Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) AI Stock Analysis

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Norsk Hydro

(Other OTC:NHYDY)

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Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:$8.00▲(11.33% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/27/26

The score is driven primarily by improved TTM profitability and a solid balance sheet, partially offset by weaker cash conversion. Technicals are the biggest headwind with a clear downtrend despite oversold readings. Valuation (low P/E and ~4.4% yield) and a generally positive earnings call provide support, though near-term disruptions/cost headwinds and longer-term market balance concerns temper upside.

Positive Factors

Profitability reboundThe sharp improvement in earnings and margins shows stronger current operating profitability after a weaker period. If aluminum prices and production remain supportive, the rebound can strengthen internal funding capacity and provide a firmer earnings base over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversionThe gap between accounting profit and free cash flow indicates that working capital and capital-spending demands are absorbing a meaningful portion of earnings. Persistently weak conversion could constrain debt reduction, shareholder distributions, and investment flexibility through the cycle.

Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $14.08B
Dividend Yield: 4.48%
Average Volume (3M): 305.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
Beta (1Y): 0.74
Revenue Growth: 5.52%
EPS Growth: 34.01%
Country: US
Employees: 31,618
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Aluminum

Norsk Hydro Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Norsk Hydro ASA is a globally operating industrial enterprise, deeply involved in the aluminum value chain from its raw materials to finished products, as well as significant energy operations. Its comprehensive activities include bauxite mining, alu...

How the Company Makes Money

Norsk Hydro primarily makes money by producing and selling aluminum and aluminum products, with earnings shaped by commodity prices, value-added product premiums, and energy costs. Key revenue streams include: (1) Primary aluminum: Hydro sells standa...

Norsk Hydro Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-6.33%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 15, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive, supported by strong group earnings, higher aluminum prices, record Norwegian smelter production, improved recycling and extrusion volumes, strategic customer wins, long-term power procurement, the Slovalco restart, and the HalZero milestone. These positives were tempered by rising safety rates, the Alunorte gas disruption and associated $90 million to $110 million Q4 impact, weaker Bauxite & Alumina and Energy results, working-capital absorption, trading losses related to Middle East disruptions, softer North American demand, and expected aluminum market surplus in 2027. Overall, the highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Strong Group Financial Performance

Q3 revenue increased approximately 3% year-over-year to NOK 52.1 billion, while adjusted EBITDA reached NOK 9.1 billion and reported EBITDA was NOK 8.7 billion. Adjusted EBIT was NOK 6.3 billion, adjusted net income was NOK 4.4 billion, and adjusted EPS increased to NOK 2.28 from NOK 1.02 in Q3 2025.

Negative Updates

Safety Rates Trending Higher

Although injury and high-risk incident rates remain at low levels, both TRI and HRI rates have been creeping up from record lows reported a few quarters ago. Hydro said the development over the last year is somewhat worrying and that it is intensifying efforts toward zero injuries and high-risk incidents.

Company Guidance

For Q4, Alunorte expects higher sales volumes as production is fully recovered, with a financial impact of USD 90 million to USD 110 million negative from gas price differentials, subject to changes in gas prices and other relevant factors; Aluminum Metal has booked 59% of primary production at USD 3,148 per metric tonne and 49% of premiums at USD 742 per tonne, expects realized premium in the range of USD 550 to USD 600 per tonne, carbon costs to increase NOK 250 million to NOK 350 million, alumina cost to increase NOK 100 million to NOK 200 million, and fixed costs to increase by NOK 150 million to NOK 250 million; Metal Markets expects somewhat weaker recycling results and sourcing and trading results in a range of minus NOK 150 million to minus NOK 250 million; Extrusions expects higher sales volumes, current strong recycling margins in the U.S. and Europe to continue into Q4, and overall margins to be stable; Energy expects the usual seasonal increase in production and power prices, while losses from price area differences could remain broadly in line with Q3; year-end net operating capital is expected to be around NOK 32 billion and full-year CapEx around NOK 12.5 billion.

Norsk Hydro Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has rebounded in the TTM period (net income ~12.9B vs ~6.7B in 2025; net margin ~6.3% vs ~3.2%), and leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.33) with a growing equity base. The main drag is weaker cash-flow quality: free cash flow (~6.7B) is only ~37% of net income and declined versus the prior year, indicating uneven cash conversion and cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	206.16B	207.97B	203.63B	193.62B	207.93B	149.65B
Gross Profit	62.07B	64.53B	74.29B	70.08B	78.56B	52.97B
EBITDA	32.21B	27.55B	22.19B	18.27B	42.22B	27.79B
Net Income	12.90B	6.72B	5.79B	3.58B	24.15B	12.16B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	209.96B	208.30B	207.37B	206.46B	198.62B	174.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.71B	27.75B	16.77B	26.48B	31.70B	26.57B
Total Debt	35.43B	36.57B	11.00M	954.00M	32.77B	28.42B
Total Liabilities	95.08B	101.20B	99.92B	99.28B	90.82B	86.13B
Stockholders Equity	107.31B	99.84B	101.46B	100.58B	102.45B	84.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.67B	11.73B	1.80B	8.58B	19.79B	4.66B
Operating Cash Flow	18.06B	23.31B	15.36B	22.22B	29.39B	10.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.94B	-17.91B	-12.92B	-20.76B	-10.56B	-4.68B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.11B	-3.72B	-12.56B	-6.70B	-13.25B	-4.37B

Norsk Hydro Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price7.19

Price Trends

50DMA8.78Negative

100DMA9.10Negative

200DMA9.64Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.41Positive

RSI23.54Positive

STOCH11.05Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHYDY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.85, below the 50-day MA of 8.78, and below the 200-day MA of 9.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.54 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NHYDY.

Norsk Hydro Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

NHYDY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	77Outperform	$22.26B	20.24	15.07%	1.13%	24.75%	56.89%
CENX	72Outperform	$3.34B	5.53	58.57%	―	9.67%	399.06%
CSTM	72Outperform	$3.11B	5.46	49.37%	―	26.10%	417.58%
AA	70Outperform	$10.34B	6.70	21.40%	1.02%	10.27%	32.09%
NHYDY	64Neutral	$14.07B	10.04	12.55%	4.48%	5.52%	34.01%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
KALU	59Neutral	$1.90B	8.67	24.13%	2.65%	40.43%	136.99%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NHYDY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NHYDY	Norsk Hydro	7.19	0.57	8.62%
AA	Alcoa Corporation	39.19	2.38	6.46%
CENX	Century Aluminum Co	33.70	2.97	9.66%
KALU	Kaiser Aluminum	116.28	24.96	27.33%
RS	Reliance Steel & Aluminum	436.91	159.73	57.63%
CSTM	Constellium NV	23.11	6.89	42.48%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 27, 2026

Norsk Hydro AI Stock Analysis