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Ingredion
(NYSE:INGR)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(10.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
INGR scores well on valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and has generally good underlying financial quality driven by improved margins and a healthier leverage profile. The score is moderated by weak recent revenue momentum and variable cash-flow consistency, plus a neutral technical picture with the stock still below longer-term moving averages. Earnings-call commentary supports the outlook via reaffirmed EPS guidance and strategic M&A progress, but near-term operational and cost headwinds remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Texture & Healthful Solutions growth
Sustained quarter-to-quarter volume growth in the Texture & Healthful Solutions segment signals durable customer adoption of higher‑value specialty ingredients. Persistent volume and above-market mix support long‑term margin sustainability, pricing power and stronger recurring revenue over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp top-line weakness
A large trailing revenue decline undermines scale economics and increases reliance on specialty mix to sustain margins. If volumes or pricing fail to recover, margin gains may be fragile and earnings durability is at risk, requiring several quarters of improved sales to restore confidence in long‑run profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Texture & Healthful Solutions growth
Sustained quarter-to-quarter volume growth in the Texture & Healthful Solutions segment signals durable customer adoption of higher‑value specialty ingredients. Persistent volume and above-market mix support long‑term margin sustainability, pricing power and stronger recurring revenue over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ingredion Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks sales down by product line or region to show where growth is coming from and how reliant the company is on specific markets or products. For retail investors, this helps spot fast-growing specialty businesses versus mature, commodity-exposed lines and assess diversification, seasonal patterns, and geographic risk exposure.
Breaks sales down by product line or region to show where growth is coming from and how reliant the company is on specific markets or products. For retail investors, this helps spot fast-growing specialty businesses versus mature, commodity-exposed lines and assess diversification, seasonal patterns, and geographic risk exposure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIngredion (INGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.27B
Dividend Yield3.3%
Average Volume (3M)902.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-2.21%
EPS Growth9.29%
CountryUS
Employees11,200
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.54
Shares Outstanding63,059,060
10 Day Avg. Volume599,011
30 Day Avg. Volume902,454
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio13.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.80Price Target Upside12.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)10.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.25B
Ingredion Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ingredion Incorporated, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the global production and sale of starches and sweeteners, catering to a diverse range of industries. The company's operations are strategically organized into four geograp...
How the Company Makes Money
Ingredion makes money by producing ingredient products at scale and selling them to manufacturers, earning revenue primarily from the sale of (1) specialty ingredients (e.g., texturizers, clean-label and functional starches, and other value-added ...
Ingredion Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced call: clear, continuing strength and momentum in Texture & Healthful Solutions, meaningful strategic progress on the Tate & Lyle acquisition, successful launches and partnerships, and improving operations at Argo provide important positives. Offsetting these are significant operational headwinds (Argo disruptions), notable input-cost pressure (tapioca +40% YTD), Mexico transactional FX impacts, and year-to-date declines in operating income. Management reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance and outlined plans to normalize Argo and capture synergies from M&A, but near-term profitability pressure remains.Positive Updates
Quarterly Net Sales and Top-Line Stability
Q2 net sales of $1.85 billion, up 1% year-over-year; year-to-date net sales approximately $3.6 billion, flat versus prior year. Q3 net sales expected to be up low single digits; full-year net sales guidance reaffirmed as flat to up low single digits.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Decline and EPS Pressure
Q2 adjusted operating income $258 million, down 5% year-over-year; reported operating income $188 million. Year-to-date reported operating income $391 million (down 29%) and adjusted operating income $470 million (down 14%). Q2 adjusted diluted EPS declined $0.05 versus prior year; YTD EPS down $0.68.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Net Sales and Top-Line Stability
Q2 net sales of $1.85 billion, up 1% year-over-year; year-to-date net sales approximately $3.6 billion, flat versus prior year. Q3 net sales expected to be up low single digits; full-year net sales guidance reaffirmed as flat to up low single digits.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ingredion reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance with adjusted EPS of $10.30–$10.90 (assuming diluted shares of 63–64 million and completion of $100 million of share repurchases), net sales expected flat to up low single digits, and adjusted operating income down mid-single digits (amended to reflect the sale of the majority stake in Pakistan). Full-year cash from operations is now forecast at $700–$800 million and capital expenditures $450–$490 million (including additional Argo spend); Q3 is expected to see net sales up low single digits and adjusted operating income down mid-single digits with higher sequential corporate costs. By segment, Texture & Healthful Solutions is expected to deliver net sales up mid-single digits and operating income up mid‑ to high‑single digits (T&HS Q2 net sales +5%, volumes +7%), Food & Industrial Ingredients LATAM net sales up low single digits with operating income down low single digits, Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada net sales down low single digits with operating income down 20%–25%, and All Other net sales down 20%–25% with an operating loss of about $15 million. For context, Q2 reported net sales were $1.85 billion (+1%), adjusted operating income $258 million (‑5% YoY), year‑to‑date net sales ≈ $3.6 billion (flat), and YTD adjusted operating income $470 million (‑14%); the company also noted transaction metrics for the pending Tate & Lyle deal of $2.7 billion of revenue addition, $130 million run‑rate synergies by 2030, >15% adjusted EPS accretion in the first full year post‑close and a path to <2.5x net leverage within 18 months. Guidance assumes current tariff levels as of end‑July 2026 and excludes acquisition integration/restructuring and potential impairments.Ingredion Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.20B | 7.22B | 7.43B | 8.16B | 7.95B | 6.89B |
