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Alaska Air
(NYSE:ALK)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-23.84% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM losses, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary adds some offset from demand and revenue-mix momentum, but near-term loss guidance and fuel/cost headwinds keep the outlook constrained; valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue and unit-revenue growth
Revenue is growing materially faster than capacity, while unit revenue and yield are also improving. This indicates stronger pricing and network monetization, giving Alaska a durable foundation to expand earnings once current cost pressures moderate and supporting better operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The return to operating and net losses shows that revenue growth is not currently converting into durable earnings. Compressed margins reduce internal funding capacity and leave results more exposed to cost volatility, making sustained profitability dependent on improved revenue quality and disciplined execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and unit-revenue growth
Revenue is growing materially faster than capacity, while unit revenue and yield are also improving. This indicates stronger pricing and network monetization, giving Alaska a durable foundation to expand earnings once current cost pressures moderate and supporting better operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Alaska Air Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles Capacity
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlaska Air (ALK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.84B
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)3.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth8.23%
EPS Growth-370.75%
CountryUS
Employees31,787
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.53
Shares Outstanding111,603,120
10 Day Avg. Volume5,458,238
30 Day Avg. Volume3,899,175
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.55Price Target Upside21.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.80B
Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alaska Air Group, Inc. operates via its subsidiaries, providing comprehensive air transportation solutions for both passengers and freight. Its business is organized into three principal segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The airline exten...
How the Company Makes Money
Alaska Air Group primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related travel services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue, generated from ticket sales across its network and fare products; this includes revenue from both ma...
Alaska Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented strong demand, revenue growth, premium and loyalty momentum, international expansion, and progress toward a more diversified business model. However, these positives were offset by significant near-term fuel costs, substantial expected losses, Hawaii pressure, higher nonfuel costs, lower capacity, and balance-sheet concerns. Management remained confident in the longer-term strategy, but the near-term financial outlook was materially challenged.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Improved Unit Revenue Spread
Third-quarter total revenue was $4.3 billion, up 14% year over year while capacity grew 2.4%. Unit revenue increased nearly 12%, yield grew 13.4%, and September yield was up approximately 17% year over year. The RASM-to-CASM ex spread improved to 7 points from 2 points in the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Third-Quarter Net Loss
Alaska reported a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $147 million, or a $1.32 loss per share. Excluding special items and the impact of a revised tax rate, adjusted net income was $40 million and adjusted earnings per share was $0.36.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Improved Unit Revenue Spread
Third-quarter total revenue was $4.3 billion, up 14% year over year while capacity grew 2.4%. Unit revenue increased nearly 12%, yield grew 13.4%, and September yield was up approximately 17% year over year. The RASM-to-CASM ex spread improved to 7 points from 2 points in the second quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, Alaska expects capacity growth of approximately 1% to 1.5% year over year, unit revenue performance broadly in line with the third quarter, up low double digits, economic fuel cost to average between $4.65 and $4.85 per gallon, nonfuel unit costs to grow mid-single digits against capacity growth of less than 1.5%, a healthy positive spread to persist, and an adjusted loss per share of between $2.50 $2.00; for the full year, it expects an adjusted loss per share of between $5.50 $5.00. Alaska expects at least $3 to $4 of core earnings improvement next year, is focused on a long-term cost growth rate in the 4% range and diversified revenues of up to 60%, and is targeting a 40% premium revenue mix by 2030, 15 nonstop international routes from Seattle and Seattle’s number 1 long haul international carrier position by 2030, continued strong annual program cash growth through 2030, and tripling cargo revenues by the end of the decade.Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.30B | 14.24B | 11.73B | 10.43B | 9.65B | 6.18B |
| Gross Profit | 11.16B | 8.49B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.13B | 817.00M |
| EBITDA | 582.00M | 1.29B | 1.47B | 1.27B | 1.12B | 137.00M |
| Net Income | -395.00M | 100.00M | 395.00M | 235.00M | 58.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.03B | 20.36B | 19.77B | 15.83B | 15.35B | 14.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.23B | 2.12B | 2.48B | 1.79B | 2.42B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 7.30B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 3.82B | 3.78B | 4.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.50B | 16.24B | 15.40B | 11.72B | 11.53B | 11.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.53B | 4.12B | 4.37B | 4.11B | 3.82B | 3.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -650.00M | -339.00M | 183.00M | -444.00M | -253.00M | 738.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 940.00M | 1.25B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -1.62B | -634.00M | -964.00M | -1.22B | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 658.00M | -199.00M | 119.00M | -147.00M | -325.00M | -914.00M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Negative
43.33
Price Trends
39.82
Negative
43.91
Negative
44.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.78
Positive
35.14
Neutral
26.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.49, above the 50-day MA of 39.82, and below the 200-day MA of 44.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALK.
Alaska Air Risk Analysis
Alaska Air disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alaska Air reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alaska Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $50.51B | 15.23 | 15.40% | 1.05% | 14.11% | -29.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $31.82B | 8.96 | 21.81% | ― | 12.31% | 9.08% | |
59 Neutral | $20.44B | 19.79 | 14.39% | 1.72% | 14.49% | 205.66% | |
45 Neutral | $990.44M | -1.09 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% | |
44 Neutral | $3.84B | -9.75 | -10.50% | 2.16% | 8.23% | -370.75% | |
43 Neutral | $8.02B | -16.59 | 12.03% | 1.41% | 12.32% | -179.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALK
Alaska Air
34.40
-10.38
-23.18%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
76.78
16.97
28.37%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
2.63
-2.09
-44.39%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
41.75
10.07
31.77%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
97.93
-0.87
-0.88%
AAL
American Airlines
12.11
-1.30
-9.69%
Alaska Air Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alaska Air Posts Q3 Loss Amid Fuel Cost Surge
Negative
Oct 20, 2026
Alaska Air Group reported third-quarter 2026 results showing a GAAP net loss of $147 million, or $1.32 per share, with adjusted net income of $49 million, or $0.36 per share, excluding certain tax impacts, as revenue rose 14% to $4.3 billion on 2....
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Alaska Air Accelerate Plan Shifts to Global Premium Growth
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
On Sept. 29, 2026, Alaska Air Group used its Investor Day in Seattle to declare that its Alaska Accelerate plan has moved from integration to activation, as the combined Alaska and Hawaiian operation targets a more global, premium and diversified ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Reports Q2 Loss Amid Fuel Cost Surge
Negative
Jul 21, 2026
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Alaska Air Group reported a GAAP pretax margin of negative 5.3% and a net loss of $76 million, as an 85% surge in fuel costs added about $600 million in expenses despite 10% revenue growth to $4.1 billion and a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.