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Boot Barn
(NYSE:BOOT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$122.00
▼(-23.62% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
Overall score reflects solid fundamentals and a reasonable earnings multiple, supported by a generally upbeat earnings call with raised store-opening plans and margin improvement initiatives. These positives are tempered by a notably weak technical setup (price below all key moving averages and negative momentum) and mixed cash-flow conversion/consistency, alongside near-term demand signals that softened (moderating comps and traffic declines).
Positive Factors
Store Expansion
Boot Barn is still adding locations rapidly, and management has raised its opening plan rather than slowing expansion. New stores are outperforming initial sales projections, while the stated 1,200-location opportunity provides a substantial runway for multi-year revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Slowing Demand
Lower same-store sales expectations and declining transactions indicate that underlying demand is becoming less supportive of growth. If traffic remains pressured, new-store openings will need to carry more of the revenue burden, while weaker mature-store productivity could limit operating leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Store Expansion
Boot Barn is still adding locations rapidly, and management has raised its opening plan rather than slowing expansion. New stores are outperforming initial sales projections, while the stated 1,200-location opportunity provides a substantial runway for multi-year revenue growth.
Read all positive factors
Boot Barn Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Boot Barn (BOOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.90B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)800.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth16.82%
EPS Growth22.18%
CountryUS
Employees12,700
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.33
Shares Outstanding30,284,843
10 Day Avg. Volume991,040
30 Day Avg. Volume800,595
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)3.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio36.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$192.50Price Target Upside20.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)9.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.60B
Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. engages in the operation of retail stores of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories. The firm's products include boots, jeans, accessories, hats, gifts and home products, and work wear. Its brands incl...
How the Company Makes Money
Boot Barn makes money primarily by selling merchandise (footwear, apparel, and accessories) to consumers through two main channels: (1) physical retail stores and (2) its e-commerce website(s). Revenue is generated at the point of sale when custom...
Boot Barn Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q2-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Boot Barn delivered strong revenue, EPS, margin, new-store, cash-flow, and shareholder-return results, raised its store-opening and merchandise-margin outlook, and maintained confidence in its long-term growth algorithm. The principal challenges were moderating October comps, lower same-store sales guidance, weakness in western boots, declining traffic and transactions, slower e-commerce growth, and some cost deleverage. Management described targeted merchandising, marketing, and B2B initiatives intended to address these areas and expressed confidence in the holiday season and longer-term outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Second-Quarter Revenue and EPS Growth
Second-quarter net sales increased 15% to $582 million, supported by new store growth and positive same-store sales. Earnings per diluted share increased 26% to $1.73 from $1.37, exceeding the high end of guidance by $0.08.
Negative Updates
October Same-Store Sales Moderation
Through the first four weeks of the fiscal third quarter, consolidated same-store sales were only slightly positive. Management said October performance was not satisfactory, with a broad-based step down of a point or two across major merchandise categories while cycling 9% same-store sales growth last year.
