Agilon Health (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $468.30M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 10.12%
• EPS Growth: -29.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,076
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 414,423,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,251,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,521,484
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.24
• 1Y Price Target: $1.21
• Price Target Upside: 7.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-11.50% Downside)

Agilon Health's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, with negative profitability and declining revenues. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to ongoing losses. The earnings call provided some strategic insights but was overshadowed by disappointing results and guidance withdrawal.

Positive Factors

Conservative Leverage

A conservative leverage position provides financial stability and reduces the risk of financial distress, allowing the company to focus on long-term strategic initiatives without the burden of high debt levels.

Strong Quality Metrics

Superior quality metrics enhance the company's reputation and competitive position, potentially leading to increased partnerships and patient trust, which are crucial for long-term growth in the healthcare sector.

Improved Data Platform

Enhanced data capabilities can streamline operations and improve care coordination, leading to better patient outcomes and operational efficiencies, which are critical for sustaining growth in value-based care models.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability

Negative profitability indicates operational inefficiencies and challenges in generating shareholder returns, which can hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and maintain competitive positioning.

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue and negative margins suggest operational challenges and competitive pressures, which could impact the company's ability to sustain its business model and achieve long-term growth.

Guidance Withdrawal

Withdrawing guidance reflects uncertainty and potential strategic misalignment, which can undermine investor confidence and hinder the company's ability to effectively plan and execute long-term strategies.

Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Agilon Health generates revenue primarily through its partnerships with Medicare Advantage plans and healthcare providers. The company operates on a value-based care model, receiving payments based on the quality and efficiency of care delivered rather than the volume of services provided. Key revenue streams include care management fees, shared savings from improved patient outcomes, and risk-sharing agreements with payers. Agilon also benefits from technology platform subscriptions and analytics services that enhance the operations of its partner healthcare providers, creating a sustainable and scalable business model focused on improving senior healthcare.

Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agilon Health faces significant financial challenges, marked by ongoing losses and cash flow issues. While revenue growth has been strong, the company struggles with profitability, leading to a negative impact on equity and cash positions. The low leverage provides some financial flexibility, but improving margins and cash generation is critical for future stability.

Income Statement

Agilon Health's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability and growth. The TTM shows a gross profit margin of -0.53%, indicating costs exceed revenues. The net profit margin is -4.04%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been robust historically, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 32% from 2020 to 2025 TTM, yet profitability remains elusive with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in the TTM.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 in the TTM suggests low leverage, which is positive. However, the return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, and the equity ratio has decreased from 66% in 2021 to 26% in the TTM, indicating growing liabilities and reduced equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates weak cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert income into cash, but free cash flow remains negative and volatile. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows a consistent pattern of cash outflows exceeding net income losses, reflecting ongoing cash challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.90B	6.06B	4.32B	2.71B	1.83B	1.22B
Gross Profit	-110.62M	4.84M	69.67M	112.29M	76.41M	94.15M
EBITDA	-297.75M	-218.19M	-167.64M	-72.41M	-383.78M	-40.11M
Net Income	-315.66M	-260.15M	-262.60M	-106.86M	-405.48M	-63.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.71B	1.73B	1.74B	1.70B	1.59B	446.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	327.00M	399.97M	488.34M	908.97M	1.04B	106.80M
Total Debt	41.37M	41.50M	52.31M	43.48M	48.40M	73.21M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.26B	1.08B	656.86M	494.66M	731.09M
Stockholders Equity	408.93M	470.95M	661.84M	1.04B	1.09B	-284.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-70.55M	-71.03M	-187.01M	-163.47M	-161.59M	-55.55M
Operating Cash Flow	-58.36M	-57.78M	-156.20M	-130.81M	-148.16M	-53.20M
Investing Cash Flow	117.61M	139.89M	-44.02M	-444.39M	-90.51M	22.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.17M	-2.58M	-193.13M	28.06M	1.15B	24.62M

Agilon Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, below the 50-day MA of 1.23, and below the 200-day MA of 2.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGL.

Agilon Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTMD	63 Neutral	$147.33M	3.30	-7.92%	―	6.32%	344.42%
INNV	57 Neutral	$679.55M	―	-12.02%	―	11.76%	-42.52%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AMN	49 Neutral	$786.80M	18.62	-40.13%	―	-14.33%	-398.68%
CCRN	49 Neutral	$431.48M	―	-1.96%	―	-24.30%	-210.27%
PIII	48 Neutral	$62.17M	―	-138.17%	―	4.20%	-54.16%
AGL	42 Neutral	$468.30M	―	-60.64%	―	10.12%	-29.12%

Agilon Health Corporate Events

Agilon Health CEO Resignation and Earnings Guidance Suspension

On July 29, 2025, Steven J. Sell resigned as CEO and President of Agilon Health, leading to the establishment of an Office of the Chairman and interim executive officers. This leadership change, along with market challenges, prompted Agilon to suspend its 2025 earnings guidance. The company’s second-quarter results showed a 6% revenue decline and significant losses, attributed to market exits and reduced risk adjustment revenue. Agilon continues to focus on strategic initiatives to improve performance and expects to benefit from these efforts in the future.

Agilon Health Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting

On May 28, 2025, Agilon Health held its annual meeting of stockholders where Silvana Battaglia and Sharad Mansukani, M.D. were elected as Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, stockholders ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved, on a non-binding basis, the executive compensation for the company’s named officers.