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nCino
(NASDAQ:NCNO)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(44.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
NCNO scores well on improving fundamentals—especially strong free cash flow, a de-risked balance sheet, and an earnings call that raised guidance with meaningful margin and FCF expansion targets. Technicals support the trend but look near overbought, while a high P/E and no dividend reduce valuation support and increase sensitivity to any growth or mortgage-related setbacks.
Positive Factors
Platform Adoption
Broad platform adoption and successful enterprise renewals can deepen customer entrenchment, support recurring revenue expansion, and improve pricing power as banks adopt more nCino modules.
Negative Factors
Mortgage Exposure
Exposure to mortgage lenders remains a structural drag because prolonged high rates and independent mortgage bank consolidation can reduce customer demand, increase churn, and constrain overall subscription growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform Adoption
Broad platform adoption and successful enterprise renewals can deepen customer entrenchment, support recurring revenue expansion, and improve pricing power as banks adopt more nCino modules.
Read all positive factors
nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals the profitability of different business segments, helping investors understand which areas are driving earnings and which may need improvement.
Reveals the profitability of different business segments, helping investors understand which areas are driving earnings and which may need improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlynCino (NCNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.4
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,684
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding105,736,176
10 Day Avg. Volume1,977,186
30 Day Avg. Volume3,275,891
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.71
Price to Book (P/B)2.28
Price to Sales (P/S)4.05
P/FCF Ratio29.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.40Price Target Upside41.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$644.69M
nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
nCino, Inc. operates as a software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider, delivering cloud-based applications to financial organizations both within the United States and internationally. Its core product, the nCino Bank Operating System, is a multi-tenant...
How the Company Makes Money
nCino primarily makes money by selling its cloud software to financial institutions under a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. Revenue is largely generated through recurring subscription fees that customers pay to access and use the nCino platfor...
nCino Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q2-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted broad-based operational and financial strength: revenue and subscription growth, significant improvement in operating income and free cash flow, active share repurchases, international momentum, and tangible customer ROI from AI features. Management raised FY27 guidance and emphasized accelerating AI adoption and platform conversions (48% ACV on platform pricing). Principal negatives are concentrated in the U.S. mortgage/IMB segment (modest revenue decline, higher churn) and timing delays converting AI sandbox usage into production revenue. Overall, the positives — strong growth outside mortgage, margin expansion, cash generation, platform traction and AI monetization progress — substantially outweigh the mortgage-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenues of $161.0M in Q2 FY27, up 8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
U.S. Mortgage Headwind and IMB Churn
U.S. mortgage subscription revenues were $20.6M in Q2, down 1% year-over-year. Management reduced U.S. mortgage outlook to ≈$20M in Q3 and ≈$18.5M in Q4, citing 'higher-for-longer' mortgage rates and incremental IMB churn; they lowered prior forecasts by ~$700K (Q3) and ~$1.2M (Q4).
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenues of $161.0M in Q2 FY27, up 8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
nCino guided third-quarter fiscal 2027 total revenues of $161.25M–$163.25M and subscription revenues of $143.25M–$145.25M (Q3 midpoint implying ~7–8% growth; excluding U.S. mortgage subscription growth of ~11% at the midpoint), with non‑GAAP operating income of ~$42M–$44M (~+8% YoY at midpoint). For fiscal 2027 the company now expects total revenues of $644M–$647M and subscription revenues of $573.5M–$576.5M (midpoint growth ~9–10%; excluding U.S. mortgage ~12% at midpoint), non‑GAAP operating income $171M–$174M (≈+33% YoY at midpoint, ~500 bps margin expansion), net ACV additions $60M–$65M (cumulative ACV $662.5M–$667.5M, +10% vs FY26 at midpoint) and free cash flow $137M–$142M (≈+69% YoY at midpoint). Management is extrapolating Q2’s ~$1.3M subscription overperformance into Q3/Q4, assumes U.S. mortgage subscription revenues of roughly $20M in Q3 and $18.5M in Q4 (repricing reduces prior Q3/Q4 mortgage forecasts by ~$700K and ~$1.2M, respectively), models ~ $200K FX headwinds in each of Q3/Q4, and reiterated aggregate annual churn of about $25M.nCino Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 622.24M | 594.78M | 540.66M | 476.54M | 408.31M | 273.87M |
| Gross Profit | 382.74M | 360.17M | 324.79M | 285.07M | 238.71M | 162.45M |
| EBITDA | 82.45M | 66.42M | 9.55M | 7.46M | -56.47M | -62.43M |
| Net Income | 33.60M | 5.18M | -37.88M | -42.35M | -102.72M | -49.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.57B | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.29M | 88.37M | 120.93M | 112.08M | 82.04M | 88.01M |
| Total Debt | 22.50M | 278.69M | 236.82M | 74.23M | 96.54M | 48.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 626.52M | 579.45M | 512.78M | 287.83M | 299.60M | 230.51M |
| Stockholders Equity | 929.83M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 132.17M | 82.56M | 52.93M | 53.41M | -34.28M | -24.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 133.61M | 90.06M | 55.20M | 57.28M | -15.38M | -19.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.44M | -54.08M | -219.18M | -5.34M | -20.73M | -278.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -172.15M | -73.03M | 170.48M | -22.10M | 36.71M | 15.92M |
nCino Technical Analysis
Positive
16.56
Price Trends
17.98
Positive
17.32
Positive
19.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.89
Negative
69.48
Neutral
88.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.84, below the 50-day MA of 17.98, and below the 200-day MA of 19.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCNO.
nCino Risk Analysis
nCino disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
nCino Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $3.98B | 43.91 | 14.49% | ― | 13.90% | 1906.95% | |
82 Outperform | $3.36B | 19.66 | 19.50% | ― | 15.57% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $2.28B | 69.39 | 3.36% | ― | 8.57% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $3.11B | -77.69 | -10.77% | ― | 14.62% | -120.98% | |
68 Neutral | $1.84B | 53.24 | 10.84% | ― | 8.62% | -58.32% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
52 Neutral | $1.12B | -2.03 | -40.51% | ― | 2.66% | -808.37% |
* Technology Sector Average
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nCino Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
nCino Delivers Strong Q2 Results and New Buyback
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
On August 25, 2026, nCino reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 results showing continued top-line growth and marked profitability improvement, with total revenue rising 8% year over year to $161.0 million and subscription revenue up 10% to $143.5 m...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
nCino Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Director Elections
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
nCino held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 18, 2026, with approximately 88.7% of eligible shares represented, and shareholders elected three directors to one-year terms and one Class II director to a two-year term. Investors also ratifi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.