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Galp Energia (GLPEY)
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Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) AI Stock Analysis

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GLPEY

Galp Energia SGPS SA

(OTC:GLPEY)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(18.15% Upside)
Galp Energia's overall score reflects strong operational performance and positive technical indicators. While financial performance is stable, declining revenue and cash flow efficiency need improvement. The earnings call provided confidence in future growth, despite some external challenges.

Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGalp Energia SGPS SA is a Portuguese multinational energy company engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas, as well as the development of renewable energy sources. The company operates in various sectors, including upstream (exploration and production of oil and natural gas), midstream (transportation and storage of hydrocarbons), and downstream (refining and marketing of fuels and lubricants). Additionally, Galp is involved in renewable energy projects, particularly in solar and wind energy, aligning with global trends towards sustainability.
How the Company Makes MoneyGalp Energia generates revenue primarily through its upstream activities, where it explores and produces oil and gas, selling these commodities in both domestic and international markets. The company also earns significant income from its downstream operations, which include refining crude oil into various petroleum products and marketing these products through its extensive retail network. Furthermore, Galp is investing in renewable energy projects, which are expected to contribute to future revenue streams as the global energy landscape shifts. Key partnerships with other energy companies and investments in joint ventures enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, while its integrated business model allows for cost efficiencies and risk management across its operations.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with notable achievements in upstream production, financial resilience, and commercial sector performance. However, the call also highlighted challenges such as a volatile macro environment, refinery impacts, a tax dispute in Mozambique, and ongoing negotiations in Namibia.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Upstream Production in Brazil
Upstream production in Brazil continued elevated with 115,000 barrels per day, driven by high availabilities of the fleet during the quarter. Confidence in ending the year close to the upper end of the 150,000 to 110,000 guidance.
Bacalhau First Oil Milestone
Bacalhau reached first oil, a key project for Galp, expected to drive free cash flow growth in the coming years.
Record High Quarterly EBITDA in Iberia
In Iberia, record high quarter EBITDA posted in downstream businesses, particularly in refining and commercial.
Resilient Financial Position
Further reduced net debt to 0.4x, reinforcing financial position, with a 2026 dividend breakeven just below $40.
Strong Commercial Sector Performance
Commercial sector results above pre-COVID levels, with nonfuel and new business nearly at 30% of the full delivered value.
Negative Updates
Volatile Macro Environment
The macro environment continues to be volatile and challenging, affecting overall operations.
Refinery Turnaround Impact
Refinery maintenance expected to impact fourth-quarter performance, with a negative contribution from refining.
Mozambique Tax Dispute
International arbitration triggered over tax dispute with Mozambique, but no provision recognized in the books.
Namibia Partnership Uncertainty
Ongoing discussions and negotiations regarding Namibia partnership, with no definitive resolution yet.
Company Guidance
During Galp's Third Quarter 2025 Results Presentation, the company shared guidance indicating strong performance across its portfolio. In upstream, Brazil's production remained elevated at 115,000 barrels per day, boosting confidence to end the year near the high end of their 150,000 to 110,000 barrels per day guidance. Bacalhau's recent first oil milestone is poised to drive future free cash flow growth. In Iberia, strong seasonal trends in downstream businesses, notably in refining and commercial, resulted in record-high quarterly EBITDA, surpassing pre-COVID levels. Despite a volatile macro environment, Galp maintains a resilient portfolio with a 2026 dividend breakeven below $40 per barrel. The company expects to exceed its full-year group EBITDA and operating cash flow guidance, driven by robust asset performance. Financially, Galp continues to strengthen its position by reducing net debt to 0.4x, providing a solid foundation to pursue value-accretive opportunities. The ongoing discussions in Namibia are progressing well, reinforcing confidence in establishing a strong partnership to accelerate and prioritize the Mopane project.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Galp Energia demonstrates stable profitability with a net profit margin of 4.82% and an EBIT margin of 10.63%. However, declining revenue growth and a decrease in gross profit margin pose potential risks. The balance sheet is moderately strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 and a return on equity of 21.58%. Cash flow shows positive growth, but operational cash generation needs improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Galp Energia's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.31% in the TTM period. However, it maintains a stable net profit margin of 4.82% and an EBIT margin of 10.63%, indicating operational efficiency. The gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, which could be a concern. Overall, while profitability remains stable, the declining revenue trend is a potential risk.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 in the TTM period suggests a balanced leverage, though slightly higher than the previous year. The return on equity is strong at 21.58%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, showing a solid capital structure. While the company has managed its debt well, maintaining this balance is crucial to avoid financial strain.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Galp Energia's cash flow statement indicates some strengths and weaknesses. The free cash flow growth rate has improved by 13.23% in the TTM period, showing positive cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.42, suggesting that cash generation from operations could be improved. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.25, indicating that a portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow. Overall, while there is positive cash flow growth, operational cash generation needs attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.35B21.31B20.77B26.84B16.11B11.39B
Gross Profit2.35B2.73B3.98B2.67B1.83B166.00M
EBITDA3.13B3.50B3.75B4.54B1.81B1.19B
Net Income980.00M1.04B1.24B1.48B191.00M-490.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.51B16.82B16.61B16.10B14.91B12.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.81B2.44B2.37B2.74B2.93B1.83B
Total Debt4.95B4.91B5.41B5.26B5.48B4.83B
Total Liabilities10.40B11.18B11.28B10.98B10.94B8.39B
Stockholders Equity4.33B4.69B4.41B4.16B3.05B3.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow505.00M1.15B1.57B1.99B273.00M239.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.74B2.53B2.63B3.07B1.05B888.00M
Investing Cash Flow-543.00M-1.05B-1.02B-1.27B-460.00M-674.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.26B-1.35B-1.91B-1.26B-530.00M190.00M

Galp Energia SGPS SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.31
Price Trends
50DMA
9.56
Positive
100DMA
9.44
Positive
200DMA
8.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Negative
RSI
60.44
Neutral
STOCH
83.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.65, below the 50-day MA of 9.56, and above the 200-day MA of 8.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLPEY.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$56.04B18.555.31%4.96%-3.84%15.75%
$19.17B6.4515.94%19.35%-7.51%-29.04%
$73.25B5.6019.48%14.23%-13.68%-13.96%
$15.08B13.8121.59%1.82%-5.97%-23.18%
$61.14B7.9919.22%8.93%1.19%-7.87%
$14.23B11.2210.88%4.28%
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GLPEY
Galp Energia SGPS SA
10.00
1.52
17.92%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
9.25
2.40
35.04%
E
Eni SPA
36.67
7.81
27.06%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
11.72
0.24
2.09%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
23.97
2.32
10.72%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
34.59
9.22
36.34%

Galp Energia SGPS SA Corporate Events

Galp Energia Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance
Oct 28, 2025

Galp Energia is a prominent energy company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, refining, and marketing, with a significant presence in the renewable energy sector. In its recent earnings report, Galp Energia showcased a strong operational performance for the third quarter of 2025, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company reported a robust RCA Ebitda of €911 million, driven by solid results in its upstream and downstream operations, and a notable reduction in net debt to €1.2 billion. Key highlights include the start of production at the Bacalhau FPSO, which is expected to enhance short-term cash flow, and ongoing negotiations in Namibia for a strategic partnership. Looking ahead, Galp Energia remains confident in surpassing its 2025 guidance for Ebitda and operating cash flow, with a strategic focus on advancing its low-carbon projects and expanding its renewable energy capacity.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025