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American Public Education
(NASDAQ:APEI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▼(-2.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
APEI scores well on improving fundamentals and a positive earnings update (raised full-year guidance, margin expansion, and strong free cash flow with reduced leverage). The score is held back by weaker technical setup (below major moving averages, negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18.9 with no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive, solid operating and net margins shows that APEI has materially improved earnings quality after its earlier loss period. If maintained, stronger profitability can fund investment, support resilience, and provide a durable base for future earnings growth.
Negative Factors
Modest Revenue Growth
Revenue growth remains modest relative to the company's longer-term ambitions, making the current earnings improvement more dependent on margins than enrollment expansion. Historical losses and volatility also indicate that profitability could weaken materially if operating conditions or student demand deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive, solid operating and net margins shows that APEI has materially improved earnings quality after its earlier loss period. If maintained, stronger profitability can fund investment, support resilience, and provide a durable base for future earnings growth.
Read all positive factors
American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$872.43M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)245.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth3.64%
EPS Growth129.52%
CountryUS
Employees5,841
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.51
Shares Outstanding18,301,542
10 Day Avg. Volume178,664
30 Day Avg. Volume245,961
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio14.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.20Price Target Upside35.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$693.75M
American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI), along with its affiliated entities, delivers higher learning opportunities accessible both online and at physical campuses. The organization operates through three principal divisions: the American Public Un...
How the Company Makes Money
APEI generates revenue primarily from student tuition and fees across its institutions. The largest driver is tuition earned as students enroll in and complete courses in online and hybrid degree/certificate programs (including APUS and its nursin...
American Public Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed primarily positive momentum: top-line growth, materially higher adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, a completed institutional combination unlocking regulatory and strategic benefits, a strong balance sheet and operating cash flow, and upgraded full-year guidance. The principal negatives are manageable near-term issues—active-duty enrollment headwinds tied to geopolitical events, higher cost-per-lead in non-core online segments that management is actively addressing, a timing-related quarter-to-quarter revenue/EBITDA shift, and a leadership change in Health+. Overall, the positive operational and financial progress and the completion of strategic milestones outweigh the challenges noted.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose 5.5% year-over-year to $171.7 million in 2Q26; on a comparable basis excluding $3.4 million of prior-year Graduate School USA revenue, revenue growth was 7.8% YoY.
Negative Updates
Active Duty Enrollment Headwinds
Active duty channels (Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) have been challenged by deployments related to the Middle East conflict, causing enrollment disruptions and stopouts; management included these headwinds in 2026 guidance and characterizes them as event-driven rather than structural.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue rose 5.5% year-over-year to $171.7 million in 2Q26; on a comparable basis excluding $3.4 million of prior-year Graduate School USA revenue, revenue growth was 7.8% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue of $690–$698M (prior $686–$696M), adjusted EBITDA of $96–$104M (prior $93–$102M), net income available to common of $46.5–$52.5M (prior $44.9–$51.6M), and diluted EPS of $2.48–$2.79 (prior $2.33–$2.68), while lowering CapEx to $25–$28M (prior $28–$32M); third‑quarter guidance is revenue $164.5–$167M, adjusted EBITDA $14–$17M (including a ~ $4M timing anomaly and marketing optimization costs), net income $3.4–$5.4M, and diluted EPS $0.18–$0.29. Guidance reflects an assumed Military net registration run‑rate of 101k–103k (up 1%–3% y/y), Health enrollment of ~19,100 (up ~3% y/y) with ~7% campus growth, and a monthly‑start timing shift that moves ~ $6M of Military+ revenue and ~ $4M of adjusted EBITDA into Q4; management reiterated its 2029 ambition of $890M–$1B revenue and 20%–21% adjusted EBITDA margins (targeting an 8%–12% revenue CAGR).American Public Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 668.01M | 648.86M | 624.56M | 600.54M | 606.33M | 418.80M |
| Gross Profit | 364.81M | 335.69M | 328.86M | 307.68M | 317.86M | 246.18M |
| EBITDA | 83.02M | 64.08M | 52.37M | -25.73M | -101.39M | 47.37M |
| Net Income | 45.67M | 31.56M | 16.11M | -47.29M | -114.99M | 17.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 537.75M | 543.43M | 570.10M | 557.39M | 685.25M | 725.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 76.26M | 176.50M | 131.93M | 116.66M | 129.46M | 122.63M |
| Total Debt | 147.84M | 162.96M | 200.62M | 204.73M | 208.97M | 257.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 223.69M | 248.65M | 266.22M | 265.41M | 335.52M | 310.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 314.06M | 294.78M | 303.88M | 291.98M | 349.73M | 415.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 70.07M | 46.10M | 27.79M | 31.62M | 12.83M | 4.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.60M | 61.97M | 48.87M | 45.51M | 29.21M | 16.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -93.73M | 4.80M | -21.08M | -13.77M | -13.67M | -336.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.90M | -49.21M | -13.19M | -16.86M | -35.71M | 242.34M |
American Public Education Technical Analysis
Neutral
46.01
Price Trends
45.43
Positive
48.75
Negative
49.66
Negative
Market Momentum
1.04
Negative
54.78
Neutral
35.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.85, above the 50-day MA of 45.43, and below the 200-day MA of 49.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for APEI.
American Public Education Risk Analysis
American Public Education disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Public Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $872.43M | 18.99 | 15.30% | ― | 3.64% | 129.52% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $613.49M | -19.03 | -26.91% | ― | 24.86% | 48.69% | |
59 Neutral | $674.40M | 28.73 | 11.59% | 6.19% | 22.02% | 57.98% | |
50 Neutral | $2.30B | 94.15 | -8.24% | ― | 10.03% | -27.61% | |
46 Neutral | $79.78M | -1.47 | -41.94% | ― | -47.59% | 81.39% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
APEI
American Public Education
47.67
12.70
36.32%
LINC
Lincoln Edu
21.26
-1.24
-5.51%
CHGG
Chegg
0.72
-0.53
-42.56%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
2.61
-0.42
-13.86%
DAO
Youdao
19.10
8.28
76.52%
American Public Education Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Public Education Unifies Institutions Under Single System
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, American Public Education, Inc. consolidated American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing into a single institution under the American Public University System name. The Higher Learning...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.