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Harley-Davidson
(NYSE:HOG)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating profitability trends and notably weak recent cash flow/FCF. Offsetting factors include meaningful balance-sheet deleveraging, a reasonable valuation with a moderate dividend, and a more constructive near-term outlook after raised 2026 guidance—though tariffs, margins, and regional headwinds keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Deleveraging
Debt reduction from roughly $7.0–$7.2 billion in 2022–2024 to about $2.2 billion TTM, alongside debt-to-equity near 0.7x, materially improves financial resilience. Lower leverage can reduce refinancing pressure and preserve capacity to fund products, dealers and shareholder returns through a demand cycle.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Decline
TTM revenue fell 4.72%, gross margin declined from roughly 37% to 25%, and net margin dropped to about 5% from 12–13%. Persistent top-line contraction and margin compression weaken earnings power, reduce operating leverage and make recovery more dependent on successful pricing, mix and cost actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Deleveraging
Debt reduction from roughly $7.0–$7.2 billion in 2022–2024 to about $2.2 billion TTM, alongside debt-to-equity near 0.7x, materially improves financial resilience. Lower leverage can reduce refinancing pressure and preserve capacity to fund products, dealers and shareholder returns through a demand cycle.
Read all positive factors
Harley-Davidson (HOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.95B
Dividend Yield2.7%
Average Volume (3M)1.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-5.25%
EPS Growth-14.29%
CountryUS
Employees5,500
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.66
Shares Outstanding104,072,510
10 Day Avg. Volume1,654,832
30 Day Avg. Volume1,956,263
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.11Price Target Upside0.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.85B
Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harley-Davidson, Inc., publicly traded under the symbol HOG, is fundamentally a manufacturer and seller of motorcycles. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings, and Financial Servi...
How the Company Makes Money
Harley-Davidson primarily makes money through (1) selling motorcycles and (2) earning revenue from its broader brand ecosystem, including parts, accessories, and apparel, and (3) generating income from financing activities.
Motorcycles (product s...
Harley-Davidson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive picture: HDMC showed clear operational improvement (NA retail growth, healthier dealer inventory, successful new product launches, revenue growth at the Motor Company and raised guidance), while structural and transitional items weighed on consolidated results (large HDFS revenue decline from the capital-light transition, lower consolidated operating income and EPS, tariff exposure, supplier challenges and European weakness). Management raised guidance and reiterated multi-year targets and cost-savings plans, indicating confidence in the recovery path, but near-term cash flow, tariff risk and regional headwinds remain material.Positive Updates
North America Retail Growth
North American retail new motorcycle sales were up 3% year-over-year in Q2 with ~30,000 motorcycles sold; Harley-Davidson reached 32% share of the U.S. 601+cc market.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Earnings Pressure
Consolidated revenue was down 6% in Q2 driven primarily by HDFS moving to a capital-light model. Consolidated operating income fell to $76M from $112M year-over-year and EPS declined to $0.75 from $0.88.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Retail Growth
North American retail new motorcycle sales were up 3% year-over-year in Q2 with ~30,000 motorcycles sold; Harley-Davidson reached 32% share of the U.S. 601+cc market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its 2026 outlook, guiding HDMC retail and wholesale units to 133,500–138,500 (up from 130,000–135,000), with retail and wholesale expected to be largely one-to-one for the year; HDMC operating income is now forecast at $10 million–$50 million (up from a prior range that included a loss), HDFS operating income at $55 million–$70 million (up from $45M–$60M), and LiveWire still expected to lose $70M–$80M. Management reiterated a $75M–$90M tariff cost expectation for the year (incurring $22M in Q2 before recoveries) and noted approximately $20M of tariff/IEEPA recoveries included in results; they also expect domestic dealer profitability to double in 2026. Q2 datapoints supporting the guide included global Q2 retail of ~42,500 (North America ~30,000, up 3%; non‑NA ~13,000, down 5%), Q2 wholesale shipments of 39,200 (up 9% YoY), HDMC Q2 revenue $1.1B (motorcycle $848M, P&A $177M), HDMC gross margin 27.5% (down 108 bps), HDMC adj. EBITDA $115M (10.4% margin), HDFS Q2 revenue $117M and operating income $22M (18.5% margin), HDFS retail originations $940M (up 10%), total finance receivables $2.7B, dealer inventory down 17% YoY (NA down 15%, non‑NA down 24%) with 85% of dealer inventory as 2026 model year (vs <75% a year ago), finished goods at lowest Q2 level since 2021, $1.9B cash on the balance sheet, and 1.3M shares repurchased ($30M) in Q2 (7.9M shares / $158M YTD).Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.11B | 4.47B | 5.19B | 5.84B | 5.76B | 5.34B |
| Gross Profit | 982.56M | 1.35B | 1.81B | 2.18B | 2.13B | 1.90B |
| EBITDA | 350.03M | 664.55M | 708.56M | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 201.82M | 338.74M | 455.36M | 706.59M | 741.41M | 650.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.25B | 8.04B | 11.88B | 12.14B | 11.49B | 11.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.90B | 3.09B | 1.59B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.87B |
| Total Debt | 2.31B | 3.05B | 7.03B | 7.20B | 6.96B | 6.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.13B | 4.89B | 8.72B | 8.89B | 8.59B | 8.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.10B | 3.14B | 3.17B | 3.25B | 2.90B | 2.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -133.07M | 415.24M | 867.27M | 547.48M | 396.79M | 855.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -255.00K | 568.92M | 1.06B | 754.89M | 548.46M | 975.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.60B | 3.78B | -383.33M | -512.30M | -773.01M | -459.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.45B | -3.01B | -572.32M | -174.65M | -201.97M | -1.88B |
Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis
Positive
27.84
Price Trends
26.43
Positive
25.37
Positive
22.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Positive
49.88
Neutral
41.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.57, above the 50-day MA of 26.43, and above the 200-day MA of 22.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.
Harley-Davidson Risk Analysis
Harley-Davidson disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harley-Davidson reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $2.49B | 11.41 | 15.25% | 4.64% | 4.05% | 44.68% | |
61 Neutral | $4.82B | -55.78 | -5.32% | 2.43% | 10.46% | -305.37% | |
61 Neutral | $877.18M | 21.86 | 3.13% | 4.74% | 3.44% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $3.56B | -13.37 | -29.22% | 4.42% | 8.43% | -143.55% | |
56 Neutral | $2.95B | 16.37 | 6.27% | 2.70% | -5.25% | -14.29% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
54 Neutral | $4.01B | 14.89 | 6.06% | 2.81% | 2.40% | 18.91% |
* General Sector Average
HOG
Harley-Davidson
27.18
-2.07
-7.09%
BC
Brunswick
71.95
8.67
13.70%
LCII
LCI Industries
99.11
1.27
1.30%
PII
Polaris
61.38
5.22
9.30%
THO
Thor Industries
74.13
-30.37
-29.06%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
29.73
-3.25
-9.86%
Harley-Davidson Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Harley-Davidson Announces New Chief Legal Officer Appointment
Neutral
Jun 26, 2026
Harley-Davidson announced a leadership transition in its legal and corporate affairs function, stating that effective June 29, 2026, Paul Krause will step down as Chief Legal, Compliance and Corporate Affairs Officer and Corporate Secretary. Kraus...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.