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Bloomin' Brands
(NASDAQ:BLMN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(44.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by fragile fundamentals—thin margins and a highly leveraged balance sheet—despite solid cash generation and improving results. Technicals are a notable positive with strong price trend and momentum. Valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but elevated P/E), and the latest earnings call was balanced: guidance improved, but near-term profitability and cost/traffic risks remain.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for refreshes, marketing, and debt repayment. Strong cash generation gives management flexibility to invest in multi-year brand initiatives and support distributions without relying solely on external financing.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure limits strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility and refinancing cycles. High leverage elevates interest and covenant risk, constraining the company's ability to invest in growth or weather cyclical downturns without materially impacting cash flow available for other uses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for refreshes, marketing, and debt repayment. Strong cash generation gives management flexibility to invest in multi-year brand initiatives and support distributions without relying solely on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$915.29M
Dividend Yield6.47%
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth-2.05%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees64,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding85,620,920
10 Day Avg. Volume1,535,968
30 Day Avg. Volume2,010,812
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio5.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.42Price Target Upside43.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.98B
Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its various subsidiary entities, operates a diverse portfolio of dining establishments, encompassing casual, upscale casual, and fine dining experiences across the United States and internationally. The company's ope...
How the Company Makes Money
Bloomin' Brands makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to guests through its restaurant brands. Revenue is generated at company-owned restaurants from (1) on-premises dining sales (food and alcoholic/non-alcoholic beverage sales) and ...
Bloomin' Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced call highlighting measurable operational and financial progress — improved guest scores, comp sales, mix, margins, and raised full-year EPS guidance — while also acknowledging tangible near-term challenges including year-over-year traffic declines, commodity cost pressures, a negative Q3 EPS outlook, ongoing Brazil losses, and leverage above the company target. Management reduced planned turnaround spend and is reallocating marketing investment to drive brand relevancy; the path to sustainable traffic recovery is described as cumulative and not linear.Positive Updates
Revenue and Comparable Sales Improvement
Total revenues of $1.02 billion in Q2, up 1% year-over-year. U.S. comparable restaurant sales improved +230 basis points (2.3%) in Q2, narrowing the gap to industry comps.
Negative Updates
Traffic Declines Despite Sales Gains
Overall U.S. traffic declined 190 basis points (1.9%) in Q2. Outback traffic down 280 basis points (2.8%), Carrabba's traffic down 250 basis points (2.5%), and Fleming's traffic down 280 basis points (2.8%). Management noted part of the traffic decline reflects a deliberate decision not to re-lap dilutive third-party delivery promotions from the prior year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Comparable Sales Improvement
Total revenues of $1.02 billion in Q2, up 1% year-over-year. U.S. comparable restaurant sales improved +230 basis points (2.3%) in Q2, narrowing the gap to industry comps.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: Bloomin' Brands expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales of 1.0%–2.0% for fiscal 2026 with sales mix improving ~100 basis points, and now targets full‑year adjusted diluted EPS of $0.90–$1.00 (up from prior $0.75–$0.90). For Q3 2026 the company forecasts U.S. comp sales of 1.0%–2.0% and adjusted diluted EPS of negative $0.27 to negative $0.22, with an expected Q3 tax expense of ~ $5M (driven by a negative full‑year tax rate) and a Q3 impact from the 33% Brazil equity method investment of about negative $2M (full‑year Brazil loss ~ negative $3M–$4M). Capital and balance‑sheet guidance includes full‑year capex of $185M–$195M (Q2 capex $44M), total debt net of cash of $636M, lease‑adjusted net leverage of 3.7x (goal 3.0x), and net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 2.0x; marketing is up ~ $15M year‑over‑year (~3% of sales; ~$10M of that at Outback). Operational and cost context driving the guidance: Q2 revenue $1.02B (+1%), Q2 U.S. comps +230 bps (traffic -190 bps), Outback Q2 comp +140 bps (traffic -280 bps), average check +420 bps, off‑premises 24% of U.S. sales, Q2 adjusted EPS $0.39 (GAAP $0.37), adjusted operating margin 4.0% vs 3.5% prior year, commodity inflation running ~4.5%–5.5% (Q2 commodities +5.7%), turnaround investments trimmed to $36M (from $50M) with mix investment down to $4M (from $18M), productivity savings on track for $30M and net 2026 turnaround investment of ~$6M.Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.98B | 3.96B | 3.95B | 4.17B | 4.01B | 4.12B |
| Gross Profit | 1.60B | 351.88M | 2.80B | 719.17M | 674.88M | 731.70M |
| EBITDA | 233.72M | 210.10M | 179.37M | 452.62M | 330.67M | 470.28M |
| Net Income | 27.66M | 5.38M | -128.02M | 247.39M | 101.91M | 215.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.12B | 3.17B | 3.38B | 3.42B | 3.32B | 3.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.61M | 59.46M | 70.06M | 111.52M | 84.73M | 87.58M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 2.02B | 2.27B | 2.03B | 2.16B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.68B | 2.83B | 3.25B | 3.01B | 3.05B | 3.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 431.83M | 333.60M | 135.51M | 409.12M | 271.37M | 216.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 154.97M | 96.77M | 7.39M | 250.19M | 171.23M | 279.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 319.78M | 276.69M | 228.13M | 532.42M | 390.92M | 402.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -64.61M | 2.11M | -239.03M | -315.21M | -204.76M | -103.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -238.86M | -289.09M | -23.51M | -189.02M | -191.88M | -318.77M |
Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis
Positive
7.94
Price Trends
8.86
Positive
7.85
Positive
7.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Negative
60.54
Neutral
29.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.79, below the 50-day MA of 8.86, and above the 200-day MA of 7.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLMN.
Bloomin' Brands Risk Analysis
Bloomin' Brands disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bloomin' Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.41B | 33.44 | 10.97% | ― | 3.54% | 56.84% | |
65 Neutral | $5.43B | 27.93 | 38.83% | 1.35% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $915.29M | 33.41 | 7.35% | 8.69% | -2.05% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $377.44M | 24.84 | 2.95% | ― | 2.89% | -58.76% | |
47 Neutral | $104.55M | -1.64 | -32.23% | ― | 5.09% | 8.91% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
10.61
3.43
47.77%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
64.74
29.71
84.81%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
105.82
45.01
74.02%
PTLO
Portillo's
4.91
-2.30
-31.90%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
1.86
-16.04
-89.61%
Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Announces Chief Human Resources Officer Resignation
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc., a major operator of casual dining restaurant brands, reported a leadership change in its human resources function. The company, which manages multiple full-service restaurant concepts, continues to emphasize stability ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.