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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$524.00
▼(-3.73% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals: strong cash generation and improving TTM revenue are offset by very thin margins and a leveraged balance sheet. Technicals add near-term pressure (downtrend with negative MACD and price below key moving averages), while valuation is reasonable and the latest earnings call was generally constructive but paired with conservative guidance and notable operating headwinds.
Positive Factors
Revenue Recovery
The return to meaningful top-line growth indicates improved demand and operating momentum after several declining years. If sustained, stronger revenue provides a broader base for fixed-cost absorption, supports store-level investment, and can reinforce Murphy USA’s competitive position.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure leaves less financial flexibility for a low-margin retailer if earnings weaken or operating conditions become less favorable. Leverage can also constrain investment and shareholder-return choices while increasing the importance of maintaining reliable cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Recovery
The return to meaningful top-line growth indicates improved demand and operating momentum after several declining years. If sustained, stronger revenue provides a broader base for fixed-cost absorption, supports store-level investment, and can reinforce Murphy USA’s competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Murphy USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.40B
Dividend Yield0.5%
Average Volume (3M)291.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.03
Revenue Growth10.27%
EPS Growth35.33%
CountryUS
Employees16,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)33.14
Shares Outstanding18,380,346
10 Day Avg. Volume282,848
30 Day Avg. Volume291,498
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-45.00
Price to Book (P/B)12.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio20.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$613.86Price Target Upside12.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)34.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.02B
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy USA Inc. specializes in providing retail gasoline and a variety of convenience store items. It manages a network of retail outlets operating under its well-known banners: Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek. By December 31, 2021, its ...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy USA primarily makes money through (1) retail fuel sales and (2) inside-store merchandise sales, with additional contribution from other in-store programs and services where applicable.
1) Retail fuel sales (motor fuel): The company sells g...
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive tone: management emphasized strong second-quarter results, durable fuel margin dynamics, a clear controllables advantage in fuel supply, accelerating loyalty metrics, nicotine tailwinds, and early signs of QuickChek stabilization. Headwinds include a reduced NTI cadence (organic ~45), persistent supply uncertainty tied to geopolitics, consumer wallet pressure impacting some merchandise categories (lottery, beer), and near-term promotional comps in nicotine. Management is guiding conservatively and prioritizing disciplined capital allocation, which frames the negatives as manageable risks rather than structural issues.Positive Updates
Overall Strong Q2 Performance
Reported resilient second-quarter results with same-store fuel volumes +0.5% for the quarter despite volatile pricing and weather; management described performance as encouraging and indicative of model resilience.
Negative Updates
NTI Cadence Lowered to Organic ~45
New-to-industry (NTI) openings expected closer to ~45 for the year (lower end of prior range) absent tuck-in acquisitions; management indicated it takes about 3 years for a new store to reach full ramp, moderating near-term incremental earnings.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overall Strong Q2 Performance
Reported resilient second-quarter results with same-store fuel volumes +0.5% for the quarter despite volatile pricing and weather; management described performance as encouraging and indicative of model resilience.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management described the 2026 outlook as intentionally conservative: organic NTI openings are expected closer to ~45 new stores (with ~10 R&R projects), CapEx is tracking to the high end of the range as some 2027 builds are pulled forward and lifecycle/land‑bank investments are accelerated, and share repurchases remain a priority; same‑store fuel gallons guidance is down 1% to down 3% for the year (Q2 same‑store gallons +0.5%; May +1.6%; last half of May >+2%; July weather‑impacted; August ≈+1.5% through five days). Management is modeling retail fuel margins conservatively at about $0.35 per gallon in the back half (opening August margins in the high‑30s cents), noted controllables returned ~+$0.07 this quarter versus ~$0.025 last year, said merchandise should finish in the guided range but toward the low end given consumer wallet pressure and winter weather impacts, called nicotine a H2 tailwind despite a tough Q3 Zyn lap, and reminded investors new stores take roughly three years to reach full run‑rate profitability.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.48B | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.56B | 970.70M | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 1.00B | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M |
| Net Income | 617.20M | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.08B | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.40M | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M |
| Total Debt | 2.74B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.30B | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 782.70M | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 541.50M | 374.30M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 985.30M | 813.90M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -431.50M | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -432.50M | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Negative
544.31
Price Trends
570.27
Negative
560.30
Negative
491.77
Positive
Market Momentum
-16.36
Positive
37.86
Neutral
22.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 544.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 545.01, below the 50-day MA of 570.27, and above the 200-day MA of 491.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -16.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $27.98B | 39.22 | 18.73% | 0.31% | 10.16% | 30.86% | |
73 Outperform | $48.70B | 20.00 | -80.35% | ― | 5.74% | -1.73% | |
69 Neutral | $71.10B | 27.73 | -232.45% | ― | 8.47% | 12.39% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $9.40B | 15.43 | 94.56% | 0.50% | 10.27% | 35.33% | |
49 Neutral | $548.59M | 60.15 | 3.40% | 2.45% | -2.05% | -1.61% | |
45 Neutral | $2.67B | 31.71 | 3.79% | 2.26% | -1.30% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Murphy USA
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31.29%
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Murphy USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Appoints New Principal Accounting Officer Shah
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Murphy USA’s Board of Directors appointed Anish K. Shah as Vice President Controller, effective September 1, 2026, and designated him as the company’s principal accounting officer, replacing Senior Vice President, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.