Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
Top Page
Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Business Model
Murphy’s has an advantaged business model within the U.S. C-store, and the company and stock have been strong performers, up significantly over the last five years.
Growth Initiatives
MUSA is well-positioned for continued growth, leveraging multiple strategic initiatives, including store expansions, targeted promotions, and operational efficiencies.
Operational Efficiency
Operational efficiencies and new/existing store investments maximize productivity and enhance the overall shopping experience, reinforcing customer retention and spend per visit.
Negative Factors
Consumer Trends
QuickChek and its food-led offer continues to see pressure from changing consumer trends and 'value wars' amongst QSR peers.
Earnings Performance
Q1 earnings per share of $2.63 fell 34% below the consensus of $3.96.
Sales Performance
Same-store merchandise sales decreased, driven by a decline in both nicotine and non-nicotine sales, which were below estimates.
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.06B
Dividend Yield0.41%
Average Volume (3M)327.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth-6.43%
EPS Growth-0.81%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength74
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.65
Shares Outstanding19,761,644
10 Day Avg. Volume517,138
30 Day Avg. Volume327,599
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-88.62
Price to Book (P/B)10.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio22.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$543.33Price Target Upside22.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMurphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
How the Company Makes MoneyMurphy USA generates revenue through the sale of retail fuel and convenience merchandise. The majority of the company's income comes from fuel sales, as it sells millions of gallons of gasoline annually to consumers across its extensive network of stations. Additionally, Murphy USA benefits from the sale of convenience store items, which includes snacks, drinks, and other everyday necessities. The company's strategic placement near Walmart stores helps attract a steady flow of traffic, enhancing its sales opportunities. Furthermore, Murphy USA may engage in partnerships and promotional activities with suppliers and brands to drive additional revenue and customer engagement.
Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Murphy USA demonstrates strong operational efficiency and profitability with solid margins and return on equity. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and declining revenue and free cash flow, which could impact future financial flexibility. While the operating cash flow remains healthy, the high debt levels necessitate careful financial management to sustain growth and profitability.Income Statement
Murphy USA shows a solid gross profit margin of 28.54% in TTM, demonstrating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin at 2.48% suggests room for improvement in profitability. Revenue has decreased by 5.96% from the previous year, indicating a slowdown in growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.67% and 4.70% respectively, reflecting stable operating performance despite revenue challenges.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.79, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk if revenues decline. Return on equity is robust at 59.81%, showcasing strong profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio of 18.50% shows limited equity financing, suggesting potential vulnerability to financial stress.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has decreased by 40.11% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.19, indicating efficient cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.53, reflecting constraints in free cash flow relative to profitability.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B | 11.26B | Gross Profit |
| 2.31B | 20.51B | 2.40B | 1.85B | 1.44B | EBIT |
| 742.90M | 826.00M | 968.40M | 604.00M | 559.00M | EBITDA |
| 999.90M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M | 722.70M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M | 386.10M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M | 163.60M | Total Assets |
| 4.69B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B | 2.69B | Total Debt |
| 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.25B | 2.22B | 1.00B | Net Debt |
| 2.32B | 2.15B | 2.19B | 1.97B | 838.80M | Total Liabilities |
| 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B | 1.90B | Stockholders Equity |
| 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M | 784.10M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M | 333.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M | 563.70M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M | -224.30M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M | -456.10M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Negative
442.97
Price Trends
472.50
Negative
478.29
Negative
493.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.39
Positive
42.86
Neutral
37.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 442.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 475.65, below the 50-day MA of 472.50, and below the 200-day MA of 493.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $18.25B | 48.45 | 101.78% | ― | 6.40% | 891.13% | |
74 Outperform | $16.93B | 31.78 | 16.82% | 0.42% | 6.56% | 14.06% | |
71 Outperform | $3.00B | 7.88 | 21.14% | 1.02% | -3.67% | -14.66% | |
66 Neutral | $9.06B | 19.34 | 65.24% | 0.41% | -6.43% | -0.81% | |
62 Neutral | $6.97B | 11.36 | 2.77% | 3.91% | 2.66% | -22.00% | |
60 Neutral | $566.36M | 208.82 | 2.45% | 2.41% | -9.67% | -89.84% | |
46 Neutral | $2.06B | 59.62 | -23.45% | 2.93% | -9.34% | -852.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MUSA
Murphy USA
442.97
3.76
0.86%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
31.31
-37.26
-54.34%
CASY
Casey's General
450.43
114.61
34.13%
CHWY
Chewy
43.57
27.19
166.00%
ARKO
ARKO Corp
4.73
-0.77
-14.00%
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
42.39
-9.62
-18.50%
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -12.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While the company saw improvements in fuel margins, loyalty program growth, and new store performance, it faced challenges with a decline in same-store gallons, lower PS&W contributions, and pressures on inside store sales due to temporal factors.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Fuel Margins Improvement
Retail margins were $0.02 per gallon higher in the first quarter versus the prior year, partly due to a flatter price environment. Retail margins in April were over $0.28 per gallon, $0.03 higher than the previous year.