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Second-Quarter Revenue and EPS Growth
Second-quarter net sales increased 15% to $582 million, supported by new store growth and positive same-store sales. Earnings per diluted share increased 26% to $1.73 from $1.37, exceeding the high end of guidance by $0.08.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 27, Boot Barn increased its new-store plan from 70 stores to a range of 75 to 80 stores, while underwriting approximately $3.2 million in first year sales; at the high end of guidance, it expects total sales of $2.6 billion, representing 15% growth, same store sales to increase 2% including a 1.7% increase in retail store comps and 4% growth in ecommerce comps, merchandise margin of approximately 52.3% of sales, representing a 140 basis point year over year increase including 70 basis points from tariff refunds, 50 basis points of product margin expansion, and 20 basis points of freight improvement, gross profit rate of approximately 38.5%, 20 basis points of SG&A leverage, income from operations of $32 million or 14% of sales, net income of $272 million, earnings per diluted share growth of 22% to $9, net capital expenditures of $140 million, and an effective tax rate of 25.7% for the remainder of the fiscal year; for the third quarter, it expects total sales of $802 million, consolidated same store sales growth of 1%, merchandise margin of approximately 51.5%, gross profit rate of approximately 39.8%, SG&A of approximately 23.6% of sales, income from operations of $130 million or 16.2% of sales, and earnings per diluted share of $3.19 compared to $2.79 last year.Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.42B | 2.25B | 1.91B | 1.67B | 1.66B | 1.49B |
| Gross Profit | 933.37M | 858.36M | 717.04M | 614.42M | 610.57M | 575.07M |
| EBITDA | 425.18M | 380.77M | 304.10M | 249.19M | 267.64M | 285.65M |
| Net Income | 252.86M | 225.88M | 180.94M | 147.00M | 170.55M | 192.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.66B | 2.67B | 2.02B | 1.71B | 1.52B | 1.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 97.42M | 141.04M | 69.77M | 75.85M | 18.19M | 20.67M |
| Total Debt | 858.31M | 773.48M | 563.04M | 466.76M | 447.72M | 306.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28B | 1.35B | 886.96M | 761.95M | 740.93M | 600.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.38B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 943.64M | 776.45M | 599.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 127.48M | 126.34M | -753.00K | 117.30M | -35.65M | 28.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.06M | 304.90M | 147.54M | 236.08M | 88.89M | 88.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -201.52M | -178.81M | -148.24M | -118.78M | -124.53M | -60.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -94.85M | -54.83M | -5.38M | -59.64M | 33.17M | -80.89M |
Boot Barn Technical Analysis
Negative
159.72
Price Trends
132.49
Negative
147.08
Negative
158.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.79
Negative
37.93
Neutral
17.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 159.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 118.58, above the 50-day MA of 132.49, and above the 200-day MA of 158.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BOOT.
Boot Barn Risk Analysis
Boot Barn disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boot Barn reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boot Barn Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.42B | 10.72 | 46.91% | 9.37% | 6.22% | 8.74% | |
66 Neutral | $3.90B | 15.66 | 18.94% | 2.98% | 16.82% | 22.18% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $469.61M | 8.45 | 8.38% | 2.06% | 7.32% | -13.12% | |
59 Neutral | $167.22M | 27.50 | 3.54% | ― | -8.63% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $408.57M | 9.35 | 7.60% | ― | 3.00% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $409.66M | 16.93 | 3.57% | 5.21% | -4.13% | -61.14% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BOOT
Boot Barn
130.48
-55.03
-29.66%
BKE
Buckle
46.97
-2.55
-5.15%
GCO
Genesco
37.76
8.97
31.16%
SHOE
Shoe Station Group
15.07
-2.29
-13.20%
CAL
Caleres
13.61
2.88
26.81%
DLTH
Duluth Holdings
4.40
1.59
56.58%
Boot Barn Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Boot Barn boosts earnings and expands share repurchases
Positive
Oct 28, 2026
For the second fiscal quarter ended September 26, 2026, Boot Barn reported net sales up 15.1% year over year to $581.8 million, driven by new store openings and 1.4% consolidated same-store sales growth, including robust e-commerce gains. Merchand...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Boot Barn Reaffirms Guidance and Highlights Solid Q2 Trends
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. announced its participation in two major investor conferences, the Goldman Sachs Global Consumer and Retail Conference on September 15 and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 1...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Boot Barn Shareholders Approve New 2026 Equity Plan
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on August 26, 2026, Boot Barn shareholders approved a new 2026 Equity Incentive Plan that replaces the company’s 2020 plan and authorizes up to 1,000,000 new shares plus up to 1,088,748 rollove...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Boot Barn Expands Credit Facility, Reports Strong Quarter
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Boot Barn doubled its revolving credit facility to $500 million and extended its maturity to July 28, 2031, while revising certain covenants and reducing its swingline capacity, enhancing financial flexibility to support expansio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.