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Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN)
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Lumen Technologies (LUMN) AI Stock Analysis

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LUMN

Lumen Technologies

(NYSE:LUMN)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(7.00% Upside)
Lumen Technologies' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, which poses significant risks. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provided some positive strategic developments, but financial challenges remain a concern.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnership
This partnership with Palantir enhances Lumen's capabilities in AI and cloud services, potentially driving long-term growth and competitive advantage in deploying AI solutions.
Debt Refinancing
Successful debt refinancing reduces interest expenses and extends maturities, improving financial flexibility and stability over the long term.
Increased Free Cash Flow Guidance
Higher free cash flow guidance indicates improved cash generation ability, supporting future investments and debt reduction strategies.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Ongoing revenue declines in key business segments suggest challenges in maintaining market position and could impact long-term growth prospects.
High Financial Leverage
High leverage and solvency risks limit financial flexibility, potentially constraining strategic initiatives and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates cash constraints, which may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or reduce debt.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLumen Technologies (LUMN) is a global technology company that provides communication and data services primarily to business customers. It operates in sectors such as telecommunications, cloud computing, and managed services. Lumen offers a range of products including high-speed internet, voice services, and network solutions, as well as advanced data analytics and security services, catering to the needs of enterprises looking to enhance their digital transformation efforts.
How the Company Makes MoneyLumen Technologies generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering telecommunications services, including local and long-distance voice services, broadband internet, and data networking solutions. The company earns significant income from its enterprise segment, which serves large businesses with customized solutions for data transport, cloud services, and cybersecurity. Additionally, Lumen has developed partnerships with various technology firms to enhance its service offerings, such as integrating cloud solutions with its network infrastructure. The company also leverages its extensive fiber-optic network to provide high-capacity data transport services, which are crucial for businesses seeking reliable connectivity. Overall, its revenue model is built on a combination of subscription-based services, usage-based billing for data services, and long-term contracts with enterprise clients.

Lumen Technologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative developments. Lumen Technologies highlighted significant achievements such as the successful sale of its consumer business, debt refinancing, increased free cash flow guidance, and strong growth in key metrics. However, the company also faced challenges, including a withdrawal from the RDOF program, declines in certain revenue segments, and negative free cash flow. Overall, the positives, particularly the financial improvements and strategic moves, outweigh the negatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sale of Consumer Fiber-to-Home Business
Lumen Technologies announced the sale of its consumer fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, which is expected to strengthen the balance sheet and reduce annual interest expense by approximately $300 million.
Successful Debt Refinancing
Lumen Technologies refinanced $2 billion in debt, extending maturities to 2033 and reducing the coupon rate by over 3.5%, saving approximately $50 million in annual interest expense.
Increased Free Cash Flow and EBITDA Guidance
Lumen raised its 2025 free cash flow guidance by $500 million and increased its 2025 run rate cost-out target from $250 million to $350 million.
Strong Growth in Key Performance Indicators
Network as a Service (NaaS) saw quarter-over-quarter growth with customers up 35%, total active NaaS ports up 31%, and total active services up 22%.
New PCF Contracts
Lumen signed nearly $500 million of new PCF contracts, bringing the total to just under $9 billion.
Positive Financial Results Despite RDOF Impact
Reported solid financials with revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations despite a $46 million onetime RDOF giveback.
Tax Benefits from Legislation
The reconciliation bill is expected to reduce Lumen's 2025 tax liability by approximately $400 million.
Negative Updates
RDOF Program Withdrawal
Lumen withdrew from the RDOF program, resulting in a $46 million onetime revenue and adjusted EBITDA giveback.
Decline in Business Segment Revenue
Total business revenue declined 3.4% year-over-year, with North American enterprise channels revenue decreasing by 2.4%.
Mass Markets Revenue Decline
Mass Markets segment revenue declined 12.8% year-over-year.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative $209 million in the second quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Lumen Technologies Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, significant guidance and updates were provided. Lumen announced the sale of its consumer fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, which will reduce annual interest expenses by approximately $300 million and decrease CapEx by about $1 billion. The company reported nearly $500 million in new PCF contracts, adding to the existing $8.5 billion, and raised its 2025 free cash flow guidance by $500 million. Lumen also achieved a successful $2 billion bond offering, reducing coupon rates by over 3.5% and saving an additional $50 million annually in interest expenses. The company expects its adjusted EBITDA to hit the high end of the $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion range, despite a $46 million RDOF giveback, and anticipates a $400 million tax refund due to recent tax legislation. Additionally, Lumen is on track to achieve $350 million in run rate cost-out targets for 2025, up from $250 million, and is focused on strategic investments and innovations, including AI infrastructure and Network as a Service (NaaS) offerings.

Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lumen Technologies faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues. The balance sheet shows high leverage and potential solvency risks, while cash flow generation remains a concern. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health and stability.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Lumen Technologies has experienced declining revenue over recent periods, with a negative revenue growth rate of -1.35% in the TTM. The company has struggled with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has also decreased slightly over time, reflecting challenges in maintaining cost efficiency.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity leading to an undefined debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM. This indicates potential solvency issues. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is also concerning, suggesting a high reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate of -7.77% in the TTM. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company generates cash from operations despite net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is low, reflecting limited cash available after capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.69B13.11B14.56B17.48B19.69B20.71B
Gross Profit4.59B6.41B7.41B9.61B11.20B11.78B
EBITDA1.23B4.10B-6.09B3.58B8.52B5.90B
Net Income-1.65B-55.00M-10.30B-1.55B2.03B-1.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets34.29B33.50B34.02B45.58B57.99B59.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.40B1.89B2.23B1.25B354.00M406.00M
Total Debt17.95B19.12B20.26B20.92B29.37B32.22B
Total Liabilities35.46B33.03B33.60B35.14B46.15B48.23B
Stockholders Equity-1.17B464.00M417.00M10.44B11.84B11.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.23B1.10B-940.00M1.72B3.60B2.79B
Operating Cash Flow4.86B4.33B2.16B4.74B6.50B6.52B
Investing Cash Flow-3.50B-2.83B-1.20B5.48B-2.71B-3.56B
Financing Cash Flow-1.60B-1.85B-18.00M-9.31B-3.81B-4.25B

Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.28
Price Trends
50DMA
6.48
Positive
100DMA
5.38
Positive
200DMA
4.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.10
Negative
RSI
75.12
Negative
STOCH
82.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.88, above the 50-day MA of 6.48, and above the 200-day MA of 4.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUMN.

Lumen Technologies Risk Analysis

Lumen Technologies disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumen Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$5.18B11.857.38%5.52%19.25%5.69%
$4.12B7.2727.07%8.58%0.35%19.08%
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
$4.23B-160.43-0.54%46.82%-3.65%-134.04%
$5.06B-341.95-0.27%1.91%3.89%-107.44%
$10.54B-6.50%43.47%
$4.17B-0.81%0.41%-5.62%80.09%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LUMN
Lumen Technologies
10.28
2.80
37.43%
PHI
PLDT
19.38
-3.10
-13.79%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
11.25
1.92
20.58%
TKC
Turkcell Iletisim
5.99
0.14
2.39%
AD
Array Digital Infrastructure
49.12
7.91
19.19%
TDS
Telephone & Data Systems
38.82
10.87
38.89%

Lumen Technologies Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Reprices Credit Facilities to Cut Costs
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced the successful repricing of Level 3 Financing’s $2.4 billion credit facilities, reducing annual interest expenses by $24 million. This move, along with raising $425 million in First Lien Notes to refinance higher coupon debt, is part of Lumen’s strategy to reduce debt, extend maturities, and focus on investments in digital networking services for the AI economy, thereby enhancing its financial flexibility and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Lumen Technologies Appoints Donald Holt as New CAO
Neutral
Sep 15, 2025

On September 9, 2025, Andrea Genschaw resigned as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Lumen Technologies, effective September 23, 2025, to become CFO at another company. Her departure was amicable and aligned with the company’s succession plan. On September 12, 2025, Donald Holt was appointed as her successor, effective the same date. Holt, who has been with the company since 2023, has held various finance roles and will receive a revised compensation package, including salary and incentive increases.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Completes $425M Note Offering
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Level 3 Financing, a subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed an offering of $425 million in additional 7.000% First Lien Notes due 2034. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing higher-interest notes and cover related expenses, potentially improving the company’s financial structure by lowering interest obligations and enhancing its debt profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $4.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Announces $425M Note Offering
Neutral
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced that its subsidiary, Level 3 Financing, plans to offer an additional $425 million of 7.000% First Lien Notes due 2034 in a private offering. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing notes and cover related expenses. Additionally, Lumen expects to amend its New Credit Agreement to establish a new tranche of term loans and make other adjustments, though this is subject to market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $4.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Completes $2 Billion Note Offering
Positive
Aug 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Level 3 Financing, a subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed a $2 billion offering of 7.000% First Lien Notes due 2034. The proceeds were used to redeem existing notes and reduce interest expenses, aligning with Lumen’s strategy to simplify its capital structure, extend maturities, and enhance financial flexibility. This move is expected to strengthen Lumen’s position in delivering high-performance digital network services, crucial for enterprises and public sector organizations in the AI-driven economy.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Sell with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Increases Private Offering to $2 Billion
Neutral
Aug 5, 2025

On August 4, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced that its subsidiary, Level 3 Financing, planned a private offering of $2 billion in First Lien Notes due 2034, an increase from the initially proposed $1.25 billion. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing notes and pay related expenses, impacting the company’s financial structure and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Sell with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies’ Earnings Call Highlights Optimistic Outlook
Aug 2, 2025

Lumen Technologies’ Recent Earnings Call Reveals Optimistic Outlook Amidst Challenges

Lumen Technologies Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 1, 2025

Lumen Technologies, Inc. is a telecommunications company that provides networking services, data transport, and digital solutions, focusing on connecting people, data, and applications securely and efficiently. In the second quarter of 2025, Lumen Technologies reported strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA despite a significant one-time revenue giveback related to the FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund. A notable highlight was the announcement of an agreement to sell its consumer fiber business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, which will allow Lumen to focus more on its enterprise segment and enhance financial flexibility. The company also completed a $2 billion bond offering, extending maturities to 2033 and reducing annual interest expenses by approximately $50 million. Key financial metrics for the quarter included a net loss of $915 million, impacted by a $628 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge, and adjusted EBITDA of $877 million. Despite a decrease in total revenue to $3.092 billion from $3.268 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, Lumen reported an increase in net cash provided by operating activities to $570 million. Looking ahead, Lumen Technologies’ management remains optimistic about future growth, emphasizing the company’s transformation strategy and modernization efforts, which are expected to position it at the high end of its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Reports Q2 2025 Results and Sells Fiber Business
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Lumen Technologies reported its second quarter 2025 results, highlighting strong revenue and Adjusted EBITDA despite a significant net loss due to a non-cash goodwill impairment charge. The company announced the sale of its consumer fiber business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, aiming to sharpen its enterprise focus and improve financial flexibility. Lumen also completed a $2 billion bond offering to extend debt maturities and reduce interest expenses, while increasing its cost-reduction target to support growth reinvestment.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Sell with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025