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Portillo's
(NASDAQ:PTLO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-10.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by pressured profitability and negative free cash flow despite revenue growth, alongside an earnings call that included lowered EBITDA and margin guidance and ongoing traffic/commodity headwinds. Technicals are mixed (short-term improvement but still below longer-term averages), while valuation is moderate but lacks dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Continued revenue growth and contributions from newly opened restaurants show that Portillo’s company-operated expansion is adding sales capacity. Although development must improve returns, a growing restaurant base can support broader brand reach and create a durable platform for future earnings growth.
Negative Factors
Margin Pressure
The decline in restaurant-level profitability shows that higher commodity and operating costs are currently absorbing a meaningful share of sales. Persistent margin pressure limits earnings conversion and could weaken the economic returns of new locations unless pricing, productivity, or sourcing actions offset it.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Continued revenue growth and contributions from newly opened restaurants show that Portillo’s company-operated expansion is adding sales capacity. Although development must improve returns, a growing restaurant base can support broader brand reach and create a durable platform for future earnings growth.
Read all positive factors
Portillo's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, indicating the company’s expansion efforts and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPortillo's (PTLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$305.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.1
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth2.89%
EPS Growth-58.76%
CountryUS
Employees7,890
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding72,518,680
10 Day Avg. Volume1,922,663
30 Day Avg. Volume1,486,653
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)0.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-17.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.66Price Target Upside26.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$772.11M
Portillo's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Portillo's Inc., along with its affiliated companies, owns and operates a network of quick-service and fast-casual restaurants throughout the United States. The company's diverse menu prominently features classic Chicago-style hot dogs and sausage...
How the Company Makes Money
Portillo’s makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to customers through its company-owned restaurants. Its core revenue stream is restaurant sales, generated from individual customer transactions across dine-in, takeout, and d...
Portillo's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: solid revenue growth, record loyalty penetration, improved cash flow and a clear program of cost savings and organizational changes provide positive indicators for long-term profitability. However, near-term challenges are material—same-store sales and transactions slipped, restaurant-level margins were pressured by commodity inflation and underperforming new-market locations (notably in Texas/Arizona), and guidance was adjusted. Management emphasized disciplined development, prototype redesign, supply-chain savings and marketing/menu initiatives to address these issues.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q2 revenues of $199.0M, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven in part by non-comparable restaurant additions contributing $13.3M of the increase.
Negative Updates
Same-Restaurant Sales and Traffic Pressure
Same-restaurant sales declined 1.2% in Q2 with transactions down 3.4%; combined promotional laps, prior-year breakfast pilot, and cannibalization represented ~250 basis points of headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q2 revenues of $199.0M, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven in part by non-comparable restaurant additions contributing $13.3M of the increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management lowered full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $92–$96 million and said recent G&A, supply‑chain/indirect‑spend and development actions should generate roughly $10–$15 million of annualized run‑rate savings; they also trimmed restaurant‑level margin guidance by about 75 basis points at the midpoint. The company expects commodity inflation to be mid‑single digits for the year (beef is ~85% hedged for Q3–Q4 and the broader basket ~63% locked), anticipates roughly a 2% menu‑pricing benefit in Q3 after mid‑April selective increases (following ~1.7% carryover pricing from 2025 that lapsed in April–June), and said same‑restaurant sales are slightly positive early in Q3 even as promotional laps and cannibalization (about a 250‑bp headwind in Q2 and management warned upcoming laps could exceed ~200 bps) continue to pressure results. They reiterated 2026 openings of eight restaurants (one remaining in Q4), plan to use improving free cash flow to pay down debt (cash $21.3M; revolver drawn $97M with ~$49M capacity; net debt ~$338M), and expect to hit their commodity cost guidance by year‑end.Portillo's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 748.75M | 732.07M | 710.55M | 679.90M | 587.10M | 534.95M |
| Gross Profit | 180.76M | 288.67M | 287.78M | 275.17M | 228.47M | 229.40M |
| EBITDA | 65.44M | 76.01M | 94.79M | 79.85M | 67.53M | 46.06M |
| Net Income | 13.87M | 19.34M | 29.52M | 18.42M | 10.85M | 5.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.61B | 1.50B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 999.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.25M | 19.96M | 22.88M | 10.44M | 44.43M | 39.26M |
| Total Debt | 691.39M | 670.29M | 596.23M | 550.41M | 523.60M | 319.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.11B | 1.11B | 1.01B | 925.43M | 847.18M | 576.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 480.13M | 467.80M | 401.06M | 322.38M | 256.34M | 171.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.90M | -18.52M | 9.85M | -17.14M | 9.83M | 6.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 79.61M | 71.91M | 98.04M | 70.78M | 56.89M | 42.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.89M | -90.19M | -88.11M | -87.84M | -47.02M | -36.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.91M | 15.37M | 2.51M | -16.93M | -4.71M | -8.78M |
Portillo's Technical Analysis
Negative
4.48
Price Trends
4.25
Negative
4.32
Negative
4.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Negative
56.31
Neutral
91.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PTLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.70, above the 50-day MA of 4.25, and below the 200-day MA of 4.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PTLO.
Portillo's Risk Analysis
Portillo's disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Portillo's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Portillo's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $417.02M | 20.90 | -187.25% | 4.42% | 12.44% | -15.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.86B | 68.07 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
53 Neutral | $305.29M | 20.09 | 2.95% | ― | 2.89% | -58.76% | |
52 Neutral | $162.76M | -5.09 | 29.24% | ― | -3.71% | 50.04% | |
52 Neutral | $1.19B | 9.44 | 109.00% | 7.87% | -0.98% | -31.26% | |
47 Neutral | $243.58M | 7.30 | -3.65% | 5.73% | -20.21% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PTLO
Portillo's
4.27
-1.75
-29.07%
JACK
Jack In The Box
12.18
-5.60
-31.50%
NATH
Nathan's Famous
101.80
-1.23
-1.19%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
8.54
1.83
27.27%
WEN
Wendy's
6.31
-1.84
-22.57%
SHAK
Shake Shack
69.34
-22.06
-24.14%
Portillo's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Portillo’s Announces Departure of Chief People Officer
Neutral
Oct 6, 2026
On October 5, 2026, Portillo’s, Inc. announced that it had agreed with Chief People Officer Jill Waite that she will depart the company effective November 1, 2026, with her exit treated as a qualifying termination under the Senior Executive ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Portillo’s Q2 Results Highlight Cost Cuts Amid Expansion
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
Portillo’s reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026, posting revenue of $199.0 million, up 5.6% year on year, driven largely by new restaurant openings, while same-restaurant sales fell 1.2% and net income dropped to $7.2 milli...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Portillo’s Appoints New Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Portillo’s announced on August 4, 2026 that Kevin Kalicak, a veteran Darden Restaurants executive and most recently Senior Vice President of Finance for Olive Garden, will become its Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective September ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.