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GooseHead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
NASDAQ:GSHD
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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$77.00
▲(12.13% Upside)
GooseHead Insurance's overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and solid financial efficiency, but is offset by high leverage, negative equity, and overvaluation concerns. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, adding to the cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Client Retention
Improved client retention enhances revenue stability and customer loyalty, providing a competitive edge in the insurance market.
Partnerships
Strategic partnerships expand distribution channels and market reach, potentially increasing policy sales and revenue growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.
Free Cash Flow Decline
Declining free cash flow limits the company's ability to reinvest in operations or reduce debt, potentially hindering long-term growth.
Depressed Housing Market
A sluggish housing market can reduce demand for related insurance products, affecting premium growth and revenue potential.
GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)392.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)60.4
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth24.81%
EPS Growth55.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,580
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding24,908,880
10 Day Avg. Volume448,924
30 Day Avg. Volume392,972
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)60.24
Price to Sales (P/S)8.41
P/FCF Ratio37.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda35.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.44Price Target Upside34.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGooseHead Insurance (GSHD) is a leading independent insurance agency based in the United States, specializing in property and casualty insurance products. The company operates through a vast network of agents and offers a diverse range of insurance solutions, including auto, home, renters, and commercial insurance, primarily focusing on providing personalized coverage options to meet the unique needs of its clients. GooseHead leverages technology to enhance customer experience and streamline the insurance purchasing process, positioning itself as a modern player in the insurance market.
How the Company Makes MoneyGooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned on insurance policies sold to clients. The company partners with multiple insurance carriers, allowing agents to offer a wide variety of policy options to consumers. Each time a policy is sold or renewed, GooseHead receives a percentage of the premium as commission, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from its growing network of franchise agents who operate under the GooseHead brand, providing another revenue stream through franchise fees and ongoing royalties. The use of advanced technology and data analytics also enables GooseHead to optimize its operations and enhance customer acquisition, contributing to its overall earnings.
GooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth and strong partnerships, along with improvements in client retention and contingent commissions. However, challenges such as a decrease in operating franchise count, high turnover, and a depressed housing market were noted. Overall, the positives in revenue growth, partnerships, and client retention outweigh the negatives, marking a strong performance with some areas for improvement.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 16% over the previous year to $90.4 million, with core revenue growing 14% to $83.9 million.
Record Franchise Producer Growth
Franchise producers at quarter end were 2,124, up 1% from a year ago, with producers per franchise growing 6% over the previous year.
Successful New Partnerships
Goosehead partnered with a top 20 mortgage originator and servicer, poised to become one of the largest agencies in the Goosehead system upon launch.
Improvement in Client Retention
Client retention improved to 85% at quarter end, after four consecutive quarters at 84%.
Enterprise Sales Team Growth
The enterprise sales team grew over 100% versus Q3 last year.
Contingent Commissions Surge
Contingent commissions for the quarter were $4.5 million compared to $2.5 million in the previous year, an increase of 82%.
Negative Updates
Decreasing Operating Franchise Count
Operating franchise count for the quarter was 1,068, a decrease of 4% over the previous year.
High Turnover in Corporate Sales Team
Turnover in the corporate sales team remains higher than targeted levels, although trending in the right direction.
Challenging Housing Market
Housing activity remains depressed, impacting written premium growth.
Lower Written Premium Growth
Written premiums for the quarter were $1.2 billion, up 15% from a year ago, which is lower than the 17% new business royalty fee growth seen in franchise.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Goosehead Insurance presented strong performance metrics and outlined strategic initiatives for continued growth. The company reported a 16% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching $90.4 million, with core revenue growing by 14% to $83.9 million and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 14% to $29.7 million. Total written premiums rose by 15% to $1.2 billion, with franchise premiums up 18% to $976 million. Goosehead's client retention improved to 85%, and the company saw record franchise growth with 90 new producers and 34 new agencies launched across 13 states. The enterprise sales team experienced a growth rate exceeding 100% compared to the previous year. Goosehead is investing significantly in its digital agent platform, with projected investments of $25-$35 million annually in 2026 and 2027, aiming to drive total written premium growth to 40% within five years. The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting total revenues between $350 million and $385 million and total written premiums placed between $4.38 billion and $4.65 billion.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GooseHead Insurance shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with healthy gross and EBIT margins. However, the balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity, posing financial instability risks. Cash flow generation is efficient, but the decline in free cash flow growth is concerning.Income Statement
GooseHead Insurance shows a positive revenue growth trend with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.63%. The company maintains healthy gross and EBIT margins at 45.62% and 21.16% respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively modest at 8.55%, suggesting room for improvement in cost management.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates high leverage and potential financial instability. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.40
Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.68, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting a decline in cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 353.97M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M | 117.01M |
| Gross Profit | 161.48M | 141.56M | 108.67M | 76.10M | 58.27M | 50.20M |
| EBITDA | 86.02M | 64.99M | 45.83M | 17.01M | 13.55M | 23.09M |
| Net Income | 30.25M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 2.63M | 8.30M | 18.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 403.60M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 267.80M | 185.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.59M | 54.28M | 41.96M | 28.74M | 28.53M | 24.91M |
| Total Debt | 57.65M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M | 119.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 574.32M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 336.99M | 224.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | -104.98M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.21M | -4.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.15M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.11M | 20.04M | 14.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.11M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 35.72M | 35.44M | 24.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.97M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M | -10.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.73M | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.25M | -15.83M | -3.33M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Negative
68.67
Price Trends
75.72
Negative
85.63
Negative
97.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.37
Negative
43.46
Neutral
33.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 68.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.01, below the 50-day MA of 75.72, and below the 200-day MA of 97.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ― | $936.32M | 7.72 | 20.11% | 4.69% | 9.52% | ― | |
| ― | $9.80B | 11.88 | 12.96% | 7.94% | 7.08% | -4.34% | |
| ― | $34.60B | 10.14 | 20.07% | 1.66% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
| ― | $32.21B | 8.08 | 17.81% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
| ― | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
| ― | $1.89B | ― | -1.83% | 2.50% | 20.42% | -110.82% | |
| ― | $2.53B | 60.40 | ― | ― | 24.81% | 55.93% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
68.67
-32.35
-32.02%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
86.31
-4.03
-4.46%
HIG
Hartford Financial
124.18
14.85
13.58%
ORI
Old Republic International
39.46
7.69
24.21%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
21.30
0.75
3.65%
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.
17.98
1.44
8.71%
GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events
Goosehead Insurance Reports Strong Growth Amid Challenges
Oct 24, 2025
Goosehead Insurance’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust growth and strategic partnerships, despite facing some operational challenges. The overall sentiment was positive, with significant revenue growth and strong client retention rates overshadowing concerns about franchise count and market conditions.
Goosehead Insurance Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth
Oct 23, 2025
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is a rapidly expanding independent personal lines insurance agency that operates through corporate and franchise locations across the United States, offering a wide range of insurance products and services.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
GooseHead Insurance Expands Leadership with New COO Appointment
Positive
Aug 28, 2025
On August 26, 2025, Goosehead Insurance appointed Mark E. Jones, Jr. as Chief Operating Officer, while he continues as Chief Financial Officer. This role expansion aims to enhance operational discipline and align finance, operations, and strategic functions to support Goosehead’s long-term growth strategy. The move is expected to strengthen the company’s ability to execute its strategy and deliver shareholder value, positioning Goosehead for sustained success in its goal to become the largest distributor of personal lines insurance.
The most recent analyst rating on (GSHD) stock is a Hold with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GooseHead Insurance stock, see the GSHD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.