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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)
NASDAQ:AKBA
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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) AI Stock Analysis

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AKBA

Akebia Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:AKBA)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-28.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals—especially strong operating/free cash flow and better operating profitability—tempered by weak revenue momentum and ongoing net losses. Earnings call and corporate updates are moderately supportive due to accelerating Vafseo adoption and strong VOICE interim results, while valuation remains challenged by negative earnings and limited technical data reduces confidence in near-term price trend signals.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Akebia converted to strong operating and free cash flow (TTM ~ $60M) and held ~$162.6M cash as of March‑31, 2026, providing durable funding for commercialization and multiple pipeline readouts. This reduces near‑term financing need, supports execution of Vafseo rollouts and clinical programs, and materially lowers short‑term dilution risk while management pursues growth.
Negative Factors
Auryxia generic erosion
Auryxia is experiencing durable revenue erosion from generic entry, with management expecting continued declines in 2026. Loss of this legacy cashflow increases pressure on overall revenue and makes the business dependent on the speed and scale of Vafseo's commercialization to sustain R&D and operations, elevating execution risk if Vafseo growth stalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Akebia converted to strong operating and free cash flow (TTM ~ $60M) and held ~$162.6M cash as of March‑31, 2026, providing durable funding for commercialization and multiple pipeline readouts. This reduces near‑term financing need, supports execution of Vafseo rollouts and clinical programs, and materially lowers short‑term dilution risk while management pursues growth.
Read all positive factors

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., established in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and commercializing therapies for patients suffering from kidney diseases. The firm's leading exper...
How the Company Makes Money
Akebia makes money primarily through commercialization-related revenue from its kidney-disease products and through collaboration/partnering economics. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: revenue from sales of Vafseo (vadadustat) in ma...

Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Vafseo (32% revenue growth, ~60% patient growth quarter-over-quarter, higher prescriber engagement and improved adherence under observed dosing) and meaningful pipeline progress with supportive clinical data and upcoming readouts. However, legacy product Auryxia faces notable generic-driven revenue decline (≈-17%), the company swung to a net loss in the quarter, experienced sizable inventory write-downs and higher operating expenses, and cash declined q/q. While the launch and clinical developments are encouraging and provide a clear growth narrative, the near-term financial headwinds and competitive/enrollment risks temper the outlook.
Positive Updates
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total revenues were $53.5M in Q1 2026 versus $57.3M in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.8M or approximately -6.6% year-over-year, driven by lower Auryxia revenues despite higher Vafseo sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Akebia’s call guided to continued commercial and pipeline execution: Q1’26 total revenues were $53.5M with Vafseo net product revenue of $15.8M (highest quarter-to-date; +32% YoY from $12.0M) and Auryxia $36.2M (down from $43.8M), license/collab revenues $1.6M; Vafseo patients grew to nearly 7,500 (≈60% QoQ), ~1,025 prescribers (+28% vs Q4’25) with ~30% from non‑USRC dialysis organizations, ~2/3 of patients on 3x/week dosing and first‑refill adherence ≈86% (85–90% range); cash was $162.6M (vs $184.8M 12/31/25) and expected to fund operations ≥2 years; company expects TDAPA opportunity for the balance of 2026 and bundle entry planning for 2027, anticipates Auryxia revenues to decline in 2026, and reiterated pipeline milestones—VOCAL topline by year‑end 2026, VOICE early 2027, AKB‑9090 Phase I (up to 70 participants) topline early 2027, praliciguat Phase II targeting ~60 patients, and AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2’26 with initial data in 2027.

Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operating performance and cash generation have improved meaningfully (positive EBIT and strong operating/free cash flow), but revenue is roughly flat to slightly down and the company remains net-loss making. The balance sheet is less levered than prior periods, yet still not robust given limited equity and negative returns.
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue232.40M236.20M160.18M194.62M292.48M211.65M
Gross Profit187.95M196.73M97.00M120.47M269.99M130.16M
EBITDA-5.76M21.73M-13.72M-8.27M3.06M-189.91M
Net Income-20.51M-5.34M-69.41M-51.92M-94.23M-282.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets362.52M376.56M220.67M241.70M356.05M529.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments162.64M184.84M51.87M42.92M90.47M149.80M
Total Debt12.49M216.30M188.73M104.18M99.78M189.13M
Total Liabilities335.14M343.95M269.86M272.29M350.82M455.34M
Stockholders Equity27.38M32.61M-49.19M-30.58M5.23M74.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow60.01M67.99M-40.69M-23.38M-73.27M-253.02M
Operating Cash Flow60.37M67.99M-40.66M-23.38M-73.15M-252.97M
Investing Cash Flow-8.14M-7.93M-33.00K0.00-114.00K39.94M
Financing Cash Flow-2.94M72.93M49.66M-25.21M14.60M133.73M

Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.40
Price Trends
50DMA
1.13
Positive
100DMA
1.24
Negative
200DMA
1.62
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
66.01
Neutral
STOCH
68.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.03, above the 50-day MA of 1.13, and below the 200-day MA of 1.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AKBA.

Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$877.45M7.4843.85%68.20%
60
Neutral
$5.14B-35.65-25.99%54.61%
59
Neutral
$1.61B-9.82-48.98%6.28%
58
Neutral
$332.64M-16.08-62.72%25.69%64.06%
58
Neutral
$1.69B-3.21-53.31%213.96%25.74%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
46
Neutral
$613.18M-3.697.40%190.52%12.60%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
1.24
-2.38
-65.75%
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics
85.21
72.61
576.27%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
16.93
5.78
51.84%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
10.04
4.77
90.51%
PROK
ProKidney
2.03
1.42
232.79%
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.
34.67
14.50
71.89%

Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Akebia Reports Positive Interim VOICE Trial Results
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics and U.S. Renal Care reported interim results from the VOICE trial, a 2,116-patient, randomized, open-label study in in-center hemodialysis patients with CKD-related anemia. The trial evaluated the safety of Va...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Akebia Shareholders Approve Governance Measures and Share Increase
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 17, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics shareholders re-elected Adrian Adams, Michael Rogers and LeAnne M. Zumwalt as Class III directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 30, 2026