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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$546.00
▲(0.31% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is driven mainly by solid operating performance and improving free cash flow, tempered by a highly leveraged balance sheet that raises risk. Technical signals point to soft near-term momentum, while valuation is reasonable but not strongly supported by income. Earnings-call commentary is constructive on expansion and cost control, but guidance and ongoing QuickChek/fuel-margin pressures cap upside.
Positive Factors
Store Expansion Pipeline
A substantial development pipeline supports continued unit growth and broader market coverage over the next several years. Management’s ability to sustain roughly 50 openings annually can expand the earnings base, while strong store economics improve the potential returns on that investment.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and a relatively small equity cushion reduce financial flexibility if fuel margins, demand, or store performance weaken. Debt obligations can also compete with expansion and shareholder-return priorities, making operating volatility more consequential for the company’s financial resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Store Expansion Pipeline
A substantial development pipeline supports continued unit growth and broader market coverage over the next several years. Management’s ability to sustain roughly 50 openings annually can expand the earnings base, while strong store economics improve the potential returns on that investment.
Read all positive factors
Murphy USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Separates revenue across fuel, merchandise, and other business lines, revealing the main drivers of sales, customer spending patterns, and exposure to changes in fuel prices or retail demand.
Separates revenue across fuel, merchandise, and other business lines, revealing the main drivers of sales, customer spending patterns, and exposure to changes in fuel prices or retail demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMurphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.83B
Dividend Yield0.48%
Average Volume (3M)228.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)-0.04
Revenue Growth20.20%
EPS Growth49.73%
CountryUS
Employees16,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)35.96
Shares Outstanding18,380,346
10 Day Avg. Volume246,487
30 Day Avg. Volume228,985
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-45.00
Price to Book (P/B)12.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio20.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$605.80Price Target Upside11.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)34.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.75B
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy USA Inc. specializes in providing retail gasoline and a variety of convenience store items. It manages a network of retail outlets operating under its well-known banners: Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek. Established in 1996, the c...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy USA makes money primarily from (1) retail fuel sales and (2) in-store convenience merchandise sales, with additional contribution from other store-level revenue sources.
1) Retail fuel revenue and margin
- What it sells: gasoline and diese...
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management highlighted a strong store pipeline, resilient fuel and merchandise demand, market-share gains, cost control, customer value positioning, and opportunities from fuel-supply optionality, nicotine, legal vape, and new store formats. These positives were tempered by expected same-store fuel volume declines, margin pressure from rising and volatile prices, competitive pressure in selected markets, continued QuickChek challenges, and weakness in beer and lottery.Positive Updates
Store Pipeline Supports Continued Expansion
Murphy USA has opened 18 stores year to date, has 55 under construction, and plans to start 15 to 20 additional stores between now and the end of January. Full-year opening guidance remains around 45 to 50 stores, and management believes the pipeline can support approximately 50 openings annually in 2027 and potentially more by 2028.
Negative Updates
Fuel Volume Guidance Still Calls for a Decline
Despite flat year-to-date volumes and October volumes at 100% of the prior year, same-store fuel volume guidance remains -1% to -3%, with tougher comparisons expected in November and December.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Store Pipeline Supports Continued Expansion
Murphy USA has opened 18 stores year to date, has 55 under construction, and plans to start 15 to 20 additional stores between now and the end of January. Full-year opening guidance remains around 45 to 50 stores, and management believes the pipeline can support approximately 50 openings annually in 2027 and potentially more by 2028.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Murphy USA said its fuel volume guidance remains -1% to -3%; it has 18 stores open year to date, 55 under construction, and a firm plan to start 15 to 20 between now and the end of January, with guidance still holding at “around that 45 to 50, probably a look. Obviously, a little bit better than 45, we hope.” The company said it has built its pipeline to carry out 50 stores a year for this year and next year, and maybe even do better than that by the time we get to 2028; it expects the pipeline to become more ratable by 2028. In a normalized environment, it expects to earn 2 to 3¢ from the controllable fuel business, while in a tight supply environment it would expect product supply and wholesale to earn over the $0.02 to $0.03. The company expects to end the year even below its very low guidance, expects pressures at QuickChek to continue to persist in the near term as reflected in full-year guidance, and said lingering impacts could continue well into 2027.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
51
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 23.26B | 19.38B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B |
| Gross Profit | 2.00B | 970.70M | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.28B | 1.00B | 996.70M | 1.06B | 1.19B | 819.40M |
| Net Income | 663.30M | 470.60M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.18B | 4.73B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 196.00M | 28.90M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M |
| Total Debt | 2.75B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.39B | 4.10B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 793.80M | 623.50M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 667.50M | 374.30M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 813.90M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -501.00M | -436.00M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -528.60M | -396.00M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Positive
544.31
Price Trends
525.02
Positive
552.20
Negative
515.78
Positive
Market Momentum
2.33
Negative
52.41
Neutral
50.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 544.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 530.37, above the 50-day MA of 525.02, and above the 200-day MA of 515.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $71.29B | 26.87 | -188.24% | ― | 8.73% | 12.85% | |
67 Neutral | $51.02B | 20.31 | -90.08% | ― | 7.39% | 5.02% | |
64 Neutral | $25.14B | 32.58 | 19.68% | 0.36% | 13.78% | 33.28% | |
62 Neutral | $9.83B | 14.88 | 92.81% | 0.48% | 20.20% | 49.73% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
49 Neutral | $425.18M | 46.62 | 3.40% | 3.17% | -2.05% | -1.61% | |
45 Neutral | $2.72B | 32.38 | 3.79% | 2.22% | -1.30% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Murphy USA
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Murphy USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Murphy USA Appoints New Principal Accounting Officer Shah
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Murphy USA’s Board of Directors appointed Anish K. Shah as Vice President Controller, effective September 1, 2026, and designated him as the company’s principal accounting officer, replacing Senior Vice President, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.