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Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial strength (notably a debt-free balance sheet and strong ROE) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are partly offset by weak technicals (trading below major moving averages with soft momentum) and a key fundamental watch item: recent margin compression and uneven cash-flow consistency, despite generally positive earnings-call commentary on growth and underwriting discipline.
Positive Factors
Debt-free Balance Sheet
A debt-free balance sheet materially reduces financial risk and preserves capital flexibility. Over months this supports steady capital returns, allows disciplined buybacks/dividends, and provides a durable buffer versus underwriting volatility or reserve stress without needing external financing.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Sustained margin erosion reduces the underwriting cushion against claims and expense shocks. If gross and operating margins remain compressed for 2–6 months, pricing or investment returns must compensate, increasing sensitivity to claim inflation and lowering sustainable underwriting profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt-free Balance Sheet
A debt-free balance sheet materially reduces financial risk and preserves capital flexibility. Over months this supports steady capital returns, allows disciplined buybacks/dividends, and provides a durable buffer versus underwriting volatility or reserve stress without needing external financing.
Read all positive factors
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$582.62M
Dividend Yield8.6%
Average Volume (3M)222.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth9.54%
EPS Growth-5.60%
CountryUS
Employees362
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.50
Shares Outstanding18,703,772
10 Day Avg. Volume182,233
30 Day Avg. Volume222,548
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.30
P/FCF Ratio81.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.00Price Target Upside-5.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$333.74M
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating as an insurance holding company, AMERISAFE, Inc. specializes in providing workers' compensation coverage across the United States. Its policies offer crucial financial protection to injured employees, addressing costs related to temporar...
How the Company Makes Money
AMERISAFE primarily makes money through its insurance operations by (1) collecting insurance premiums and (2) earning investment income on the assets (the “float”) generated from those premiums while claims are paid over time.
1) Net earned premi...
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operating performance with meaningful premium growth, a strong ROE (23.5%), robust audit activity, favorable reserve development and continued capital returns. Headwinds include a decline in operating net income, a modest drop in statutory surplus, persistent medical inflation, heightened competition and a small one-time bad debt hit. Management emphasized disciplined underwriting and capital management, positioning the company to navigate the softening market.Positive Updates
Sustained Premium Growth
Gross written premiums increased 7.9% to $86.0M (from $79.7M). Net premiums earned rose 11.4% to $77.3M (from $69.4M). Voluntary premiums on policies written increased 5.7% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Operating Net Income Decline
Operating net income decreased to $8.3M ($0.44 diluted) from $10.0M ($0.53) in Q2 2025, a decline of approximately 17%, driven in part by higher underwriting/other items and one-time charges.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sustained Premium Growth
Gross written premiums increased 7.9% to $86.0M (from $79.7M). Net premiums earned rose 11.4% to $77.3M (from $69.4M). Voluntary premiums on policies written increased 5.7% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized disciplined, profitable growth and strong capital management—targeting a mid-single-digit organic growth trajectory—while balancing underwriting discipline and operational efficiency; they cited nine consecutive quarters of premium growth with net premiums earned up 11.4% to $77.3M and gross written premiums up 7.9% to $86M (voluntary premiums +5.7%), audit premiums contributing $4.1M (vs. $1.5M prior), a return on average equity of 23.5%, current accident‑year loss ratio of 72%, $7.3M of favorable reserve development from AY'23 and prior, net income of $14.6M ($0.78/share) and operating net income of $8.3M ($0.44/share), an expense ratio of 31.8% (including a one‑time ~$700k bad‑debt write‑off they don’t expect to recur), net investment income of $6.5M, approximately $771M of investments and cash with a 4.2‑year duration and a tax‑equivalent book yield of 3.9% (up 6 bps), statutory surplus of $200.8M, book value per share of $13.49 (+0.7% YTD), and continued capital returns including repurchasing ~181,000 shares for ~$5.6M at an average $30.58.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 335.64M | 317.25M | 309.11M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M |
| Gross Profit | 86.71M | 147.31M | 128.09M | 135.20M | 142.38M | 155.22M |
| EBITDA | 30.68M | 59.59M | 70.15M | 0.00 | 68.95M | 80.47M |
| Net Income | 46.98M | 47.15M | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.48M | 149.36M | 130.55M | 133.43M | 396.71M | 469.92M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 877.30M | 878.95M | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 249.99M | 251.60M | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.31M | 8.92M | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.40M | 11.07M | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 65.60M | 68.42M | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -68.99M | -61.61M | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Negative
34.00
Price Trends
32.03
Negative
32.04
Negative
34.81
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
35.17
Neutral
21.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.81, above the 50-day MA of 32.03, and below the 200-day MA of 34.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $582.62M | 12.10 | 17.85% | 6.64% | 9.54% | -5.60% | |
71 Outperform | $728.48M | 6.15 | 27.46% | ― | 20.77% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $901.02M | 149.97 | 0.83% | 2.94% | 0.41% | -91.81% | |
63 Neutral | $670.63M | 31.93 | 6.01% | 1.31% | -47.59% | -58.70% | |
57 Neutral | $209.45M | 9.83 | 4.48% | 0.63% | -1.78% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AMSF
Amerisafe
30.24
-10.38
-25.56%
EIG
Employers Holdings
49.49
5.43
12.33%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
17.56
-3.67
-17.28%
JRVR
James River Group
4.52
-1.13
-19.96%
HIPO
Hippo Holdings
27.43
0.60
2.24%
Amerisafe Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Amerisafe shareholders back leadership but reject officer protections
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
At its annual meeting of shareholders held on June 10, 2026, at its DeRidder, Louisiana headquarters, AMERISAFE shareholders elected three directors, Michael J. Brown, G. Janelle Frost and Sean M. Traynor, to terms expiring at the 2029 annual meet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.