Want to see MERC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Mercer International
(NASDAQ:MERC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$0.13
▼(-68.84% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/23/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary provides some offset via cost-program progress and growth in mass timber, but near-term headwinds and liquidity/covenant pressures remain significant, and valuation signals are not supportive due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Mass Timber Growth
Rapid mass timber growth and a substantial backlog provide Mercer with a developing business beyond cyclical pulp and lumber markets. The high hyperscaler-project mix could support multi-year demand, improve diversification, and create a more durable growth platform through 2027.
Negative Factors
Recapitalization Risk
Advanced recapitalization negotiations and a deferred interest payment demonstrate acute balance-sheet pressure that could reshape ownership, debt obligations, and financial flexibility. Until resolved, the company faces heightened execution and refinancing risk, potentially constraining investment and normal operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Mass Timber Growth
Rapid mass timber growth and a substantial backlog provide Mercer with a developing business beyond cyclical pulp and lumber markets. The high hyperscaler-project mix could support multi-year demand, improve diversification, and create a more durable growth platform through 2027.
Read all positive factors
Mercer International (MERC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.34M
Dividend Yield8.62%
Average Volume (3M)895.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth-4.81%
EPS Growth-372.95%
CountryUS
Employees3,545
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.73
Shares Outstanding67,018,036
10 Day Avg. Volume1,111,978
30 Day Avg. Volume895,167
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-1.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap171.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-23.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$0.38Price Target Upside-12.79% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.93B
Mercer International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mercer International Inc. (MERC) is a global manufacturer primarily engaged in the production and marketing of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp. Its pulp products are distributed internationally, reaching markets in Europe, the United ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mercer primarily makes money by producing commodity forest products and selling them into global markets at prevailing market prices. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Kraft pulp sales: Mercer manufactures bleached kraft pulp (including hardwoo...
Mercer International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call contained a number of operational and commercial positives — notably strong mass timber growth, solid progress on the One Goal One Hundred cost program, regional pulp and lumber price pockets of strength, and proactive strategic work to address liquidity — but these were outweighed by significant near-term headwinds: negative consolidated and segment EBITDA, a $29 million inventory impairment, elevated German fiber and energy costs, production curtailments, covenant/going-concern pressures, and declining liquidity. Management is taking decisive cost, restructuring and financing actions, but material execution and market risks remain before results normalize.Positive Updates
Strong Mass Timber Momentum
Mass timber revenues increased over 25% quarter-over-quarter and production rose ~40% in Q2. Current mass timber backlog is about $151 million, with ~70% of backlog from hyperscaler data center projects, positioning the business as a growth engine into 2027.
Negative Updates
Negative Consolidated and Segment Results
Operating EBITDA was negative $21 million in Q2 (versus positive $8 million in Q1). Consolidated net loss was $76 million in Q2 (−$1.13/share) versus a net loss of $52 million in Q1 (−$0.78/share). Pulp segment EBITDA was negative $13 million and solid wood EBITDA negative $8 million in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Mass Timber Momentum
