TXNM Energy AI Stock Analysis
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TXNM Energy (TXNM) AI Stock Analysis
TXNM Energy
(NYSE:TXNM)
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (persistently negative free cash flow) and a sharp TTM revenue decline, despite improved margins and better-looking current leverage. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above major moving averages and steady momentum. Valuation looks somewhat rich (P/E ~27) with only a moderate dividend yield, while recent refinancing actions modestly improve the risk profile but come with dilution.
TXNM Energy (TXNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $6.40B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.91%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.30M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 27.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.13
- Revenue Growth
- 9.99%
- EPS Growth
- 24.44%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,755
- Sector
- Utilities
- Sector Strength
- 66
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
TXNM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, supplies electricity and related services across the United States. Its operations are organized into two main divisions: Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Compa...
How the Company Makes Money
TXNM Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility revenues earned by its electric utility subsidiaries (PNM and TNMP). The core revenue stream is retail electricity service: customers pay monthly bills that include charges for electricity s...
TXNM Energy Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth metrics, successful regulatory approvals, and supportive legislative developments. However, challenges such as transmission pressures, insurance costs, and ongoing regulatory lag concerns were noted.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
During the TXNM Energy Q1 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 with an earnings per share (EPS) range of $2.74 to $2.84, alongside a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%. The company reported ongoing earnings of $0.19 per share for the first quarter, highlighting progress in regulatory approvals and capital investments. TXNM Energy's system resiliency plan, approved for $546 million, and the Permian Basin Reliability Study, involving a $750 million investment by 2030, were key highlights. The company noted a 22% increase in TNMP's system peak and a 9.7% growth in demand-based load, largely driven by commercial growth in North and West Texas. The legislative environment was favorable, with new bills passed to support infrastructure development and wildfire prevention. TXNM Energy plans to maintain its five-year capital plan, increasing from $600 million in 2025 to over $1 billion by 2028, to support a 17% rate base growth.
TXNM Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability has improved (TTM net margin ~14%), and leverage appears low in the latest period (debt-to-equity ~0.11). Offsetting these positives, TTM revenue fell sharply (~29%) and free cash flow is persistently negative (TTM about -$31M) with weak cash conversion versus earnings (operating cash flow to net income ~0.30), limiting financial flexibility.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
55NeutralCash Flow
39Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.32B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.94B | 2.25B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 955.90M | 824.79M | 810.16M | 627.10M | 714.73M | 625.65M |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 998.39M | 929.21M | 627.71M | 682.44M | 663.84M |
| Net Income | 228.98M | 151.36M | 242.68M | 88.35M | 170.06M | 196.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.82B | 12.06B | 11.55B | 10.59B | 9.63B | 9.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.73M | 18.26M | 4.50M | 2.21M | 4.08M | 1.10M |
| Total Debt | 6.04B | 5.71B | 5.83B | 4.99B | 4.39B | 3.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.13B | 8.60B | 8.95B | 8.18B | 7.37B | 6.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.64B | 3.42B | 2.55B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -602.59M | -611.43M | -738.88M | -524.64M | -345.27M | -387.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 610.23M | 584.49M | 508.16M | 551.17M | 567.28M | 547.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -1.22B | -1.17B | -1.09B | -950.35M | -952.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 619.16M | 642.52M | 684.35M | 537.10M | 386.04M | 357.56M |
TXNM Energy Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXNM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.10 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.33, above the 50-day MA of 58.06, and above the 200-day MA of 57.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TXNM.
TXNM Energy Risk Analysis
TXNM Energy disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TXNM Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskTXNM Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
PNW71Outperform
IDA66Neutral
LNT66Neutral
NWE60Neutral
POR56Neutral- TXNM56Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNW | 71Outperform | $12.84B | 19.44 | 9.24% | 3.45% | 7.52% | 9.75% |
| IDA | 66Neutral | $8.73B | 22.26 | 9.94% | 2.39% | 3.69% | 13.21% |
| LNT | 66Neutral | $19.00B | 20.29 | 12.41% | 2.92% | 5.36% | 13.51% |
| Sector * | 66Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
| NWE | 60Neutral | $5.22B | 31.80 | 5.66% | 3.14% | 10.09% | -24.61% |
| POR | 56Neutral | $5.47B | 19.46 | 6.54% | 4.69% | 2.51% | -15.35% |
| TXNM | 56Neutral | $6.40B | 27.23 | 6.51% | 2.91% | 9.99% | 24.44% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNM | Txnm Energy, Inc. | 58.10 | 2.01 | 3.59% | |
| LNT | Alliant Energy Corporation | 73.24 | 7.16 | 10.84% | |
| IDA | IdaCorp | 148.27 | 20.84 | 16.35% | |
| NWE | Northwestern | 84.92 | 20.16 | 31.13% | |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital | 105.96 | 20.16 | 23.50% | |
| POR | Portland General Electric | 45.92 | -2.43 | -5.02% |
TXNM Energy Corporate Events
TXNM Energy Advances Toward Merger Regulatory Approval
NeutralOn May 18, 2025, TXNM Energy, Inc. entered into a merger agreement under which Troy Merger Sub Inc. will merge with and into TXNM, leaving TXNM as a wholly owned subsidiary of Troy ParentCo, LLC. On August 25, 2025, TXNM and Public Service Company of...
TXNM Energy Announces Convertible Notes Conversion Window
NeutralTXNM Energy, Inc. has informed holders of its 5.75% Junior Subordinated Convertible Notes due 2054 that the notes will be convertible at the holders’ option between October 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, after the company’s share price met the requi...
TXNM Energy Prices Equity Offering to Refinance Debt
PositiveOn August 31, 2026, TXNM Energy launched and priced an underwritten public offering of its common stock, agreeing to sell 7,079,646 shares at $55.935 per share through Wells Fargo Securities. The offering, registered under an existing shelf, closed o...
TXNM Energy Announces New Note and Bond Financings
PositiveOn August 19, 2026, PNM entered into a private Note Purchase Agreement with institutional investors for $200 million of senior unsecured notes across three series maturing between 2029 and 2038, with fixed coupons ranging from 5.44% to 6.12%. The pro...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026