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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$108.00
â–²(18.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
EXE scores well primarily on strong current financial health (profitability rebound and very low reported leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Earnings-call guidance adds support via the Twin Eagle-driven free-cash-flow uplift targets and continued buybacks, while the score is tempered by commodity-cycle volatility and only moderate technical strength given the stock remains below its 200-day moving average.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow ($1.7B reported) provides durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and selective reinvestment. Consistent cash conversion underpins financial flexibility and long-term capital allocation, supporting resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price and revenue volatility
Revenue and cash generation remain sensitive to commodity price swings. A ~5% TTM revenue decline and an 11% FCF drop year‑over‑year highlight variability. Moderate FCF conversion (~45%) constrains predictability of internal funding and increases dependence on prudent capital discipline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow ($1.7B reported) provides durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and selective reinvestment. Consistent cash conversion underpins financial flexibility and long-term capital allocation, supporting resilience through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across countries and regions to show where Expand Energy is strongest and where it is most exposed to local economic, regulatory, or currency risks. Highlights concentration risk, identifies markets with the most growth potential, and helps assess how geopolitical or policy changes could impact future sales.
Breaks down revenue across countries and regions to show where Expand Energy is strongest and where it is most exposed to local economic, regulatory, or currency risks. Highlights concentration risk, identifies markets with the most growth potential, and helps assess how geopolitical or policy changes could impact future sales.
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The Fly
The FlyExpand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.80B
Dividend Yield2.41%
Average Volume (3M)4.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth42.49%
EPS Growth2605.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.68
Shares Outstanding231,503,780
10 Day Avg. Volume3,834,227
30 Day Avg. Volume4,000,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio14.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$124.93Price Target Upside36.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)9.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.61B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development o...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive and strategic tone: management executed disciplined capital allocation (debt paydown and $850M buybacks), secured a transformational Twin Eagle acquisition that materially strengthens marketing, storage and coast-to-coast origination capabilities, and raised M&C free cash flow targets to $750M. Operational execution and efficiency gains support improved returns and modestly lower breakevens. Near-term challenges include softer natural gas prices, elevated Q2/Q3 CapEx partly due to leasing and fuel costs, pushed TILs from larger completions and exploratory risk in Western Haynesville. Overall, the positive strategic progress, strong liquidity and expected synergy-driven EBITDA uplift appear to outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Transformational Twin Eagle Acquisition
Acquired Twin Eagle to create an integrated upstream + marketing platform; expected to contribute >$200 million of EBITDA in year 1 and grow to $350 million/year within ~2 years as synergies are captured. Twin Eagle brings ~1,000–1,300 customers (90% average retention) and ~44 Bcf of storage (pro forma ~49 Bcf). Management raised incremental marketing/commercial free cash flow target to $750 million (up from prior ~$500 million).
Negative Updates
Near-Term Natural Gas Price Weakness and Market Oversupply
Prompt-month natural gas prices dipped after Q1; management noted the market is modestly oversupplied through at least H1 2027 due to incremental Permian egress (~3.5 Bcf/d), and the 2027 strip has come under pressure—creating near-term headwinds to realizations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Twin Eagle Acquisition
Acquired Twin Eagle to create an integrated upstream + marketing platform; expected to contribute >$200 million of EBITDA in year 1 and grow to $350 million/year within ~2 years as synergies are captured. Twin Eagle brings ~1,000–1,300 customers (90% average retention) and ~44 Bcf of storage (pro forma ~49 Bcf). Management raised incremental marketing/commercial free cash flow target to $750 million (up from prior ~$500 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its incremental marketing & commercial free cash flow target to $750 million (up from the prior $500M plan) after announcing the Twin Eagle deal, which management expects to contribute >$200 million of EBITDA in year one and to grow to ~$350 million/year within two years (with 1.5–2.0x upside in high-volatility periods); other key metrics discussed included a board authorization of an additional $1 billion buyback after repurchasing $850 million (≈4% of shares) and a Q1 paydown of $1.3 billion gross debt, a mid‑cycle gas price view of $3.50–$4.00, a current breakeven (ex‑dividend) of roughly $2.70 that the acquisition and synergies are expected to lower by ~$0.05–$0.10 and ~$0.10–$0.15 respectively (≈$0.30 total if the full $750M M&C target is achieved), pro forma storage rising to ~49 Bcf (including ~44 Bcf from Twin Eagle), ~9 Bcf/day of gas currently marketed, production run‑rate targeted around 7.5 Bcf/day (with >7.6 Bcf/day expected in 4Q), roughly 200 wells drilled per year, maintenance CapEx near $2.8 billion, and large inventory metrics (e.g., ~2,000 Louisiana locations, >20 years of inventory, 75% of Tier‑1 inventory), plus >100 NFZ locations acquired at under $0.5 million each.Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.37B | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 8.44B | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 6.63B | 5.50B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 2.78B | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.03B | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.37B | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.73B | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.62B | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.41B | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.54B | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.64B | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.96B | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.73B | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $33.16B | 11.65 | 11.71% | 1.23% | 30.17% | 131.21% | |
76 Outperform | $21.80B | 8.06 | 14.70% | 3.49% | 42.49% | 2605.14% | |
75 Outperform | $52.33B | 11.25 | 14.90% | 2.31% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
72 Outperform | $24.89B | 46.54 | 35.77% | 0.46% | 20.82% | 17.23% | |
71 Outperform | $44.14B | 16.32 | 7.67% | 4.96% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
95.45
4.45
4.89%
DVN
Devon Energy
47.83
15.10
46.14%
EQT
EQT
53.14
3.19
6.38%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
23.46
7.76
49.43%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
365.36
66.51
22.25%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Expand Energy Announces Major Twin Eagle Acquisition Agreement
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 24, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement to acquire Twin Eagle N.A., LLC, an independent asset-backed natural gas marketing and optimization business, through a merger of its subsidiary Eikon AW Holdings, LLC wit...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q2 Results, Boosts Buybacks
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Expand Energy reported its second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, highlighting net income of $522 million, adjusted EBITDAX of $1.18 billion and net production of about 7.48 Bcfe per day, 92% of which was natural gas. The company reduced to...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Expand Energy to Acquire Twin Eagle for Growth
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation announced a definitive agreement to acquire Twin Eagle Holdings N.A., LLC, a private asset-backed natural gas marketing and optimization business, for $1.25 billion from Five Point Infrastructure. The de...
Executive/Board Changes
Expand Energy CFO Assumes Interim Principal Accounting Role
Neutral
Jun 26, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation’s Vice President – Accounting Controller, Gregory M. Larson, informed the company of his intention to resign, with the move stated as unrelated to any disagreement over operations, policies ...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Expand Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on June 4, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation reported that investors elected all nine board nominees to serve until the next annual meeting or until successors are chosen. The voting results showed bro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.