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Orchid Island Capital
(NYSE:ORC)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-25.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
ORC’s score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strong headline valuation profile (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and an earnings-call outlook that supports dividend coverage and points to some post-quarter book value recovery, despite notable recent book value and earnings volatility.
Positive Factors
Hedging and risk management
Near-complete hedge coverage and a tight duration gap show an established framework for managing interest-rate exposure. Effective hedging can reduce earnings and book-value sensitivity to rate moves, helping preserve portfolio resilience even when mortgage markets become volatile.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Leverage near eight times equity makes the company highly sensitive to funding costs, collateral values, and changes in mortgage-market spreads. It amplifies returns when conditions are favorable but can accelerate book-value erosion and liquidity pressure during adverse market moves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Hedging and risk management
Near-complete hedge coverage and a tight duration gap show an established framework for managing interest-rate exposure. Effective hedging can reduce earnings and book-value sensitivity to rate moves, helping preserve portfolio resilience even when mortgage markets become volatile.
Read all positive factors
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$974.61M
Dividend Yield26.14%
Average Volume (3M)6.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)101.0
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth83.33%
EPS Growth-87.70%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding192,992,160
10 Day Avg. Volume5,966,956
30 Day Avg. Volume6,691,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)5.15
P/FCF Ratio7.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit33.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$285.29M
Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company’s RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its port...
How the Company Makes Money
Orchid Island Capital primarily makes money from the net interest income it earns on its investment portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), particularly agency RMBS. The core model is to (1) purchase RMBS that pay interest and ...
Orchid Island Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflected a difficult third quarter, with a substantial rates-market sell-off producing a net loss, a 16.6% decline in book value per share from $7.22 to $6.02, and a negative 12.5% total return. However, management reported a roughly 4.5% book value recovery through October 22, maintained the $0.30 dividend with stated coverage, highlighted attractive prospective mortgage returns, and expressed confidence in its hedging, liquidity management, and ability to reinvest or repurchase shares. The positive recovery and outlook were meaningful but balanced against substantial recent losses, elevated leverage, market volatility, and housing-market challenges.Positive Updates
Dividend Maintained and Covered by Earnings
The company declared a $0.30 per-share dividend during the quarter, consistent with Q2. Management said the portfolio's earnings level is in line with the dividend, taxable earnings versus the dividend should be very close at year-end, and it is comfortable with the current pay rate under current market conditions and portfolio composition.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Book Value Decline
The company reported a net loss of $0.90 per share in Q3, compared with net income of $0.44 per share in Q2. Book value declined to $6.02 per share from $7.22, and total return was negative 12.5% versus positive 6.2% in Q2.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Dividend Maintained and Covered by Earnings
The company declared a $0.30 per-share dividend during the quarter, consistent with Q2. Management said the portfolio's earnings level is in line with the dividend, taxable earnings versus the dividend should be very close at year-end, and it is comfortable with the current pay rate under current market conditions and portfolio composition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and next year, the company expects to reduce hedges as rates rally, add mortgage assets as market conditions and leverage normalize, and look for opportunities to improve portfolio carry as relative value opportunities emerge; taxable income estimates remain in line with the dividends paid year-to-date, the earnings rate is “very much in line with the dividend,” and “if we maintain the current level in terms of market conditions and portfolio composition, we are very comfortable with the current pay rate” of $0.30. Management intends to retain the portfolio at this size, reinvest paydowns and “may actually add some,” is comfortable with leverage at 8.12x and indicated an 8x, 8.5x kind of range, and expects returns on equity in the high teens with somewhat higher prospective returns available through new investments or selective portfolio rotation; share repurchases remain attractive if the stock continues to trade meaningfully below 80% of book.Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 531.77M | 179.51M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -241.00M | -49.89M |
| Gross Profit | 329.39M | 175.52M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -243.88M | -49.89M |
| EBITDA | 624.93M | 464.76M | 273.94M | 162.69M | 0.00 | -57.67M |
| Net Income | 244.72M | 159.03M | 37.66M | -39.23M | -258.45M | -64.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.10B | 11.68B | 5.72B | 4.26B | 3.87B | 7.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 813.63M | 724.56M | 309.33M | 241.03M | 205.65M | 385.14M |
| Total Debt | 11.58B | 10.24B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 11.66B | 10.30B | 5.05B | 3.80B | 3.43B | 6.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.37B | 668.50M | 469.94M | 438.76M | 768.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 206.45M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.45M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.57B | -5.38B | -1.42B | -441.06M | 2.44B | -3.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.72B | 5.65B | 1.48B | 396.13M | -2.94B | 3.07B |
Orchid Island Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
6.72
Price Trends
5.80
Negative
6.08
Negative
6.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Negative
39.51
Neutral
35.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.10, above the 50-day MA of 5.80, and above the 200-day MA of 6.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORC.
Orchid Island Capital Risk Analysis
Orchid Island Capital disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orchid Island Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | $10.48B | 126.29 | 0.48% | 16.29% | 151.78% | -96.75% | |
58 Neutral | $974.61M | 101.00 | -0.47% | 26.14% | 83.33% | -87.70% | |
58 Neutral | $2.71B | 49.64 | -1.74% | 18.68% | 376.19% | -85.68% | |
55 Neutral | $13.83B | 12.74 | 6.97% | 15.80% | -3.52% | -33.98% | |
55 Neutral | $596.33M | 3.46 | 13.99% | 25.99% | 31.49% | 274.62% | |
43 Neutral | $1.91B | -429.33 | -2.19% | 22.36% | -139.97% | -148.81% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
5.05
-1.29
-20.36%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
8.84
-0.15
-1.67%
NLY
Annaly Capital
18.35
-0.14
-0.75%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
12.88
-0.91
-6.61%
DX
Dynex Capital
10.92
-0.69
-5.90%
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
5.54
-0.69
-11.03%
Orchid Island Capital Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Declares Monthly Dividend Amid Q3 Losses
Negative
Oct 14, 2026
On October 14, 2026, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for October 2026, payable November 27 to shareholders of record on October 30, with the same date as the ex-dividend date. The company reiterated its i...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares September Monthly Dividend
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Orchid Island Capital announced that its board had declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for September 2026, payable on October 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2026, with the same date as...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares August 2026 Monthly Dividend
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. announced that its board had declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for August 2026, payable on September 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 31, 2026, which is also the ex-d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.