Want to see ORC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Orchid Island Capital
(NYSE:ORC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
â–²(4.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
ORC scores around the middle primarily because a strong recent earnings/cash-flow rebound is tempered by very high leverage and sensitivity to rates and RMBS valuations. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and very high yield), while technicals are only mildly constructive. The earnings call and recent updates reinforce improved hedging and buyback support, but the dividend cut and post-quarter book value volatility keep the overall risk profile elevated.
Positive Factors
Earnings Recovery
The sharp earnings rebound demonstrates improved portfolio economics and stronger recent operating performance. Although mREIT results remain cyclical, higher current profitability provides a stronger base for sustaining distributions and managing market volatility.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
High leverage magnifies both gains and losses from changes in RMBS values, repo rates and collateral requirements. It leaves the company more exposed to funding disruptions and asset-price declines, limiting balance-sheet flexibility during stressed markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Earnings Recovery
The sharp earnings rebound demonstrates improved portfolio economics and stronger recent operating performance. Although mREIT results remain cyclical, higher current profitability provides a stronger base for sustaining distributions and managing market volatility.
Read all positive factors
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.31B
Dividend Yield20.46%
Average Volume (3M)4.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth89.39%
EPS Growth661.99%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding199,603,440
10 Day Avg. Volume4,512,625
30 Day Avg. Volume4,562,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)5.15
P/FCF Ratio7.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$279.68M
Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company’s RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its port...
How the Company Makes Money
ORC’s core business model is the classic agency mREIT spread-and-leverage model. It buys agency RMBS that pay interest (coupon and amortization-related cash flows) and funds a substantial portion of those holdings with short-term borrowings—most c...
Orchid Island Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: the company delivered a clear operational and market-performance rebound in the quarter (positive EPS, strong total return, improved hedge coverage and portfolio growth), but it faces significant near-term headwinds from market volatility, recent post-quarter book value declines, a meaningful dividend cut, compression in net interest spread and some leverage extension. Management has taken steps to increase hedging and adjust portfolio composition, and expects some expense normalization, but uncertainty from geopolitical events and Fed policy creates continued execution risk. Overall, positives during the quarter were meaningful, but recent market moves and the dividend reduction temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Earnings Recovery and Strong Quarterly Return
Reported Q2 earnings of $0.44 per share versus a loss of $0.11 in Q1, with total return for the quarter of 6.2% compared to -1.3% in the prior quarter, marking a meaningful sequential improvement in profitability and shareholder return.
Negative Updates
Dividend Reduction
Quarterly dividend was reduced to $0.30 from $0.36 in Q1, a decline of 16.7%, reflecting management conservatism given market conditions and lower short-term liquidity for raising accretive capital.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Recovery and Strong Quarterly Return
Reported Q2 earnings of $0.44 per share versus a loss of $0.11 in Q1, with total return for the quarter of 6.2% compared to -1.3% in the prior quarter, marking a meaningful sequential improvement in profitability and shareholder return.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was cautious and focused on protecting the dividend and hedged funding while monitoring geopolitical-driven rate volatility: they will make only modest portfolio tweaks as needed (average portfolio $11.4B, average coupon down 6 bps, all 30‑yr concentrated in 5s/5.5s/6s), expect prepayment speeds to stay slow (10.9% in Q2 vs 14.7% in Q1) and liquidity to remain ample (53.7%), and noted book value was $7.22 at quarter end ($7.08 start), EPS $0.44 in Q2, dividend $0.30 (reduced from $0.36), total return 6.2% (vs -1.3% Q1) and a portfolio yield ~5.74% (down 1 bp) with economic funding cost +5 bps and net interest spread down 6 bps; economic leverage was 7.3x at quarter end (reported ~7.73x as of last night), swaps notional rose to ~$10.1B (from $7.9B) covering ~70% of repo and hedges covered ~91% of repo funding, weighted‑average pay fixed ~3.61%, MOVE ~80 and mortgage rate ~6.75%, and management said funding costs should remain fairly stable given high hedge coverage, prepayments should slow further, expenses (expense ratio ~2% this quarter due to one‑off share awards) should trend down toward ~1.7%, and mortgages are cheapening—making incremental deployment attractive if and when they can raise capital.Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 531.77M | 179.51M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -241.00M | -49.89M |
| Gross Profit | 329.39M | 175.52M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -243.88M | -49.89M |
| EBITDA | 624.93M | 464.76M | 273.94M | 162.69M | 0.00 | -57.67M |
| Net Income | 244.72M | 159.03M | 37.66M | -39.23M | -258.45M | -64.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.10B | 11.68B | 5.72B | 4.26B | 3.87B | 7.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 813.63M | 724.56M | 309.33M | 241.03M | 205.65M | 385.14M |
| Total Debt | 11.58B | 10.24B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 11.66B | 10.30B | 5.05B | 3.80B | 3.43B | 6.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.37B | 668.50M | 469.94M | 438.76M | 768.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 206.45M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.45M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.57B | -5.38B | -1.42B | -441.06M | 2.44B | -3.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.72B | 5.65B | 1.48B | 396.13M | -2.94B | 3.07B |
Orchid Island Capital Risk Analysis
Orchid Island Capital disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orchid Island Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.74B | 8.21 | 11.87% | 11.58% | 30.22% | 35.19% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $1.31B | 4.43 | 18.50% | 20.46% | 89.39% | 661.99% | |
56 Neutral | $904.74M | 6.78 | 8.23% | 16.09% | 19.70% | 13.45% | |
55 Neutral | $840.63M | 6.69 | 8.88% | 16.60% | 21.86% | 97.23% | |
49 Neutral | $974.41M | -15.56 | 0.05% | 14.09% | 14.40% | -178.46% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.55
0.59
9.86%
CIM
Chimera Investment
11.64
-1.14
-8.93%
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.47
1.33
10.99%
MFA
MFA Financial
8.95
0.19
2.13%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
9.64
-1.16
-10.74%
Orchid Island Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares August 2026 Monthly Dividend
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. announced that its board had declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for August 2026, payable on September 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 31, 2026, which is also the ex-d...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares July Monthly Dividend
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Orchid Island Capital announced that its board declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for July 2026, payable on August 28 to shareholders of record as of July 31, with the same date set as the ex-dividend date. The co...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Expands Stock Buyback Authorization Significantly
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. said its board approved a major expansion of its stock repurchase program, lifting total authorization to repurchase up to 26,612,580 common shares, or about 13.3% of shares outstanding. The buybacks m...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Orchid Island Capital Declares Monthly Dividend, Updates RMBS Portfolio
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance REIT focused on leveraged investments in agency residential mortgage-backed securities, saw shareholders elect six directors and ratify BDO USA, P.C. as i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.