Want to see AMSF full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Amerisafe
(NASDAQ:AMSF)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(14.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/24/26
AMSF scores well primarily due to its high-quality, debt-free financial profile and attractive shareholder returns (low P/E and ~10% dividend yield). The main offset is recent margin compression and uneven cash-flow consistency, while technicals are mixed (short-term strength but still below longer-term moving averages and showing overbought signals). Earnings call commentary was broadly constructive on growth and reserves, but highlighted competitive and cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet and Strong ROE
A debt-free balance sheet gives AMERISAFE substantial financial flexibility and reduces exposure to interest costs or refinancing pressure. Sustained high returns on equity despite minimal leverage indicate that underwriting and investment operations have generated strong profitability from the company’s capital base.
Negative Factors
Recent Margin Compression
The sharp decline in gross and operating margins shows that recent premium growth is translating less efficiently into operating profit. If the lower margins persist, AMERISAFE may have less capacity to absorb claims inflation, invest in growth, or maintain historical profitability levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet and Strong ROE
A debt-free balance sheet gives AMERISAFE substantial financial flexibility and reduces exposure to interest costs or refinancing pressure. Sustained high returns on equity despite minimal leverage indicate that underwriting and investment operations have generated strong profitability from the company’s capital base.
Read all positive factors
Amerisafe (AMSF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$487.68M
Dividend Yield9.96%
Average Volume (3M)522.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth9.54%
EPS Growth-5.60%
CountryUS
Employees366
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.50
Shares Outstanding18,536,058
10 Day Avg. Volume347,605
30 Day Avg. Volume522,437
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.30
P/FCF Ratio81.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.50Price Target Upside28.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$333.13M
Amerisafe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating as an insurance holding company, AMERISAFE, Inc. specializes in providing workers' compensation coverage across the United States. Its policies offer crucial financial protection to injured employees, addressing costs related to temporar...
How the Company Makes Money
AMERISAFE primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income. Underwriting income is generated by collecting insurance premiums for workers’ compensation policies and related coverages, then paying out claims and incur...
Amerisafe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operating performance with meaningful premium growth, a strong ROE (23.5%), robust audit activity, favorable reserve development and continued capital returns. Headwinds include a decline in operating net income, a modest drop in statutory surplus, persistent medical inflation, heightened competition and a small one-time bad debt hit. Management emphasized disciplined underwriting and capital management, positioning the company to navigate the softening market.Positive Updates
Sustained Premium Growth
Gross written premiums increased 7.9% to $86.0M (from $79.7M). Net premiums earned rose 11.4% to $77.3M (from $69.4M). Voluntary premiums on policies written increased 5.7% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Operating Net Income Decline
Operating net income decreased to $8.3M ($0.44 diluted) from $10.0M ($0.53) in Q2 2025, a decline of approximately 17%, driven in part by higher underwriting/other items and one-time charges.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sustained Premium Growth
Gross written premiums increased 7.9% to $86.0M (from $79.7M). Net premiums earned rose 11.4% to $77.3M (from $69.4M). Voluntary premiums on policies written increased 5.7% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized disciplined, profitable growth and strong capital management—targeting a mid-single-digit organic growth trajectory—while balancing underwriting discipline and operational efficiency; they cited nine consecutive quarters of premium growth with net premiums earned up 11.4% to $77.3M and gross written premiums up 7.9% to $86M (voluntary premiums +5.7%), audit premiums contributing $4.1M (vs. $1.5M prior), a return on average equity of 23.5%, current accident‑year loss ratio of 72%, $7.3M of favorable reserve development from AY'23 and prior, net income of $14.6M ($0.78/share) and operating net income of $8.3M ($0.44/share), an expense ratio of 31.8% (including a one‑time ~$700k bad‑debt write‑off they don’t expect to recur), net investment income of $6.5M, approximately $771M of investments and cash with a 4.2‑year duration and a tax‑equivalent book yield of 3.9% (up 6 bps), statutory surplus of $200.8M, book value per share of $13.49 (+0.7% YTD), and continued capital returns including repurchasing ~181,000 shares for ~$5.6M at an average $30.58.Amerisafe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 335.64M | 317.25M | 309.11M | 306.91M | 294.69M | 316.01M |
| Gross Profit | 86.71M | 147.31M | 128.09M | 135.20M | 142.38M | 155.22M |
| EBITDA | 30.86M | 59.59M | 70.15M | 0.00 | 68.95M | 80.47M |
| Net Income | 46.98M | 47.15M | 55.44M | 62.11M | 55.60M | 65.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.48M | 149.36M | 130.55M | 133.43M | 396.71M | 469.92M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 877.30M | 878.95M | 900.45M | 936.71M | 951.85M | 1.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 249.99M | 251.60M | 257.34M | 292.45M | 317.43M | 399.32M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.31M | 8.92M | 23.35M | 29.29M | 26.11M | 36.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.40M | 11.07M | 24.19M | 29.84M | 28.19M | 37.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 65.60M | 68.42M | 72.37M | 43.88M | 75.43M | 70.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -68.99M | -61.61M | -91.20M | -96.51M | -112.87M | -99.97M |
Amerisafe Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.14
Price Trends
24.97
Positive
28.06
Negative
30.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
65.59
Neutral
90.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMSF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.62, above the 50-day MA of 24.97, and below the 200-day MA of 30.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMSF.
Amerisafe Risk Analysis
Amerisafe disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amerisafe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amerisafe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $487.68M | 10.52 | 18.37% | 9.96% | 9.54% | -5.60% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $606.63M | 1.56 | 68.25% | 1.47% | -73.08% | -226.17% | |
60 Neutral | $935.38M | 75.48 | 0.82% | 2.53% | -5.83% | -82.97% | |
55 Neutral | $183.61M | 7.95 | 4.68% | 1.01% | -1.82% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $213.99M | -1.30 | -18.99% | 1.90% | 7.99% | -698.73% |
* Financial Sector Average
AMSF
Amerisafe
26.31
-11.77
-30.91%
EIG
Employers Holdings
52.08
12.08
30.19%
OSG
Octave Specialty Group
4.75
-3.78
-44.31%
TIPT
Tiptree Financial
16.29
-1.29
-7.32%
JRVR
James River Group
3.97
-1.40
-26.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.