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Erie Indemnity Company
(NASDAQ:ERIE)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$298.00
â–²(15.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
ERIE scores well primarily on strong financial performance—especially its near-zero leverage balance sheet and solid profitability/free cash flow. The latest earnings call supports the score with meaningful underwriting improvement and stronger surplus, though slowing growth and a combined ratio still above 100% temper upside. Technicals are supportive (positive trend and MACD), while valuation appears reasonable with a moderate P/E and a ~2.25% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Minimal leverage and substantial equity growth provide financial flexibility and resilience. This supports continued investment in technology and operations while reducing refinancing risk and allowing the company to withstand volatility in insurance results.
Negative Factors
Slowing Premium Growth
Because management fee revenue is tied largely to Exchange premiums, slower written premium growth directly limits the company's revenue expansion. Normalizing pricing and intense competition could keep the fee base growing more slowly over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Minimal leverage and substantial equity growth provide financial flexibility and resilience. This supports continued investment in technology and operations while reducing refinancing risk and allowing the company to withstand volatility in insurance results.
Read all positive factors
Erie Indemnity Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across business segments—such as premiums, management fees, and investment income—revealing which activities drive growth and where revenue is concentrated. Segment mix helps investors judge diversification, margin profiles, and which parts of the business are most exposed to underwriting cycles or market volatility.
Breaks down revenue across business segments—such as premiums, management fees, and investment income—revealing which activities drive growth and where revenue is concentrated. Segment mix helps investors judge diversification, margin profiles, and which parts of the business are most exposed to underwriting cycles or market volatility.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyErie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.08B
Dividend Yield2.21%
Average Volume (3M)258.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.0
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth3.65%
EPS Growth-7.67%
CountryUS
Employees6,667
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.39
Shares Outstanding46,189,068
10 Day Avg. Volume313,882
30 Day Avg. Volume258,855
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.50
Price to Book (P/B)5.85
Price to Sales (P/S)3.28
P/FCF Ratio23.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)12.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.18B
Erie Indemnity Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and a...
How the Company Makes Money
Erie Indemnity makes money primarily by providing services to the Erie Insurance Exchange (the reciprocal insurance exchange it manages as attorney-in-fact) and being compensated for those services under an agreement structure that is largely tied...
Erie Indemnity Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful progress on profitability and financial strength: combined ratio improved materially, net income and operating income increased, policyholder surplus grew, expenses outside commissions were reduced, and strategic initiatives (ErieSecure Auto, new online quoting, teenSMART, and AI tools) are advancing. However, growth metrics weakened materially (direct written premium growth slowed to ~3.3% and policies in force fell ~2%), retention dipped, commission and personnel costs rose, and the combined ratio remains slightly above 100%. Balancing the clear operational and financial improvements against the notable growth challenges and cost pressures results in an overall cautiously optimistic tone.Positive Updates
Improved Underwriting Profitability
Combined ratio improved 13 points in Q2 2026 to 103.9% from 116.9% in Q2 2025. Year-to-date combined ratio improved to 101.6% from 112.6% in the first half of 2025 (11.0 point improvement). Non-catastrophe losses improved ~3 points year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Slowing Premium Growth
Direct written premium growth slowed to 3.3% in Q2 2026 (vs 9.2% in Q2 2025). Year-to-date direct written premium grew 3.4% vs 11.4% in the same period last year, reflecting moderating growth as pricing normalizes and competition remains intense.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Underwriting Profitability