New Store Performance
The 2022 and 2023 build classes outperformed the fleet average by nearly 20% in gallons and 40% in merchandising margin, with EBITDA 18% higher than the chain average.
Loyalty Program Growth
Murphy Drive Rewards and QuickChek Rewards loyalty programs saw membership growth of 11% and 30%, respectively, in the first quarter.
Food and Beverage Sales Growth
Food and beverage at QuickChek saw sandwich unit growth of 8% and increased breakfast traffic, resulting in total food and beverage sales being up nearly 1% in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Same-Store Gallons
Same-store gallons declined by 4.2%, impacted by non-repeating leap year and storms, which together accounted for almost half of the decline.
Challenges in Product Supply Margin
The oversupplied environment resulted in lower Product Supply & Wholesale (PS&W) contribution year-over-year, with the cycle expected to remain long and loose until the supply-demand balance returns in the second half of 2025.
Pressure on Inside Store Sales
Temporal factors and not repeating a $1 billion jackpot affected merchandise sales, with a 30 basis point headwind in Q1.
Company Guidance
During the Murphy USA First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and insights into its performance and strategic positioning. Murphy USA reported a 4.2% decline in same-store gallons, with temporal factors such as the non-repeating leap year and Easter in March impacting same-store gallons by 1.5% and additional storm-related store closures affecting another 50 basis points. Despite these challenges, retail margins increased by $0.02 per gallon compared to the previous year. Merchandise sales faced a 30 basis point headwind due to the absence of a $1 billion jackpot from the first quarter of 2024, yet categories like candy saw a 15% sales increase. The company also highlighted strong performance in the nicotine category, with noncombustible same-store sales up over 7% and same-store margin growth of 15%. Additionally, Murphy USA added eight new stores during the quarter and emphasized robust construction activity with 18 new stores and 20 raise and rebuilds in progress. The company maintained a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0 and reported cash flow from operations of $129 million, with $88 million in capital expenditures. Overall, Murphy USA continues to focus on its structural advantages and value-driven business model to navigate the current economic environment.Murphy USA Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesDividends
Murphy USA Appoints David C. Haley to Board
Positive
May 1, 2025
On May 1, 2025, Murphy USA announced the appointment of David C. Haley to its Board of Directors, where he will serve on the Nominating and Governance Committee and the Audit Committee as a Class II Director until 2027. Additionally, Murphy USA declared a 2% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, setting it at $0.50 per share, payable on June 2, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 12, 2025.
Spark’s Take on MUSA Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MUSA is a Neutral.
Murphy USA’s overall stock score of 66 reflects solid operational efficiency and strategic initiatives in place for growth. However, challenges such as high leverage, declining revenue, and mixed earnings call results temper the outlook. The positive momentum from recent corporate events and moderate technical indicators suggest potential for future performance improvements.
To see Spark’s full report on MUSA stock, click here.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Murphy USA Highlights Strategic Initiatives at Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 3, 2025
On March 3, 2025, Murphy USA Inc. presented at the Raymond James 2025 Institutional Investors Conference, highlighting its strategic initiatives and financial performance. The company emphasized its transformational investments, which have enhanced its competitiveness and shareholder value. Murphy USA’s strategies include organic growth, merchandise diversification, and cost leadership, supported by a strong relationship with Walmart and a focus on digital transformation. The company has demonstrated resilience in volatile market conditions, maintaining market share and optimizing fuel pricing strategies, which have contributed to significant volume gains and enhanced customer loyalty.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.