Mass timber revenues increased over 25% quarter-over-quarter and production rose ~40% in Q2. Current mass timber backlog is about $151 million, with ~70% of backlog from hyperscaler data center projects, positioning the business as a growth engine into 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that near-term headwinds will persist: they expect German pulp fiber costs to remain elevated in Q3 while sawmill costs should moderate and Canadian fiber costs decline (Germany ~+7% QoQ; Canada ~-4% QoQ), and said Q3 cash-flow items should be similar to Q2. They have ~40 days (~42,000 t) of Q3 maintenance/curtailments scheduled (Rosenthal 26 days/22,000 t including 12 days market-related curtailment; Peace River 10 days/~14,000 t; Stendal 4 days/<7,000 t) and plan Celgar down 18 days/~23,000 t in Q4; German mills were strategically reduced ~26,000 t in Q2. Price and volume guidance/benchmarks cited: softwood pulp realizations $682/t (Q1 $696), NBSK China $658/t (-$27 Q), Europe list $1,655/t (+$37 Q), NA list $1,577/t (+$14 Q); hardwood realizations $607/t (from $564) and NA hardwood list $1,495/t (+$157 Q); they expect seasonally weak pulp demand in Q3 but tightening NBSK later in 2026/into 2027. Financially, they noted Q2 operating EBITDA of -$21M (pulp -$13M; solid wood -$8M), consolidated net loss -$76M (-$1.13/sh) including a $29M non‑cash inventory impairment, aggregate liquidity of ~$192M ($79M cash, $113M undrawn revolvers) after a $37M decrease, and that the special committee is pursuing capital‑structure alternatives while One Goal One Hundred remains on track (achieved $30M in 2025 and $24M in H1'26 toward a $100M target by end‑2026).Mercer International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
8
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.86B | 1.87B | 2.04B | 1.99B | 2.28B | 1.80B |
| Gross Profit | -68.42M | -67.63M | 189.36M | -31.86M | 498.20M | 425.52M |
| EBITDA | -300.70M | -236.33M | 193.03M | -9.07M | 560.96M | 462.81M |
| Net Income | -517.45M | -497.89M | -85.14M | -242.06M | 247.04M | 170.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.87B | 2.04B | 2.26B | 2.66B | 2.73B | 2.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.78M | 186.81M | 184.93M | 313.99M | 354.03M | 345.61M |
| Total Debt | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.49B | 1.63B | 1.37B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.97B | 1.97B | 1.83B | 2.03B | 1.89B | 1.66B |
| Stockholders Equity | -97.97M | 68.06M | 429.77M | 635.41M | 838.78M | 694.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -154.18M | -80.00M | 5.89M | -205.33M | 181.92M | 21.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -84.68M | 8.59M | 90.20M | -69.00M | 360.66M | 182.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -58.04M | -81.33M | -66.99M | -199.87M | -424.61M | -187.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 81.44M | 79.81M | -152.78M | 228.62M | 80.90M | -9.50M |
Mercer International Technical Analysis
Negative
0.43
Price Trends
0.33
Negative
0.51
Negative
1.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
21.79
Positive
22.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MERC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.23, above the 50-day MA of 0.33, and below the 200-day MA of 1.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.79 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MERC.
Mercer International Risk Analysis
Mercer International disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mercer International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mercer International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $10.86B | 6.52 | 17.50% | 2.47% | 0.87% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.29B | 17.00 | 7.84% | 5.53% | -7.13% | -64.17% | |
54 Neutral | $311.10M | -6.35 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
49 Neutral | $17.58B | -5.09 | -22.39% | 5.57% | 10.34% | -7165.92% | |
46 Neutral | $2.15M | -0.45 | -2.23% | 0.62% | ― | ― | |
42 Neutral | $9.34M | -0.02 | -638.67% | 8.62% | -4.81% | -372.95% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MERC
Mercer International
0.14
-2.47
-94.67%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
19.29
-0.10
-0.52%
IP
International Paper Co
33.19
-12.73
-27.72%
ITP
IT Tech Packaging
0.13
-0.13
-51.15%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
8.64
-0.29
-3.29%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
32.54
-8.90
-21.48%
Mercer International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Mercer International Enters Advanced Recapitalization Negotiation Talks
Negative
Oct 2, 2026
Mercer International has entered advanced talks between a special committee of independent directors, its advisors and an ad hoc group holding over 75% of its 2028 and 2029 senior notes to negotiate a comprehensive recapitalization and significant...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mercer International secures Canadian support for mill modernization
Positive
Aug 26, 2026
On August 26, 2026, Mercer International Inc. announced that the Government of Canada, through Prairies Economic Development Canada, committed C$20 million (approximately US$14 million) in financial support to its Mercer Peace River Pulp mill in n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.