Combined ratio improved 13 points in Q2 2026 to 103.9% from 116.9% in Q2 2025. Year-to-date combined ratio improved to 101.6% from 112.6% in the first half of 2025 (11.0 point improvement). Non-catastrophe losses improved ~3 points year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized continued focus on restoring profitability, disciplined growth and investing in products and technology, supported by concrete metrics: Q2 2026 combined ratio improved to 103.9% (down 13 points from Q2 2025's 116.9%) and is 101.6% year‑to‑date (vs. 112.6% prior), catastrophe losses impacted Q2 by 15 points (vs. 22 points prior year) and are 7 points better YTD, non‑cat losses improved ~3 points, direct written premium growth moderated to +3.3% in Q2 and +3.4% YTD (vs. +9.2% and +11.4% prior), average premium per policy +6.8%, policies in force -2%, retention 87.5%, policyholder surplus ≈ $10.7B (up from ≈ $10.1B at year‑end 2025); Indemnity results included net income $180M ($3.45/diluted share) in Q2 and $331M ($6.32/share) YTD, operating income $204M Q2 (+2.5%) and $371M YTD (+5.8%), management fee revenue +$39M Q2 (+4.7%) and +$70M YTD (+4.5%), commission expense +$45M Q2 (+9.6%) and +$73M YTD (+8.1%), non‑commission expenses down $9M Q2 (-4.8%) and $20M YTD (-5%), investment income $23M Q2 ($45M YTD vs. $39M prior) and ~$136M of dividends paid YTD; product/tech progress noted: ErieSecure Auto active in 10 states, online quoting rollout complete with conversions nearly double, and teenSMART offers up to a 20% discount for eligible drivers ≤20 while improving claim frequency and severity.Erie Indemnity Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.12B | 4.07B | 3.80B | 3.27B | 2.84B | 2.63B |
| Gross Profit | 680.92M | 640.80M | 676.46M | 520.26M | 376.21M | 318.10M |
| EBITDA | 791.06M | 787.39M | 766.34M | 600.23M | 428.41M | 351.22M |
| Net Income | 577.00M | 559.34M | 600.31M | 446.06M | 298.57M | 297.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.56B | 3.36B | 2.89B | 2.47B | 2.24B | 2.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.62M | 353.02M | 319.44M | 226.07M | 166.36M | 222.10M |
| Total Debt | 63.16M | 0.00 | 7.51M | 0.00 | 122.50M | 93.83M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.09B | 1.07B | 901.36M | 809.13M | 791.05M | 899.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.47B | 2.28B | 1.99B | 1.66B | 1.45B | 1.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.08M | 570.97M | 486.40M | 288.56M | 298.95M | 253.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 697.78M | 686.66M | 611.25M | 381.20M | 366.15M | 402.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -537.41M | -439.33M | -226.91M | -157.56M | -106.92M | -185.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -235.49M | -199.85M | -230.00M | -221.68M | -300.84M | -194.84M |
Erie Indemnity Company Technical Analysis
Positive
257.98
Price Trends
242.84
Positive
234.63
Positive
252.78
Positive
Market Momentum
6.04
Positive
56.42
Neutral
46.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERIE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 257.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 256.04, above the 50-day MA of 242.84, and above the 200-day MA of 252.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ERIE.
Erie Indemnity Company Risk Analysis
Erie Indemnity Company disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Erie Indemnity Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Erie Indemnity Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $12.08B | 21.02 | 24.52% | 2.57% | 3.65% | -7.67% | |
78 Outperform | $5.50B | 11.47 | 13.87% | 1.80% | 7.30% | 32.16% | |
77 Outperform | $26.48B | 8.08 | 20.89% | 1.98% | 19.55% | 84.05% | |
76 Outperform | $7.93B | 10.72 | 21.22% | 1.72% | 5.57% | 38.39% | |
69 Neutral | $5.69B | 6.09 | 37.19% | 1.18% | 9.95% | 140.12% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
55 Neutral | $1.63B | -3.32 | -19.33% | 4.44% | -3.92% | -256.50% |
* Financial Sector Average
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
260.40
-86.63
-24.96%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
171.97
21.74
14.47%
MCY
Mercury General
102.97
26.74
35.08%
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
92.46
15.77
20.57%
THG
Hanover Insurance
227.67
57.70
33.95%
KMPR
Kemper
27.93
-23.56
-45.76%
Erie Indemnity Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Erie Indemnity Posts Strong Q2 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
Erie Indemnity Company, the management entity for Erie Insurance Group, operates in the U.S. property and casualty insurance sector, supporting one of the country’s largest homeowners, auto and commercial lines insurers. Based in Erie, Penns...
Executive/Board Changes
Erie Indemnity Announces Planned Retirement of CFO Pelkowski
Neutral
May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Erie Indemnity Company announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Julie M. Pelkowski will retire at the end of 2026 after more than 25 years with the company. Pelkowski, who has served as CFO since 2023, i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.