nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.85B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 13.45%
• EPS Growth: 12.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,833
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 115,215,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,756,107
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,212,423
• PEG Ratio: 0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 51.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $25.75
• Price Target Upside: 4.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

nCino's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and solid balance sheet. However, persistent profitability challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh down the score. Positive strategic initiatives and leadership changes are promising, but the company must overcome execution challenges to improve its outlook.

Positive Factors

Growth strategy

NCino's growth strategy and commitment to becoming a Rule-of-40 business are seen as encouraging.

Investment strategy

The investment strategy for its platform and nCino’s go-to-market strategy are the right moves to drive long-term durable growth.

Product innovation

NCino's suite of new products and a new pricing model could potentially catalyze a reacceleration in growth.

Negative Factors

Booking performance

Disappointing fiscal 2026 guidance appears to be primarily driven by softer-than-expected bookings in fiscal 2025.

Guidance

NCino shares down 30% as fiscal 2026 guidance was well below Street expectations.

Sales execution

Challenged sales execution, longer than anticipated acquisition integration, and elevated interest rates are some of the reasons affecting the outlook.

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

nCino generates revenue primarily through the sale of subscriptions to its cloud-based software solutions. The company's revenue model is based on a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) framework, where financial institutions pay subscription fees to access and utilize the nCino Bank Operating System. These fees typically depend on the size of the institution and the scope of the services they subscribe to. Additionally, nCino earns revenue from professional services, such as implementation, training, and support, which are offered to assist clients in deploying and optimizing the nCino platform. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major technology firms, such as Salesforce, which enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.

Income Statement

nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.

Cash Flow

Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
540.66M	476.54M	273.87M	204.29M	204.29M
	Gross Profit
324.79M	285.07M	162.45M	116.16M	116.16M
	EBIT
-18.13M	-39.51M	-71.36M	-42.61M	-42.61M
	EBITDA
9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-59.90M	-33.12M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-37.88M	-42.35M	-50.12M	-41.27M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
120.93M	112.08M	88.01M	371.43M	371.43M
	Total Assets
1.61B	1.34B	1.30B	563.40M	563.40M
	Total Debt
236.82M	74.23M	48.84M	16.26M	16.26M
	Net Debt
115.90M	-37.86M	-39.17M	-355.16M	-355.16M
	Total Liabilities
512.78M	287.83M	230.51M	134.43M	134.43M
	Stockholders Equity
1.09B	1.05B	1.07B	425.18M	425.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
53.38M	53.41M	-24.69M	4.88M	4.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
55.20M	57.28M	-19.23M	9.22M	9.22M
	Investing Cash Flow
-219.18M	-6.33M	-278.49M	-4.34M	-4.34M
	Financing Cash Flow
170.48M	-21.11M	15.92M	274.12M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.46, below the 50-day MA of 25.13, and below the 200-day MA of 31.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YOU	77 Outperform	$3.29B	13.21	124.77%	1.83%	21.59%	223.84%
SEMR	66 Neutral	$1.60B	231.83	2.81%	―	22.75%	-47.45%
ALKT	63 Neutral	$3.18B	―	-11.33%	―	26.55%	38.37%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.58B	10.33	-7.23%	2.94%	7.47%	-10.84%
QTWO	59 Neutral	$5.61B	―	-3.95%	―	13.12%	75.24%
NCNO	58 Neutral	$2.85B	―	-3.54%	―	13.45%	12.86%
NRDY	48 Neutral	$313.08M	―	-104.69%	―	-1.64%	9.99%

nCino Corporate Events

nCino Reports Strong Revenue Growth and New CEO Appointment

On April 1, 2025, nCino reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, showing significant growth in revenues and subscription services. Despite a GAAP net loss, the company achieved a 14% increase in total revenues for the quarter and a 13% increase for the fiscal year, with subscription revenues growing by 16% and 15% respectively. The company also announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strategy to generate stockholder value. Recent business highlights include the appointment of Sean Desmond as CEO, the acquisition of Sandbox Banking to enhance data connectivity, and new partnerships with major banks in the U.S. and the Czech Republic.