
Pampa Energia SA Corporate Events
Pampa Energía’s US$4.5bn Vaca Muerta RDA Project Gains RIGI Approval for Long-Term Exports
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Pampa Energía reported that Argentina’s Ministry of Economy approved the adhesion of its Rincón de Aranda (RDA) Project in Vaca Muerta to the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), granting it the status o...
Pampa Energía Greenlights US$2.7 Billion Fertilizer Complex to Boost Regional Urea Supply
Jul 18, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Pampa Energía’s board approved the final investment decision for a US$2.7 billion fertilizer complex, to be developed via its wholly owned unit Fértil Pampa in Buenos Aires Province. The plant will produce granula...
Pampa Energía Secures S&P Upgrade to ‘B’ with Stable Outlook
Jun 12, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Pampa Energía reported that Standard Poor’s upgraded the company’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from B- to B, assigning a stable outlook. The move signals an improvement in the companyR...
Pampa Energía Secures Fitch Upgrade to B+ With Stable Outlook
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. reported that Fitch Ratings upgraded the company’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings from B to B+, while affirming its senior unsecured bonds at B+ with a recovery rating of RR4. The...
Pampa Energía’s Oil and Gas Segment Swings to Profit on Rincón de Aranda Ramp-Up
May 13, 2026
For the three-month period ended March 31, 2026, Pampa Energía’s oil and gas segment delivered a sharp turnaround, with revenue up 69% year on year to U.S.$247 million and segment profit swinging from a U.S.$49 million loss to a U.S.$10...
Pampa Energía Files Q1 2026 Unaudited Results with SEC
May 8, 2026
Pampa Energía S.A. reported unaudited consolidated condensed interim financial statements for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026, showing revenue of ARS 807.8 billion and cost of sales of ARS 548.3 billion, resulting in gross profit ...
Pampa Energía Boosts Q1 2026 Output as Rincón de Aranda Ramps Up Despite Negative Free Cash Flow
May 7, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Pampa Energía filed its May Form 6-K and released materials for its first-quarter 2026 results call, highlighting a sharp operational upswing driven by oil and gas and power generation. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA in U.S. dol...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results and Accelerates Multibillion-Dollar Expansion in Argentina
May 6, 2026
Pampa Energía reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with sales rising 38% year-on-year to US$573 million and adjusted EBITDA up 48% to US$325 million, as higher shale oil output at Rincón de Aranda, stronger spot margins in...
Pampa Energía Posts Strong Q1 2026 Profit on Higher Revenue Despite Derivatives Hit
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Pampa Energía S.A. filed a Form 6-K in the United States disclosing its unaudited consolidated condensed interim financial statements in U.S. dollars for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The filing shows first-quarter revenue...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.