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Invesco Mortgage (IVR) AI Stock Analysis
Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and recent book-value/economic-return volatility, despite a TTM earnings/cash-flow recovery. Technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is mixed: an exceptionally high yield is offset by a negative P/E and sustainability concerns. The earnings call adds modest support via liquidity/hedging strength and a constructive outlook, but does not fully offset the recent drawdown.
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $512.38M
- Dividend Yield
- 28.26%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 3.33M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -92.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.59
- Revenue Growth
- -105.19%
- EPS Growth
- -136.68%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 0
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. functions as a real estate investment trust (REIT), concentrating on acquiring, funding, and overseeing a diverse portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and other assets linked to real estate. Its holdings include both...
How the Company Makes Money
IVR primarily makes money from the net interest income earned on its mortgage-related investment portfolio. It purchases or originates mortgage assets (such as agency MBS and other mortgage credit investments) that generate interest and other cash fl...
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a challenging third-quarter result, with a -11.6% economic return, a 16.1% decline in book value per share, higher leverage and materially wider Agency RMBS spreads. These negatives were balanced by a roughly 6% quarter-to-date economic return, ample liquidity, 99% hedge coverage, stable funding markets, active portfolio repositioning toward specified pools, attractive stated ROEs and a constructive outlook for Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS. Overall, management sounded cautiously constructive, but the significant realized quarterly loss and ongoing market uncertainty kept the tone balanced.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Entering the fourth quarter, management said its outlook for Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS is constructive, with current ROEs for target assets of 18%-20%; it is very comfortable with an Agency TBA allocation at about 8%, while maintaining the majority of its allocation in specified pools, where levered gross returns were in the high teens to 20% ROE, and Agency TBA offered high teens to low 20s ROEs, including an ROE well over 20% for 30-year 6.5% Agency TBA. Management said it is comfortable with the current level of leverage and cash and unencumbered investments, comfortable at higher levels, but not necessarily looking to add assets, and noted that the GSEs still had about $135 billion of capacity under their caps after adding about $45 billion year-to-date and about $15 billion during the third quarter; the dividend will be discussed with the board based on market conditions, current earnings, portfolio composition, available investment opportunities, earnings power, stability, and competitiveness.
Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income and cash flow have improved in the TTM period (strong net margin and solid/free cash flow growth), but balance-sheet risk is a major constraint with very high leverage and relatively thin equity, which can amplify volatility for a mortgage REIT.
Income Statement
68PositiveBalance Sheet
38NegativeCash Flow
59Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 310.47M | 339.70M | 329.27M | 232.42M | -437.55M | 50.33M |
| Gross Profit | 246.06M | 119.84M | 79.09M | 177.51M | -377.60M | 29.25M |
| EBITDA | 284.94M | 321.14M | 310.38M | 222.78M | -331.66M | -79.29M |
| Net Income | 120.08M | 101.29M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 6.48B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.38M | 56.04M | 73.40M | 76.97M | 176.20M | 357.40M |
| Total Debt | 6.21B | 5.62B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.24B | 7.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.25B | 5.68B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 990.32M | 797.54M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -892.87M | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.72B | 691.33M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.42, below the 50-day MA of 6.02, and below the 200-day MA of 6.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksInvesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
NLY61Neutral
MFA56Neutral- IVR53Neutral
AGNC48Neutral
ARR47Neutral
CIM46Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| NLY | 61Neutral | $14.36B | 13.14 | 6.97% | 15.32% | 22.65% | -33.98% |
| MFA | 56Neutral | $671.22M | -28.80 | -0.66% | 21.79% | 19.70% | 13.45% |
| IVR | 53Neutral | $579.34M | -92.00 | -3.25% | 28.26% | -105.19% | -136.68% |
| AGNC | 48Neutral | $10.87B | 126.71 | 0.48% | 16.23% | 151.78% | -96.75% |
| ARR | 47Neutral | $1.80B | -420.00 | -2.19% | 22.86% | -139.97% | -148.81% |
| CIM | 46Neutral | $693.97M | -11.61 | 0.05% | 19.82% | 14.40% | -178.46% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 5.52 | -0.77 | -12.21% | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp. | 8.87 | -0.03 | -0.33% | |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management | 18.93 | 0.05 | 0.25% | |
| ARR | Armour Residential | 12.60 | -1.35 | -9.69% | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | 8.68 | -1.47 | -14.52% | |
| MFA | MFA Financial Inc | 6.61 | -1.02 | -13.39% |
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
Invesco Mortgage Capital Reports Quarterly Loss Amid Volatility
NegativeInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a sharp reversal in performance for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, posting a net loss of $0.92 per common share versus net income of $0.34 in the prior quarter, as book value per share fell 16.1% to $6.74...
Invesco Mortgage Declares October Dividend, Highlights Leverage
PositiveInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a NYSE-listed mortgage REIT focused on agency RMBS, CMBS and associated TBA positions, reported a total investment portfolio of about $8.0 billion as of September 30, 2026, largely concentrated in 30-year fixed-rate age...
Invesco Mortgage Announces Dividend and Preliminary Financials
NeutralOn September 15, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for September 2026, payable on October 15 to stockholders of record as of September 28, with the same date as ex-dividend. The announcement was accompani...
Invesco Mortgage declares August 2026 common stock dividend
PositiveOn August 14, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its common stock for August 2026, payable on September 15 to shareholders of record as of August 25. The announcement underscored the company’s con...
Invesco Mortgage Capital Adds Peter Graham to Board
PositiveOn August 3, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. appointed Peter Graham to its Board of Directors and to the Audit, Compensation, and Nomination and Corporate Governance committees. Graham, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer of Sallie Mae with...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026