| Gross Profit | 1.76B | 1.83B | 1.79B | 1.75B | 1.49B | 1.33B |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.00M | 542.00M |
| Net Income | 674.00M | 729.00M | 647.00M | 643.00M | 492.00M | 117.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.93B | 7.90B | 7.44B | 7.64B | 7.56B | 7.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 918.00M | 1.03B | 1.01B | 409.00M | 239.00M | 332.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.82B | 1.79B | 2.04B | 2.40B | 2.68B | 2.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.48B | 3.53B | 3.55B | 3.99B | 4.30B | 3.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.42B | 4.34B | 3.86B | 3.59B | 3.19B | 3.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 747.00M | 511.00M | 1.14B | 741.00M | -148.00M | 92.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 900.00M | 944.00M | 1.44B | 1.06B | 152.00M | 392.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -461.00M | -444.00M | -47.00M | -329.00M | -320.00M | -335.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -378.00M | -491.00M | -765.00M | -569.00M | 103.00M | -373.00M |
Ingredion Technical Analysis
Positive
101.45
Price Trends
99.68
Positive
104.37
Positive
107.75
Negative
Market Momentum
0.69
Negative
62.41
Neutral
45.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.73, above the 50-day MA of 99.68, and below the 200-day MA of 107.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INGR.
Ingredion Risk Analysis
Ingredion disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ingredion reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ingredion Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $6.27B | 9.44 | 15.33% | 3.23% | -2.21% | 9.29% | |
69 Neutral | $6.51B | 11.90 | 14.85% | ― | 1.42% | -55.97% | |
68 Neutral | $1.43B | 25.55 | 6.24% | 4.19% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
63 Neutral | $4.14B | 14.04 | 9.40% | ― | 7.16% | 6.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $9.64B | 126.33 | 16.72% | ― | 14.88% | 468.46% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
INGR
Ingredion
103.29
-18.16
-14.96%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
57.80
27.95
93.63%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
84.66
-22.71
-21.15%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
26.58
-20.57
-43.63%
POST
Post Holdings
89.22
-13.22
-12.91%
Ingredion Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Ingredion Advances Tate & Lyle All-Cash Acquisition
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, shareholders of Tate Lyle PLC approved a recommended all-cash acquisition of the company by Ingredion Incorporated, clearing key shareholder votes for a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under UK law. At a court-convened me...
M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ingredion outlines terms of Tate & Lyle acquisition scheme
Neutral
Jul 6, 2026
On July 3, 2026, Tate Lyle PLC published a scheme document detailing the previously announced recommended cash acquisition of its entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital by Ingredion Incorporated, to be implemented via a court-sanct...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ingredion Sells Majority Stake in Rafhan Maize
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Ingredion completed the sale of 51% of the issued share capital of Rafhan Maize Products Co. Ltd. to a purchaser group led by Nishat Hotels and Properties Limited, affiliates of Pakistan’s diversified Nishat Group. Ingredio...
M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ingredion Secures Term Loan to Support Tate & Lyle Acquisition
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Ingredion entered into a $1.475 billion senior unsecured delayed draw term loan facility with a syndicate of lenders led by JPMorgan Chase, structured in two tranches maturing three and five years after funding. The financing is ...
Executive/Board Changes
Ingredion Adds Independent Director Kenneth Escoe to Board
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 7, 2026, Ingredion’s board elected Kenneth Escoe, 51, executive vice president of Specialty Products at Illinois Tool Works Inc., to serve as an independent director for a term beginning July 1, 2026. His election adds senior leaders...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ingredion Announces All-Cash Acquisition Offer for Tate & Lyle
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Ingredion announced a recommended all-cash offer to acquire U.K.-based Tate Lyle PLC, valuing the target’s equity at about £2.7 billion and implying an enterprise value of roughly £3.7 billion, with shareholders o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ingredion Shareholders Reelect Board, Back Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its May 20, 2026 annual meeting, Ingredion stockholders elected all 11 director nominees to one-year terms, reaffirming the current board composition and leadership structure. Shareholders also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation o...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ingredion makes non-binding all-cash bid for Tate & Lyle
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Ingredion announced it had made a non-binding, indicative all-cash proposal to acquire Tate Lyle PLC at 595 pence per share, covering the entire issued and to be issued share capital. The potential terms would allow Tate Lyle to...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ingredion Announces Brazil Plant Closure and Impairment Charges
Negative
May 5, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Ingredion announced it will cease operations at its Cabo, Brazil manufacturing facility as of June 30, 2026, and intends to sell the plant and underlying real estate. The decision reflects a significant restructuring move in its La...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.