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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(28.67% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/13/26
Overall score reflects strong underlying profitability and generally sound financial positioning, partially offset by mixed cash-flow conversion and questions around the sustainability of recent growth. Technicals are moderately supportive but not decisively long-term bullish (below the 200-day average). Valuation looks fair at ~19x earnings without dividend support, while the latest call and buyback authorization add confidence but are tempered by weaker comps and lowered near-term comp expectations.
Positive Factors
Strong Profitability
Ollie’s maintains strong profitability for a discount retailer, with healthy gross and operating margins supporting reinvestment in stores, distribution and pricing. The margin recovery versus earlier periods indicates improved earnings power, although sustaining these levels remains important as temporary benefits fade.
Negative Factors
Weak Comparable Sales
Negative comparable sales indicate that recent revenue growth is relying heavily on new stores rather than broad-based productivity across the existing fleet. Prolonged softness could reduce fixed-cost leverage, constrain operating margins and make the company more dependent on continued expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Profitability
Ollie’s maintains strong profitability for a discount retailer, with healthy gross and operating margins supporting reinvestment in stores, distribution and pricing. The margin recovery versus earlier periods indicates improved earnings power, although sustaining these levels remains important as temporary benefits fade.
Read all positive factors
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.5
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth14.43%
EPS Growth29.33%
CountryUS
Employees13,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.50
Shares Outstanding59,402,405
10 Day Avg. Volume1,713,785
30 Day Avg. Volume1,765,754
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.39
Price to Book (P/B)3.58
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio34.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.00Price Target Upside35.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.93B
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading discount retailer, offering a wide variety of brand-name goods. The company's diverse inventory includes home essentials such as housewares, bed and bath products, and floor coverings, as...
How the Company Makes Money
Ollie’s primarily makes money by purchasing merchandise at steep discounts (often through closeouts, excess inventory, discontinued items, packaging changes, retailer/manufacturer overproduction, or other opportunistic supply situations) and resel...
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 02, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was cautiously optimistic. Ollie's delivered substantial earnings, EBITDA and cash-flow-related strength, continued store growth, strong customer loyalty gains, robust deal flow and ongoing supply-chain investments. However, comparable sales declined 1.8%, seasonal categories were materially affected by weather, consumers remained selective, promotions were unusually aggressive, and full-year comparable-sales expectations were reduced to flat to positive 0.5%. Management maintained confidence in long-term profitable growth while taking a more measured view of the near term.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth Despite Challenging Sales Environment
Adjusted net income increased 40% to $85 million, adjusted earnings per share increased 43% to $1.42, adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $127 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 330 basis points to 17.1%.
Negative Updates
Comparable Store Sales Declined
Comparable store sales decreased 1.8%, reflecting flat transactions and a decrease in basket, against mid- to high-single-digit comparable increases in each of the prior three years.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings Growth Despite Challenging Sales Environment
Adjusted net income increased 40% to $85 million, adjusted earnings per share increased 43% to $1.42, adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $127 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 330 basis points to 17.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The revised fiscal 2026 outlook assumes 75 new store openings, 2 store closures from storm damage, net sales of $2.928 billion to $2.941 billion, comparable store sales growth of flat to positive 0.5%, gross margin in the range of 41.3%, operating income of $345 million to $350 million, adjusted net income of $275 million to $279 million and adjusted net income per share of $4.57 to $4.65; the back half assumes comp growth close to flat in the third quarter and up 1% in the fourth quarter, $28 million of tariff refunds, net of a 50 basis point investment in price, current tariff rates and fuel costs remain in place for the balance of the fiscal year, depreciation and amortization expense of $62 million, inclusive of $15 million included in cost of goods sold, preopening expenses of $21 million, interest income of $22 million, an annual effective tax rate of approximately 25%, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 60 million, a higher share repurchase level of $175 million and capital expenditures in the range of $103 million to $113 million; the company is planning for the full year to invest approximately $15 million in price investments and expects fuel pressure to continue to be in the range of, say, 20 to 30 basis points, while its long-term target for gross margin remains 40.5%.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.79B | 2.65B | 2.27B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 1.03B | 914.45M | 832.37M | 656.09M | 681.25M |
| EBITDA | 422.64M | 378.18M | 293.46M | 277.42M | 171.31M | 239.16M |
| Net Income | 273.58M | 240.60M | 199.76M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.03B | 2.95B | 2.56B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.50M | 296.31M | 428.67M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M |
| Total Debt | 725.65M | 685.93M | 564.87M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 431.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.13B | 1.07B | 865.84M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.89B | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 223.24M | 194.66M | 106.90M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 340.75M | 296.54M | 227.45M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -272.57M | -179.93M | -255.34M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -178.58M | -62.06M | -33.25M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
74.61
Price Trends
81.29
Positive
77.28
Positive
87.81
Negative
Market Momentum
3.06
Positive
51.44
Neutral
50.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.09, below the 50-day MA of 81.29, and below the 200-day MA of 87.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $951.18B | 43.28 | 22.74% | 0.82% | 6.16% | 4.00% | |
72 Outperform | $5.21B | 19.49 | 14.58% | ― | 14.43% | 29.33% | |
68 Neutral | $69.40B | 15.77 | 26.66% | 3.00% | 1.95% | 12.49% | |
64 Neutral | $29.27B | 17.17 | 19.56% | 1.78% | 4.77% | 42.79% | |
63 Neutral | $23.51B | 15.28 | 45.58% | ― | -7.85% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $1.32B | -3.44 | -40.07% | ― | 5.12% | -4889.01% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
87.72
-36.49
-29.38%
DG
Dollar General
132.69
31.86
31.60%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
125.31
22.72
22.15%
TGT
Target
152.76
58.79
62.57%
WMT
Walmart
119.89
16.29
15.73%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
13.30
-1.05
-7.32%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Ollie’s Announces Expanded Share Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
On October 13, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. announced that its board had unanimously approved a new share repurchase authorization for an additional $500 million of its outstanding common stock, lifting total available repurch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.