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Turkcell Iletisim
(NYSE:TKC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-7.75% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
TKC scores positively on fundamentals and valuation: strong operating margins, improving revenue and free-cash-flow trends, and a moderate P/E with a solid dividend. The score is held back by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and macro/FX and 5G-depreciation headwinds noted on the earnings call, with ARPU recovery expected to be more meaningful in 2027.
Positive Factors
Subscriber scale and retention
Turkcell’s expanding subscriber base and higher postpaid mix support recurring service revenue and improve customer quality. Lower churn indicates stronger retention, while 27% mobile ARPU growth shows the network can monetize usage and customer relationships more effectively over time.
Negative Factors
Inflation and FX exposure
Persistent inflation and currency volatility can pressure consumer affordability, operating costs, and reported earnings. Turkcell also has meaningful foreign-currency liabilities, so even with hedging and hard-currency assets, FX movements can continue to create earnings volatility and raise financing sensitivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Subscriber scale and retention
Turkcell’s expanding subscriber base and higher postpaid mix support recurring service revenue and improve customer quality. Lower churn indicates stronger retention, while 27% mobile ARPU growth shows the network can monetize usage and customer relationships more effectively over time.
Read all positive factors
Turkcell Iletisim (TKC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.96B
Dividend Yield4.78%
Average Volume (3M)2.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth16.11%
EPS Growth2.15%
CountryUS
Employees23,795
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)22.76
Shares Outstanding871,641,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,137,703
30 Day Avg. Volume2,222,135
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.48
Price to Book (P/B)33.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio2.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.06
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.67B
Turkcell Iletisim Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. operates as a leading provider of various digital services, extending its reach across Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Northern Cyprus, Germany, and the Netherlands. The company's diverse operations are managed through ...
How the Company Makes Money
Turkcell primarily makes money by selling telecommunications connectivity and related services to consumers and businesses. The main revenue stream is service revenue from mobile subscribers, generated through recurring customer charges (e.g., pos...
Turkcell Iletisim Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: the company achieved real revenue growth and strong margins despite severe macro pressures, delivered robust subscriber gains and notable expansion across strategic growth areas (fibre, FWA, digital business services, data centers, and techfin). Key challenges include persistent high inflation, FX volatility and related reported FX losses, higher depreciation from 5G assets affecting near-term net income, and some segment-level pressures (Financell revenue decline and Paycell margin dilution). Management emphasized disciplined execution, conservative balance-sheet management, and long-term upside from data center and digital services, while indicating some ARPU recovery will materialize more clearly in 2027.Positive Updates
Real Revenue Growth Despite High Inflation
Group revenue of 71.8 billion TRY, up 2.5% year-over-year. Management emphasised this as real growth given inflation of ~32%, and reiterated unchanged guidance despite revising year-end inflation expectation to ~28%.
Negative Updates
Persistent High Inflation and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Inflation remains elevated (~32% during the quarter) and management revised year-end inflation assumption upward to ~28% (from 23%), creating a tougher macro backdrop and uncertainty for consumer demand and pricing dynamics.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Real Revenue Growth Despite High Inflation
Group revenue of 71.8 billion TRY, up 2.5% year-over-year. Management emphasised this as real growth given inflation of ~32%, and reiterated unchanged guidance despite revising year-end inflation expectation to ~28%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Turkcell reaffirmed its full‑year financial guidance despite revising its year‑end inflation assumption to ~28% (from 23%), noting Q2 EBITDA of TL30.0bn and a 41.8% margin that sits in line with full‑year expectations; management reiterated confidence in CapEx guidance (operational CapEx/sales at 25% in Q2 and 23.2% H1, with 81% of operational CapEx to core 5G/fiber) and said TL89bn cash and TL44bn net debt (leverage ~0.4x) fully cover remaining 5G license obligations and maturities over the next four years; 5G license installments were: ~US$605m paid in January, ~US$400m due Dec‑2026 and ~US$400m due May‑2027; Q2 FX exposure included US$4.3bn FX liabilities, US$2.6bn FX assets and US$1.2bn hedges (net short well within the ±US$1.5bn target, 60% of cash in hard currency, 87% of debt in hard currency); management expects ARPU improvement signals in H2 with more material impact into 2027.Turkcell Iletisim Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 203.39B | 241.47B | 166.67B | 107.12B | 134.98B | 108.60B |
| Gross Profit | 54.93B | 68.82B | 41.16B | 22.70B | 17.05B | 22.46B |
| EBITDA | 111.54B | 103.04B | 81.69B | 74.97B | 61.67B | 44.00B |
| Net Income | 15.51B | 17.60B | 23.52B | 12.55B | 9.93B | 7.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 662.05B | 12.07B | 344.28B | 356.74B | 234.99B | 151.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 116.01B | 2.49B | 75.82B | 84.96B | 50.66B | 30.69B |
| Total Debt | 212.76B | 3.69B | 104.34B | 121.40B | 88.74B | 60.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 351.48B | 6.03B | 157.31B | 180.25B | 125.61B | 85.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 310.57B | 6.04B | 186.97B | 176.50B | 109.37B | 65.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.15B | 73.90B | 44.31B | 17.64B | 20.22B | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.56B | 121.62B | 75.01B | 60.24B | 61.04B | 2.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -128.22B | -98.17B | -48.86B | -30.18B | -45.79B | -1.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.70B | -1.66B | -9.78B | 9.77B | 4.89B | -441.64M |
Turkcell Iletisim Technical Analysis
Negative
5.42
Price Trends
5.15
Negative
5.45
Negative
5.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
29.27
Positive
21.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.00, above the 50-day MA of 5.15, and below the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.27 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKC.
Turkcell Iletisim Risk Analysis
Turkcell Iletisim disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Turkcell Iletisim reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Summary of Risk Relating to our American Depositary Shares Q4, 2023
2.
We have two major shareholders whose interests may not be aligned with those of other shareholders. Q4, 2023
3.
Risk Factors Summary Summary of Risks relating to Turkiye Q4, 2023
Turkcell Iletisim Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $9.20B | 10.61 | 17.54% | 7.24% | 13.99% | 29.93% | |
70 Outperform | $5.99B | 12.50 | 9.66% | 2.39% | 33.24% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $3.96B | 10.00 | 7.05% | 4.78% | 16.11% | 2.15% | |
68 Neutral | $13.13B | 19.68 | 21.02% | 5.43% | 29.10% | -29.84% | |
68 Neutral | $5.29B | 122.07 | 4.15% | 12.73% | 14.60% | -94.13% | |
63 Neutral | $36.62B | -71.60 | -0.79% | 3.41% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TKC
Turkcell Iletisim
4.61
-1.33
-22.36%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
12.90
2.30
21.64%
TIMB
TIM
19.17
-2.83
-12.88%
VOD
Vodafone
15.74
4.29
37.42%
TIGO
Millicom International Cellular SA
78.34
31.58
67.53%
VEON
VEON
83.01
32.80
65.33%
Turkcell Iletisim Corporate Events
Turkcell Reshapes Sales Leadership With New Chief Sales Officer
Sep 8, 2026
Turkcell announced on September 8, 2026 that Chief Sales Officer Kadri Özdal resigned from his role, marking a significant leadership change in the company’s commercial organization. The move closes a chapter for a long-serving sales ex...
Turkcell Confirms Ongoing Talks on Potential Stake in Türkiye’nin Otomobili Girişim Grubu
Sep 1, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. addressed media reports that it and the Türkiye Wealth Fund were in talks over acquiring certain shares in Türkiye’nin Otomobili Girişim Grubu San. ve Tic. A.S., an automot...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.