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Hilton Grand Vacations
(NYSE:HGV)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▼(-3.87% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile: strong and improving free cash flow and a recent profitability rebound are outweighed by high leverage and a thinner equity cushion. The latest earnings call was modestly constructive on cash flow, margins, and reiterated EBITDA guidance, but tempered by VPG compression, softer contract-sales outlook, and execution/provision headwinds. Technically, the stock is in a weak intermediate-term trend (below key short- and mid-term moving averages), while valuation appears neutral based on the provided P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong EBITDA-to-FCF conversion provide durable internal funding for operations, debt service, and reinvestment. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity, capital allocation choices (buybacks, paydowns) and cushions cyclical revenue swings.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and thinner equity cushion
Elevated leverage materially limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk, particularly in a cyclical travel sector. A thinner equity base reduces shock-absorption and magnifies downside to returns if revenue or cash flow weaken over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong EBITDA-to-FCF conversion provide durable internal funding for operations, debt service, and reinvestment. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity, capital allocation choices (buybacks, paydowns) and cushions cyclical revenue swings.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)1.53
Revenue Growth5.44%
EPS Growth205.14%
CountryUS
Employees22,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding77,724,144
10 Day Avg. Volume996,974
30 Day Avg. Volume1,171,895
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)3.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio17.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.86Price Target Upside12.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.51B
Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates throu...
How the Company Makes Money
HGV primarily makes money through a combination of (1) selling vacation ownership interests, (2) financing those purchases, and (3) recurring fees for managing resorts and servicing owners.
1) Sale of vacation ownership interests (VOI): A core re...
Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and financial fundamentals remain resilient (tour growth, adjusted EBITDA expansion, strong free cash flow, growing Max membership, and ongoing buybacks), but near-term top-line challenges persist. The primary negatives are a meaningful VPG decline and underperformance in sales execution at several Bluegreen sites, which led to a downgrade in VPG and modestly weaker contract sales guidance for Q3 and the year. Management has outlined corrective actions (leadership changes, training, inventory optimization) and reiterated full-year EBITDA guidance, suggesting confidence in recovery.Positive Updates
Tour Growth and Demand
Generated 239,000 tours in Q2, up 6% year-over-year and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of consolidated tour growth, with strong tour flow across owner and new-buyer channels.
Negative Updates
Contract Sales Decline and VPG Compression
Contract sales declined 3% to $810 million; VPG fell ~9% to approximately $3,400 in Q2. Management lowered full-year VPG outlook to a decline in the low- to mid-single digits (previously expected flat to slightly down), and Q3 VPG is forecast to decline in the high single digits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tour Growth and Demand
Generated 239,000 tours in Q2, up 6% year-over-year and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of consolidated tour growth, with strong tour flow across owner and new-buyer channels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 adjusted EBITDA before deferrals guidance of $1.225–$1.265 billion and said it remains confident in meeting full‑year EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow targets, expecting tour growth for the year to be positive low‑ to mid‑single digits (Q3: low single‑digit), VPG to decline low‑ to mid‑single digits for the year (Q3: high‑single‑digit decline), and contract sales to be flat to down slightly for the year (Q3: down mid‑single digits). For context, Q2 produced $293 million of adjusted EBITDA (23% margin), $180 million of adjusted free cash flow (61% conversion), 239,000 tours (+6% YoY), VPG of ~ $3,400 (down 9% YoY), and contract sales of $810 million (down 3%); the quarter’s provision was ~17% of own contract sales and the company reiterated a mid‑teens provision outlook for the year and a full‑year conversion rate in the lower half of its 55–65% target range. Liquidity and capital return guidance/capacity included $735 million of liquidity ($272 million cash, $463 million revolver), pro‑forma net leverage of ~3.8x, a continued share‑repurchase cadence of roughly $150 million per quarter (Q2 repurchases: $150 million / 3.1M shares; July 1–23 additional $25 million for 488k shares) and $103 million remaining repurchase availability as of July 23.Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.50B | 5.05B | 4.98B | 3.98B | 3.83B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 3.34B | 2.86B | 2.83B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 855.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.29B | 759.00M | 733.00M | 840.00M | 867.00M | 500.00M |
| Net Income | 186.00M | 81.00M | 47.00M | 313.00M | 352.00M | 176.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.23B | 11.54B | 11.44B | 8.69B | 8.00B | 8.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 272.00M | 571.00M | 328.00M | 589.00M | 223.00M | 432.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.85B | 7.35B | 7.02B | 4.59B | 3.85B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.98B | 10.10B | 9.55B | 6.57B | 5.85B | 6.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 1.29B | 1.75B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 1.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 422.00M | 230.00M | 183.00M | 237.00M | 650.00M | 150.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 463.00M | 300.00M | 309.00M | 312.00M | 747.00M | 168.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.00M | -146.00M | -1.57B | -158.00M | -97.00M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -240.00M | -338.00M | 1.16B | 183.00M | -782.00M | 1.64B |
Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis
Negative
48.89
Price Trends
48.80
Negative
48.19
Negative
45.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.04
Negative
44.70
Neutral
54.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.17, above the 50-day MA of 48.80, and above the 200-day MA of 45.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HGV.
Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $10.17B | 22.24 | -174.87% | 1.03% | 6.36% | 21.32% | |
58 Neutral | $10.90B | 26.02 | 16.96% | ― | 3.19% | -8.14% | |
56 Neutral | $5.27B | 34.35 | 49.64% | 6.09% | -4.29% | -43.57% | |
55 Neutral | $3.49B | 20.93 | 14.96% | ― | 5.44% | 205.14% | |
55 Neutral | $6.04B | -13.01 | -12.62% | ― | 2.41% | -146.70% | |
50 Neutral | $4.02B | -12.00 | -15.70% | 3.23% | 1.67% | -230.59% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
44.99
-2.23
-4.72%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
114.78
39.74
52.95%
MGM
MGM Resorts
43.46
3.69
9.28%
MTN
Vail Resorts
148.72
-4.15
-2.71%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
97.17
-24.89
-20.39%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
29.66
2.69
9.97%
Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Grand Vacations Amends Credit Agreement, Adds Term Loan
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. and its affiliated entities amended their existing credit agreement to implement a new $850 million term loan maturing in 2033. The new facility is used primarily to refinance approximately $849 millio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hilton Grand Vacations Adds New Independent Board Director
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations announced that David Sambur resigned from its board of directors in line with a stockholders agreement tied to Apollo Investors’ reduced ownership following a June 4, 2026 public offering of HGV shares...
Stock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Grand Vacations Announces Apollo Secondary Share Offering
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. and entities managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management entered into an underwriting agreement with Wells Fargo Securities for a secondary offering of 5,000,000 shares of Hilton Grand Vacations&#...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Grand Vacations Expands Timeshare Receivables Loan Facility
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Trust I LLC, a subsidiary of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., amended its Amended and Restated Receivables Loan Agreement to expand and modify its revolving warehouse loan facility. The changes increase the faci...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilton Grand Vacations Shareholders Approve Expanded Incentive Plan
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan, adding 1,250,000 shares of common stock available for equity-based awards, a move that expands the pool for long-ter...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.