Txnm Energy, Inc. (TXNM)
NYSE:TXNM
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TXNM Energy
(NYSE:TXNM)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
â–¼(-1.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (persistently negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion) and an uneven recent earnings/revenue profile, while technicals also point to strong near-term selling pressure. These risks are partially offset by a supportive dividend, generally solid utility operating margins, and modestly positive regulatory/governance-related corporate developments.
Positive Factors
Regulated revenue model
A regulated rate-base business provides predictable, long-duration cash flows because revenues are designed to recover prudently incurred costs and include an authorized return. That structural revenue mechanism supports capital investment recovery and stable earnings visibility versus competitive commodity players.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Consistent negative free cash flow indicates the business requires external financing to fund ongoing capital expenditures and working capital. Over the medium term this constrains financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest-rate risk, and can pressure the ability to internally fund clean-energy projects and resilience spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated revenue model
A regulated rate-base business provides predictable, long-duration cash flows because revenues are designed to recover prudently incurred costs and include an authorized return. That structural revenue mechanism supports capital investment recovery and stable earnings visibility versus competitive commodity players.
Read all positive factors
TXNM Energy (TXNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.32B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.2
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth8.46%
EPS Growth-38.43%
CountryUS
Employees1,695
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding110,707,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,736,337
30 Day Avg. Volume1,386,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)2.53
P/FCF Ratio-8.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.00Price Target Upside3.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.37B
TXNM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, supplies electricity and related services across the United States. Its operations are organized into two main divisions: Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Co...
How the Company Makes Money
TXNM Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. The core revenue stream is retail electricity sales to residential, commercial, and industrial customers within its service areas, where customer bills reflect approved rates ...
TXNM Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth metrics, successful regulatory approvals, and supportive legislative developments. However, challenges such as transmission pressures, insurance costs, and ongoing regulatory lag concerns were noted.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Negative Updates
Transmission and Demand Charge Pressures
Lower transmission margins and higher demand charges from energy storage agreements impacted earnings, though mitigated by deferrals.
Read all updates
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the TXNM Energy Q1 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 with an earnings per share (EPS) range of $2.74 to $2.84, alongside a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%. The company reported ongoing earnings of $0.19 per share for the first quarter, highlighting progress in regulatory approvals and capital investments. TXNM Energy's system resiliency plan, approved for $546 million, and the Permian Basin Reliability Study, involving a $750 million investment by 2030, were key highlights. The company noted a 22% increase in TNMP's system peak and a 9.7% growth in demand-based load, largely driven by commercial growth in North and West Texas. The legislative environment was favorable, with new bills passed to support infrastructure development and wildfire prevention. TXNM Energy plans to maintain its five-year capital plan, increasing from $600 million in 2025 to over $1 billion by 2028, to support a 17% rate base growth.TXNM Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.94B | 2.25B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 841.66M | 824.79M | 810.16M | 627.10M | 714.73M | 625.65M |
| EBITDA | 949.43M | 940.66M | 929.21M | 627.71M | 682.44M | 663.84M |
| Net Income | 146.70M | 151.36M | 242.68M | 88.35M | 170.06M | 196.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.14B | 4.35B | 11.55B | 10.59B | 9.63B | 9.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.62M | 1.62M | 4.50M | 2.21M | 4.08M | 1.10M |
| Total Debt | 614.72M | 2.60M | 5.83B | 4.99B | 4.39B | 3.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.61B | 953.99M | 8.95B | 8.18B | 7.37B | 6.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.46B | 3.40B | 2.55B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -569.59M | -611.43M | -738.88M | -524.64M | -345.27M | -387.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.42M | 584.49M | 508.16M | 551.17M | 567.28M | 547.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.22B | -1.17B | -1.09B | -950.35M | -952.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 587.01M | 642.52M | 684.35M | 537.10M | 386.04M | 357.56M |
TXNM Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
58.91
Price Trends
58.84
Negative
58.62
Negative
57.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Positive
19.85
Positive
5.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXNM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 58.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.77, above the 50-day MA of 58.84, and above the 200-day MA of 57.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.85 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TXNM.
TXNM Energy Risk Analysis
TXNM Energy disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TXNM Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TXNM Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $6.24B | 13.84 | 0.04% | 5.63% | 8.85% | 191.04% | |
66 Neutral | $9.86B | 21.58 | 9.47% | 3.82% | 4.11% | -6.40% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $12.54B | 19.16 | 9.34% | 4.15% | 4.84% | 5.77% | |
60 Neutral | $7.92B | 23.70 | 9.42% | 2.72% | -2.03% | 7.94% | |
60 Neutral | $5.87B | 22.21 | 6.25% | 4.38% | 4.28% | -21.65% | |
52 Neutral | $6.32B | 36.17 | 4.35% | 2.80% | 8.46% | -38.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TXNM
TXNM Energy
57.05
2.34
4.28%
IDA
IdaCorp
142.94
32.61
29.55%
OGE
OGE Energy
47.93
5.65
13.36%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
103.27
17.82
20.85%
POR
Portland GE
50.46
12.17
31.77%
ENIC
Enel Chile SA
4.59
1.17
34.37%
TXNM Energy Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TXNM Energy Shareholders Back Board, Auditors and Pay
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 10, 2026, TXNM Energy held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors voted on board elections, auditor ratification, and executive compensation matters. Shareholders elected ten director nominees to one-year terms expiring at the...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy Pursues Texas Rate Settlement and Grid Resilience
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 29, 2026, TNMP, TXNM Energy’s Texas utility, filed a comprehensive settlement in its base rate review before the Public Utility Commission of Texas, seeking recovery of a $2.8 billion rate base as of June 30, 2025, preservation of a 9...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
TXNM Energy Announces Q2 2026 Convertible Notes Option
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
TXNM Energy has informed holders of its 5.75% Junior Subordinated Convertible Notes due 2054 that the notes will be convertible at the holders’ option between April 1 and June 30, 2026, at a rate equivalent to a conversion price of about $44...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.