Neste (NTOIY) AI Stock Analysis

Neste

(Other OTC:NTOIY)

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Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:$17.00▲(7.47% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/30/26

The score is driven primarily by improved TTM profitability, leverage, and free-cash-flow strength, reinforced by a broadly positive earnings-call outlook and execution highlights. These positives are moderated by weak technical momentum (downtrend/oversold signals) and business volatility/cyclicality, while valuation is supportive on P/E but less so on dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Renewable-fuels market positionNeste is positioned in renewable diesel and SAF markets supported by favorable European regulation and rising low-carbon fuel demand. A potentially doubling regional market provides a durable growth opportunity, while diversified country exposure can strengthen resilience across individual markets.

Negative Factors

Earnings cyclicalityThe sharp variation in profitability shows that Neste remains sensitive to refining margins, renewable premiums, feedstock costs, and operating conditions. This cyclicality makes current earnings less reliable as a durable baseline and can constrain investment capacity during weaker periods.

Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $24.02B
Dividend Yield: 0.73%
Average Volume (3M): 52.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
Beta (1Y): 0.40
Revenue Growth: 6.90%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: US
Employees: 4,848
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company specializing in both renewable and conventional oil products. Headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company maintains a significant global presence, serving markets across the Nordics, Baltic Rim, wider Europe, No...

How the Company Makes Money

Neste makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling fuels and fuel-related products, with revenues largely driven by sales volumes, product mix (renewable vs. fossil), and market pricing/spreads. (1) Renewable Products: A major earnings driver i...

Neste Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-3.07%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall, with record Q3 volumes and earnings, a 97% Renewable Products utilization rate, substantial progress in deleveraging, an improvement program that delivered nearly twice its original target, and a favorable renewable-fuels market and regulatory outlook. The main negatives were the higher cost and delayed timing of the Rotterdam expansion, ongoing turnaround-related volume constraints, safety stagnation, SAF competition, hedging pressure, and continued market volatility. Management remained confident in the Rotterdam investment and the company's long-term growth strategy.

Positive Updates

Record Q3 Production and Earnings

Neste described Q3 2026 as a historical achievement. Renewable Products volumes reached almost 1.3 million kilotons, a record level, the Oil Products refining margin was exceptionally high at $48 per barrel, total company EBITDA was over EUR 1.5 billion, and Renewable Products generated approximately $1 billion of EBITDA.

Negative Updates

Rotterdam Expansion Budget Revision and Delay

The Rotterdam expansion budget was revised upward, described by an analyst as taking the project to around $3 billion, and the project was delayed again. Management said the complexity of the project, sequencing issues, limited recent experience with projects of this magnitude in Central Europe, and the need to add suppliers, people, and qualified staff contributed to the challenge.

Company Guidance

The outlook remains unchanged and the guidance remains unchanged: full-year investments are guided at approximately EUR 1.2 billion; Renewable Products sales volume guidance is “approximately on the same level,” with 2026 guidance intact; Rotterdam 2 is planned for technical start-up end of 2027, with commercial ramp-up starting in early 2028, so “for your '27 volumes, you should not plan for the Rotterdam Line 2”; terming is historically targeted in the “50%, 60% range”; Renewable Products utilization is “targeting that low 80s,” while “would not use the 90% as a new normal yet”; and the new dividend policy is to pay 20% to 40% of earnings per share.

Neste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TTM financials show a strong rebound with solid margins and ~9.8% revenue growth, improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.49), and robust free cash flow (~$2.39B). The main constraint is pronounced cyclicality/volatility across recent years (including a loss/near-breakeven period) and uneven cash conversion historically (including negative FCF in prior years).

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

66Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.65B	19.02B	20.64B	22.93B	25.71B	15.15B
Gross Profit	4.58B	1.00B	2.05B	3.66B	3.42B	2.81B
EBITDA	3.73B	1.28B	999.00M	2.58B	2.97B	2.59B
Net Income	2.45B	138.32M	-95.00M	1.43B	1.89B	1.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.33B	15.75B	15.58B	15.98B	14.92B	12.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.90B	1.37B	955.00M	1.58B	1.27B	1.72B
Total Debt	4.67B	5.18B	5.15B	4.07B	2.62B	1.76B
Total Liabilities	9.81B	8.44B	8.16B	7.52B	6.59B	5.43B
Stockholders Equity	9.51B	7.31B	7.42B	8.46B	8.32B	6.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.39B	825.00M	-369.00M	849.00M	-546.00M	1.02B
Operating Cash Flow	3.34B	1.75B	1.18B	2.28B	1.20B	1.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.23B	-949.01M	-1.50B	-1.53B	-1.59B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-995.34M	-299.69M	-314.00M	-441.00M	-37.00M	-377.00M

Neste Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price15.82

Price Trends

50DMA18.41Negative

100DMA17.66Negative

200DMA16.24Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.63Positive

RSI30.27Neutral

STOCH0.14Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.57, below the 50-day MA of 18.41, and below the 200-day MA of 16.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTOIY.

Neste Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

NTOIY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	82Outperform	$19.71B	5.82	34.53%	1.76%	29.47%	848.69%
PSX	81Outperform	$110.32B	8.99	40.75%	1.77%	29.13%	755.53%
MPC	78Outperform	$124.89B	15.31	48.71%	0.90%	15.19%	331.26%
VLO	75Outperform	$111.46B	8.98	51.49%	1.18%	25.10%	825.03%
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NTOIY	64Neutral	$24.39B	8.88	29.70%	0.73%	6.90%	―
WKC	56Neutral	$1.91B	-12.79	-13.12%	2.30%	21.05%	62.41%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NTOIY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NTOIY	Neste Corporation Unsponsored ADR	15.82	5.58	54.56%
DINO	HF Sinclair Corporation	115.00	63.30	122.42%
MPC	Marathon Petroleum	444.73	252.16	130.94%
PSX	Phillips 66 (PSX)	282.83	148.88	111.14%
VLO	Valero Energy Corporation	399.66	231.62	137.84%
WKC	World Kinect Corporation	37.34	12.02	47.46%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026

Neste AI Stock Analysis