Altria Group (MO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $99.89B
• Dividend Yield: 6.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: -1.03%
• EPS Growth: 25.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,654
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 1.23
• Shares Outstanding: 1,684,451,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,494,339
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,932,151
• PEG Ratio: -1.13
• Price to Book (P/B): -28.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $56.86
• Price Target Upside: -4.82% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Altria's stock shows strong financial performance through profitability and cash flow generation, but faces risks due to a highly leveraged balance sheet. Technical indicators depict strong momentum, though caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. Valuation metrics are favorable, highlighting potential undervaluation and attractive dividends. The earnings call presented both growth opportunities and market challenges, leading to a balanced outlook with significant risks and potential returns.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Altria reported 1Q25 adjusted EPS of $1.23, +6% YoY on a comparable basis.

Shareholder Returns

Altria's management is committed to shareholder returns through a progressive dividend policy and buybacks.

Strategic Initiatives

Altria's Optimize & Innovate Initiative and new Administration tailwinds could support continued upward stock price movement.

Negative Factors

Cigarette Volume Decline

MO's Q1 cigarette volumes were down sharply, declining more than expected and Marlboro’s retail share also declined.

Illicit Trade Pressures

The widespread availability of illicit disposable e-vapor products represents more than 60% of the e-vapor category and has given pause to the achievability of MO’s near-term smoke-free volume and revenue goals.

Product Concentration

The business model is too concentrated around smokeable products, which will result in slower progression towards a smoke-free business.

Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches. It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Altria Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of tobacco products, including cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. The smokeable products segment, which includes the iconic Marlboro brand, is the largest contributor to Altria's revenue. In addition to traditional tobacco products, Altria has diversified its portfolio by investing in alternative products such as heated tobacco and vaping devices. The company also earns revenue from its wine segment, although this represents a smaller portion of its overall income. Altria's investments in companies like Cronos Group and Juul Labs are strategic moves to capitalize on emerging markets in cannabis and vaping, respectively, which could become significant revenue streams in the future.

Altria Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Altria Group demonstrates strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin and operational efficiency. However, the balance sheet's negative equity signals high financial risk. Cash flow generation is robust, indicating strong liquidity. Overall, the company shows solid profitability and cash flow metrics but is constrained by its leveraged financial position.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of approximately 71.8% for the TTM, which is strong. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 48.7% for the TTM compared to 55.1% in the previous year, indicating reduced profitability. Revenue growth over the past year was modest at 2.65%, reflecting slow growth. The EBIT margin for the TTM is 49.3%, exhibiting strong operational efficiency. Overall, the company maintains solid profitability metrics, albeit with slight declines in net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating that liabilities exceed assets. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, which signals high financial risk. Despite this, the company has managed a stable asset base over the years. The equity ratio is negative, highlighting significant leverage and potential financial instability. The company faces high financial risk due to its leveraged position.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement exhibits strong free cash flow generation with a TTM free cash flow of $8.45 billion. The free cash flow growth rate is slightly negative, showing a decrease from the previous year. Operating cash flow is robust, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.84, demonstrating effective cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.83, indicating a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. Overall, the company has strong cash flow metrics with good liquidity.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
20.99B	20.44B	20.50B	20.69B	21.11B	20.84B
	Gross Profit
15.08B	14.37B	14.28B	14.25B	13.99B	13.02B
	EBIT
10.36B	11.24B	11.55B	8.53B	11.56B	10.87B
	EBITDA
14.03B	15.07B	12.35B	12.53B	12.16B	11.75B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
10.21B	11.26B	8.13B	5.76B	2.48B	4.47B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.73B	3.13B	3.69B	4.03B	4.54B	4.95B
	Total Assets
35.76B	35.18B	38.57B	36.95B	39.52B	47.41B
	Total Debt
26.06B	24.93B	26.23B	26.68B	28.04B	29.47B
	Net Debt
21.33B	21.80B	22.55B	22.65B	23.50B	24.53B
	Total Liabilities
39.22B	37.37B	42.06B	40.88B	41.13B	44.49B
	Stockholders Equity
-3.51B	-2.24B	-3.54B	-3.97B	-1.61B	2.84B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
8.45B	8.61B	9.09B	8.05B	8.24B	8.15B
	Operating Cash Flow
8.60B	8.75B	9.29B	8.26B	8.40B	8.38B
	Investing Cash Flow
-184.00M	2.17B	-1.28B	782.00M	1.21B	-143.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.31B	-11.49B	-8.37B	-9.54B	-10.03B	-5.40B

Altria Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 59.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.03, above the 50-day MA of 58.09, and above the 200-day MA of 53.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MO.

Altria Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PM	74 Outperform	$272.75B	36.01	-37142.11%	3.05%	6.83%	-4.85%
MO	73 Outperform	$99.89B	9.92	-503.31%	6.81%	-1.03%	25.20%
UVV	70 Outperform	$1.47B	11.83	8.79%	5.53%	12.88%	-5.64%
TPB	68 Neutral	$1.29B	31.69	27.53%	0.39%	3.17%	-2.23%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.82B	14.56	4.78%	173.92%	3.50%	2.20%
RLX	64 Neutral	$2.45B	27.72	4.07%	0.40%	75.72%	-6.45%
BTI	61 Neutral	$98.90B	25.89	5.87%	6.59%	-2.51%	―

Altria Group Corporate Events

Altria Group’s Shareholders Approve 2025 Incentive Plans

Altria Group announced the retirement of Steven D’Ambrosia as Vice President and Controller effective July 31, 2025, and the election of Katie F. Patterson to the role, effective August 1, 2025. Patterson, who has been with Altria since 2013, will receive a salary and incentives consistent with her new position. Additionally, during its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 15, 2025, Altria’s shareholders approved the 2025 Performance Incentive Plan and the 2025 Stock Compensation Plan for Non-Employee Directors, which are designed to provide annual and long-term incentives to eligible employees and directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Sell with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.