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Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
NYSE:MUSA
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Murphy USA
(NYSE:MUSA)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$400.00
▲(6.79% Upside)
Murphy USA's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, such as improved fuel margins and operational efficiencies. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate limited upside potential. The company's reliance on debt and challenges in fuel volumes and merchandise contribution also weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiencies
Operational efficiencies reduce costs and enhance profitability, allowing Murphy USA to maintain competitive pricing and improve margins, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.
New Store Pipeline
Expanding the store network increases market presence and potential revenue streams, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning in the retail fuel market.
Improved Retail Fuel Margins
Improved fuel margins enhance profitability, providing a buffer against volume declines and enabling reinvestment into growth initiatives, crucial for sustained financial health.
Negative Factors
Decline in Fuel Volumes
Declining fuel volumes can impact revenue and profitability, posing a challenge to maintaining growth and market share in a competitive industry.
Merchandise Contribution Challenges
Challenges in merchandise contribution, especially in key categories, can hinder overall revenue growth and affect the company's ability to diversify income streams.
QuickChek Performance Under Pressure
Performance issues in QuickChek stores due to competitive pressures and cost inflation can strain profitability and limit growth potential in the non-fuel segment.
Murphy USA (MUSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.19B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)290.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-7.95%
EPS Growth-2.60%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.36
Shares Outstanding19,292,355
10 Day Avg. Volume274,577
30 Day Avg. Volume290,530
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.69
Price to Book (P/B)12.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.51
P/FCF Ratio26.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$419.40Price Target Upside11.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMurphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
How the Company Makes MoneyMurphy USA generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise. The company's key revenue streams include retail gasoline sales, which account for the largest portion of its earnings, and in-store sales from convenience items. The company has established partnerships with various fuel suppliers to ensure a steady supply of gasoline at competitive prices, allowing it to maintain attractive pricing for customers. Additionally, Murphy USA benefits from its loyalty programs and credit card partnerships, which encourage repeat business and drive sales. The company's strategic location of its gas stations, often near major highways and densely populated areas, also contributes to higher foot traffic and increased sales volume, further solidifying its revenue model.
Murphy USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted resilience in retail fuel margins and digital loyalty growth, alongside operational efficiencies and an optimistic new store pipeline. However, challenges remain with declining fuel volumes, merchandise contribution pressures, and QuickChek performance issues.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Digital Loyalty Growth
Murphy USA reported a 31% increase in new loyalty enrollments and an 11% increase in merchandise transactions. The revamped QuickChek loyalty program saw mobile orders double since relaunch, with 35% of in-store pickup items including additional sales.
Improved Retail Fuel Margins
Retail fuel margins showed resilience, with an 80 basis point improvement year-to-date, and an additional 13 basis points from lower credit card fees. This indicates stronger profitability despite lower fuel volumes.
Operational Efficiencies
There were improvements in overtime, labor rates, loss prevention, and maintenance costs, complemented by home office efficiencies that drove G&A lower.
New Store Pipeline
Murphy USA is poised to deliver 50 new stores over the next 12 months, with 40 new stores and 8 raze-and-rebuilds currently under construction.
Negative Updates
Decline in Fuel Volumes
Same-store fuel volumes were down 3.2%, with first half volumes down 3% on an average per store month basis. The second half outlook suggests volumes could fall slightly below the low end of the annual guided range.
Merchandise Contribution Challenges
Merchandise contribution margin is expected to be within but toward the low end of the guided range of $855 million to $875 million, impacted by slow performance in cigarettes and lottery categories.
QuickChek Performance Under Pressure
Older nonfuel QuickChek stores have been impacted by QSR value wars, with food and beverage margins hampered by cost inflation and persistent weakness in Northeast traffic.
Company Guidance
During the Murphy USA Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed updates on various performance metrics and guidance for the year. Key highlights included a 3.2% decline in same-store fuel volumes for Q2, although July volumes rebounded to match prior-year levels. The company projected that second-half fuel volumes might slightly fall below the annual guided range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month. While cigarette volumes remained pressured, the growth in noncombustible nicotine categories offset this decline. Retail fuel margins improved by 80 basis points year-to-date, supported by an additional 13 basis points from lower credit card fees. Merchandise contribution at Murphy USA stores was up 8.9% when excluding cigarettes and lottery, despite overall pressures in those categories. The company also achieved significant operational efficiencies, with store operating expenses and SG&A trending below the low end of guided ranges. Capital expenditures are expected to remain within the guided range of $450 million to $500 million, with robust store growth plans including 40 new stores and 8 raze-and-rebuilds under construction. The effective tax rate for the first half was 22%, with full-year expectations at or slightly below the low end of the 24% to 26% guidance range. Murphy USA reaffirmed its commitment to its 50-50 capital allocation strategy, including continued share repurchases as a priority.Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Murphy USA shows strong profitability and cash generation, with stable profit margins and efficient operational management. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and a reliance on debt financing, which poses financial risks if leverage becomes unsustainable.Income Statement
Murphy USA demonstrates solid profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of around 10% across the periods and a healthy net profit margin of approximately 2-3%. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining revenue growth, as evidenced by a negative revenue growth rate of -3.77% from 2024 to the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting efficient operational management.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which has increased over time. Although the return on equity (ROE) is strong at around 75.92% in the TTM period, the equity ratio is low, at approximately 13.98%, pointing to potential financial risk if leverage becomes unsustainable.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Murphy USA maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of about 1.26 in the TTM period, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is concerning, with a significant decline from 2024 to the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting a need to manage capital expenditures more effectively.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.48B | 20.24B | 21.53B | 23.45B | 17.36B | 11.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.97B | 2.31B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 1.85B | 1.44B |
| EBITDA | 996.40M | 996.70M | 1.07B | 1.19B | 820.30M | 722.70M |
| Net Income | 490.50M | 502.50M | 556.80M | 672.90M | 396.90M | 386.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.62B | 4.54B | 4.34B | 4.12B | 4.05B | 2.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.10M | 47.00M | 124.90M | 78.40M | 256.40M | 163.60M |
| Total Debt | 2.59B | 2.37B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.24B | 1.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.98B | 3.70B | 3.51B | 3.48B | 3.24B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 646.10M | 840.10M | 828.90M | 640.70M | 807.20M | 784.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 364.70M | 389.50M | 448.40M | 689.40M | 462.70M | 333.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 834.40M | 847.60M | 784.00M | 994.70M | 737.40M | 563.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -460.70M | -445.80M | -323.60M | -319.30M | -914.20M | -224.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -399.40M | -472.60M | -403.10M | -871.30M | 269.60M | -456.10M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Negative
374.55
Price Trends
384.29
Negative
396.47
Negative
434.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.32
Positive
44.75
Neutral
39.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 374.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 382.24, below the 50-day MA of 384.29, and below the 200-day MA of 434.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.
Murphy USA Risk Analysis
Murphy USA disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Murphy USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Murphy USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $20.38B | 35.19 | 17.10% | 0.38% | 8.74% | 13.37% | |
68 Neutral | $67.02B | 27.59 | ― | ― | 2.43% | -3.34% | |
65 Neutral | $7.19B | 15.42 | 67.31% | 0.53% | -7.95% | -2.60% | |
63 Neutral | $18.33B | 22.70 | 17.05% | 3.08% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $85.67B | 36.11 | ― | ― | 5.15% | 5.33% | |
41 Neutral | $3.32B | -8.77 | -24.78% | 1.78% | -22.50% | -35219.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MUSA
Murphy USA
374.55
-95.01
-20.23%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.