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AeroVironment
(NASDAQ:AVAV)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$158.00
▲(5.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
AVAV’s score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent cash generation and the latest-period profitability deterioration, despite a relatively solid, low-leverage balance sheet. The earnings call provides an offset with strong backlog/bookings and growth/EBITDA guidance, but management’s expectation of negative FY27 free cash flow and funding/timing risks limit confidence. Technically, the stock remains in a broader downtrend versus key moving averages, and valuation is difficult to assess favorably with a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Backlog Growth
A large funded backlog and record revenue provide multi-quarter visibility into U.S. and allied defense demand. Robust bookings reduce near-term revenue downside from award timing, support sustained production ramping, and underpin recurring sustainment and follow-on order potential.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Recent negative operating and free cash flow despite top‑line growth signals weak cash conversion and working capital pressure. Continued cash outflows could force external funding, constrain discretionary investment, and magnify risk from government payment delays during capacity builds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Backlog Growth
A large funded backlog and record revenue provide multi-quarter visibility into U.S. and allied defense demand. Robust bookings reduce near-term revenue downside from award timing, support sustained production ramping, and underpin recurring sustainment and follow-on order potential.
Read all positive factors
AeroVironment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAeroVironment (AVAV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.97
Revenue Growth140.89%
EPS Growth-448.13%
CountryUS
Employees4,091
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.63
Shares Outstanding50,608,030
10 Day Avg. Volume1,458,505
30 Day Avg. Volume2,017,837
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.18
Price to Sales (P/S)4.84
P/FCF Ratio-58.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$225.50Price Target Upside50.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)3.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.19B
AeroVironment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe. The company's operations are segmented into Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missi...
How the Company Makes Money
AeroVironment makes money primarily by selling uncrewed systems, payloads, and related services to government customers under defense procurement contracts. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) Product sales of small UAS platforms and as...
AeroVironment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 29, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial momentum: record Q4 and full‑year revenue, substantial bookings and backlog, margin expansion in product sales, major contract wins, and aggressive capacity investments to capture rising demand across lethal/unlethal drones, counter‑UAS and directed energy. Notable challenges include the SCAR termination and related $89M goodwill impairment with a disclosed material weakness, softness and funding delays in cyber/mission services, compressed service margins and temporary cash flow pressure due to elevated CapEx. Overall, the positive growth, bookings, product milestones and forward guidance materially outweigh the lowlights, though the company faces near‑term timing and execution risks tied to government funding and integration controls.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Full‑Year Revenue
Reported record Q4 revenue of $642 million and record fiscal year 2026 revenue of nearly $2.0 billion; organic revenue growth of ~30% year‑over‑year for both the quarter and full year.
Negative Updates
SCAR Contract Termination and Goodwill Impairment
Termination for convenience of the SCAR program led to an incremental noncash goodwill impairment charge of $89 million, a restatement of prior quarter results, and an identified material weakness in internal controls related to the goodwill impairment analysis.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Full‑Year Revenue
Reported record Q4 revenue of $642 million and record fiscal year 2026 revenue of nearly $2.0 billion; organic revenue growth of ~30% year‑over‑year for both the quarter and full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.13–$2.23 billion (midpoint ~$2.18B, ~10% YoY growth) with adjusted EBITDA of $305–$325 million (midpoint $315M, ~14.5% margin) and non‑GAAP EPS of $3.02–$3.34 (midpoint $3.18); guidance excludes SCAR revenue and assumes ~10% y/y growth, a ~77% ($~37M) increase in depreciation and cloud amortization that pressures near‑term EPS, and continued investment: R&D at 7–9% of revenue (~$153–$196M at midpoint) and CapEx at 12–14% of revenue (~$262–$305M at midpoint), with adjusted SG&A 14–16% of revenue. They expect revenue to be back‑loaded (45/55 H1/H2), adjusted EBITDA weighted ~1/3 H1 and 2/3 H2 (Q1 ≈45% of H1 revenue; Q1 EBITDA ≈1/3 of H1), non‑GAAP EPS 25/75 H1/H2 (Q1 ≈25% of H1 EPS), do not expect positive free cash flow in FY27 due to higher CapEx, and enter the year with funded backlog $1.2B, unfunded backlog $1.5B (total bookings YTD $2.7B) and net leverage ~1.2x adjusted EBITDA.AeroVironment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 820.63M | 716.72M | 540.54M | 445.73M |
| Gross Profit | 500.64M | 322.94M | 283.93M | 173.51M | 141.24M |
| EBITDA | -311.00M | 104.39M | 109.45M | 61.20M | 51.88M |
| Net Income | -265.12M | 43.62M | 59.67M | -176.21M | -4.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.72B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 824.58M | 914.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 632.30M | 40.86M | 73.30M | 132.86M | 101.95M |
| Total Debt | 834.79M | 64.29M | 59.68M | 162.82M | 216.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.32B | 234.06M | 193.12M | 273.61M | 305.99M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 886.51M | 822.75M | 550.97M | 607.97M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -164.62M | -24.13M | -9.19M | -3.47M | -31.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.40M | -1.32M | 15.29M | 11.40M | -9.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -28.49M | -51.71M | -7.00M | -52.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.65B | -2.86M | -22.85M | 50.83M | -16.61M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
Negative
149.51
Price Trends
164.64
Negative
177.16
Negative
235.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.89
Negative
46.38
Neutral
63.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 149.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.34, below the 50-day MA of 164.64, and below the 200-day MA of 235.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVAV.
AeroVironment Risk Analysis
AeroVironment disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AeroVironment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AeroVironment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $12.29B | 70.85 | 10.79% | 0.75% | 10.46% | 29.10% | |
66 Neutral | $9.74B | 32.57 | 11.26% | ― | 15.02% | 319.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.83B | -114.48 | -0.96% | ― | 8.95% | 78.82% | |
56 Neutral | $6.38B | 212.77 | 7.89% | ― | 44.21% | 417.85% | |
54 Neutral | $8.74B | 269.52 | 1.26% | ― | 21.82% | 34.38% | |
52 Neutral | $7.56B | -32.26 | -6.05% | ― | 140.89% | -448.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AVAV
AeroVironment
149.37
-118.58
-44.25%
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AeroVironment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AeroVironment announces board transition and succession plans
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 23, 2026, AeroVironment director Stephen F. Page notified the board that he will retire and not seek re-election when his current term ends at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, anticipated for September 24, 2026. He ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
AeroVironment Reports Record Revenue After Transformational Year
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
AeroVironment reported that fiscal 2026 was a transformational year, driven by its largest acquisition to date and significant investments to diversify its portfolio in areas aligned with priority defense needs. For the fourth quarter and year end...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Adds Former Deputy Defense Secretary to Board
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
AeroVironment, Inc., a U.S.-listed defense technology specialist, designs and deploys autonomous systems, loitering munitions, counter-UAS tools, space-based platforms, directed energy solutions, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities acros...
Executive/Board Changes
AeroVironment board reshaped as two directors resign
Neutral
Jun 22, 2026
On June 16, 2026, AeroVironment directors David Wodlinger and Henry Albers submitted their resignations from the company’s board, effective June 17, 2026, stating the moves were not due to any disagreements with management or company policie...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.