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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(5.06% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/25/26
Overall score reflects a solid TTM financial rebound and improving leverage, reinforced by constructive price trends and a positive earnings-call outlook (record profitability and continued deleveraging). The main constraints are cyclical/volatile earnings and cash conversion, near-term operational and turnaround execution risks, and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Record Renewable-driven EBITDA
Record Q2 comparable EBITDA driven mainly by Renewable Products shows durable cash-generating capacity in the company's strategic growth area. Strong RP contribution (almost 75% of EBITDA) underscores a resilient business mix that supports funding for upgrades, deleveraging and expansion over the coming 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Operational Reliability / Low RP Utilization
Sub‑optimal RP utilization reduces fixed-cost absorption and curtails achievable margins even when product spreads are strong. Persistent reliability issues require capex and upgrades; until utilization meaningfully improves, earnings and cash flow remain vulnerable to operational downtime and underused capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Renewable-driven EBITDA
Record Q2 comparable EBITDA driven mainly by Renewable Products shows durable cash-generating capacity in the company's strategic growth area. Strong RP contribution (almost 75% of EBITDA) underscores a resilient business mix that supports funding for upgrades, deleveraging and expansion over the coming 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.83B
Dividend Yield0.64%
Average Volume (3M)13.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth6.90%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees4,848
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume27,373
30 Day Avg. Volume13,770
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio17.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.18B
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company specializing in both renewable and conventional oil products. Headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company maintains a significant global presence, serving markets across the Nordics, Baltic Rim, wider Europe,...
How the Company Makes Money
Neste makes money primarily by producing and selling fuels and fuel components across two main business areas: renewables and oil products. In its renewables business, Neste generates revenue by selling renewable diesel (often marketed as HVO rene...
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and strategic picture: record Q2 EBITDA, record RFP margins, a strengthened balance sheet with active deleveraging, confirmed credit rating, favorable regulatory developments (RED III and U.S. RVO) and an encouraging long-term demand outlook. These positives were tempered by operational and timing challenges: RP utilization below target (75%), significant working capital and inventory build-up pressuring cash flow, and substantial scheduled turnarounds that will reduce volumes in H2 and require higher near-term CapEx. Management emphasized ongoing reliability upgrades, prudent turnaround execution and a priority on deleveraging and delivering returns before any major new capacity push. Overall, the highlights (record results, regulatory tailwinds, deleveraging and program savings) outweigh the lowlights (operational reliability, working capital strain and turnaround timing risks).Positive Updates
Record Financial Results
Comparable EBITDA reached a record EUR 1.2 billion in Q2, driven primarily by Renewable Products; almost 75% of EBITDA came from Renewable Products.
Negative Updates
Renewable Products Utilization and Operational Reliability
RP utilization rate was reported at 75%, described as 'unsatisfactory'; management highlighted ongoing operational reliability issues and the need for upgrades to improve utilization.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results
Comparable EBITDA reached a record EUR 1.2 billion in Q2, driven primarily by Renewable Products; almost 75% of EBITDA came from Renewable Products.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Neste guided that Renewable Products (RP) sales volumes in 2026 are expected to be approximately flat versus 2025 while Oil Products (OP) sales volumes will be lower year‑on‑year due to the planned Porvoo maintenance turnaround; the Group narrowed full‑year 2026 cash‑out CapEx (ex‑M&A) to ~EUR 1.2bn and confirmed three H2 2026 turnarounds—Porvoo ~8 weeks (starting end‑Aug), Rotterdam ~8 weeks (Q4) and Singapore ~11 weeks (from Dec)—which management expects will lift utilization (RP was 75% in Q2, OP ~90% in Q2) and improve the ability to process higher‑premium, more complex feedstocks. Q2 metrics supporting the outlook include RP sales >1.0m tonnes, record comparable EBITDA €1.2bn, RP sales margin roughly $1,200/ton (quarter average >$1,000/ton), total refining margin ≈$25.8/bbl, performance‑improvement program run‑rate EUR 594m (end‑June) with EUR 145m realized in‑quarter, cash flow before financing €164m, and balance‑sheet actions (EUR 500m note tender) that pushed net debt/ capital below 30% with Moody’s A3 Stable—management says it is comfortably on track to meet its 2025–26 financial targets.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.63B | 19.02B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B |
| Gross Profit | 3.27B | 1.00B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B |
| EBITDA | 2.67B | 1.28B | 700.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B |
| Net Income | 1.52B | 138.32M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.39B | 15.75B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 1.37B | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B |
| Total Debt | 4.70B | 5.18B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.93B | 8.44B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.46B | 7.31B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.42B | 825.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.24B | 1.75B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -949.01M | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.10B | -299.69M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Positive
18.56
Price Trends
17.20
Positive
16.66
Positive
14.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Negative
54.44
Neutral
36.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.67, above the 50-day MA of 17.20, and above the 200-day MA of 14.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $101.45B | 14.61 | 29.94% | 1.54% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
79 Outperform | $17.73B | 9.47 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
76 Outperform | $103.58B | 12.70 | 48.71% | 1.26% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
75 Outperform | $97.37B | 13.84 | 24.45% | 2.39% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
70 Outperform | $27.83B | 15.80 | 19.78% | 0.65% | 6.90% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $15.29B | 14.55 | 18.17% | 4.99% | 83.34% | 123.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
Neste
18.18
9.01
98.35%
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99.71
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102.37%
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88.08%
VLO
Valero Energy
352.36
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136.72%
SUN
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74.65
25.49
51.85%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.