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Adyen
(OTC:ADYEY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-31.10% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/05/26
The score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high margins, low leverage) but held back by weakening recent cash-flow performance and a clearly negative technical setup (price below key moving averages, negative MACD). Valuation is moderate-to-premium (P/E 26.6) without dividend support, while KPI commentary suggests continued growth drivers but with FX/macro risks and limited explicit earnings-call detail.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Adyen's sustained high EBITDA margin (55% in H2 2025) and a stated target to exceed 55% by 2028 indicate durable operating leverage. Persistent margin strength supports long-term cash generation, reinvestment in products and scalable growth while insulating returns across cycles.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Volatility
A roughly 76% YoY decline in free cash flow in 2025 marks a significant deterioration in cash-conversion. That volatility reduces near-term funding flexibility for investments or returns, increases reliance on operating performance, and raises execution risk until conversion stabilizes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Adyen's sustained high EBITDA margin (55% in H2 2025) and a stated target to exceed 55% by 2028 indicate durable operating leverage. Persistent margin strength supports long-term cash generation, reinvestment in products and scalable growth while insulating returns across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Adyen Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue
Indicates the total income generated from all services after deducting returns and allowances, highlighting the company's ability to generate sales and its overall financial health.
Indicates the total income generated from all services after deducting returns and allowances, highlighting the company's ability to generate sales and its overall financial health.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdyen (ADYEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$30.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)602.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth23.66%
EPS Growth18.74%
CountryUS
Employees4,771
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding3,168,355,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,417,078
30 Day Avg. Volume602,176
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.93
Price to Book (P/B)8.10
Price to Sales (P/S)16.68
P/FCF Ratio47.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.28B
Adyen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adyen N.V. provides a global payment processing solution, operating across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Its integrated platform combines essential payment functionalities such as gateway serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Adyen primarily makes money by charging fees for payment processing and related services delivered through its unified payments platform. Its core revenue stream is payments revenue from merchants for facilitating transactions across multiple chan...
Adyen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a solid operational and financial picture: strong constant-currency net revenue growth (21% in H2), healthy EBITDA expansion (23%) and a high EBITDA margin (55%), plus product innovation (Dynamic Identification/Personalize) and broad regional/pillar traction (Platforms fastest-growing, Unified Commerce and major new logos like Starbucks). Headwinds include FX impact on reported growth, APAC tariff-related volume pressure, near-term margin dilution from incremental hiring and that agentic commerce remains early/immaterial to 2026 revenue. On balance the company reiterated a credible 2026 guide (20%–22% C-currency growth), disciplined CapEx (~5%), and a clear multi-year margin target (>55% by 2028). Given the predominance of growth, margin and product/market positives relative to the identified near-term risks and investor concerns, the overall tone is constructive and long-term positive.Positive Updates
Strong Net Revenue Growth (H2 2025)
Net revenue in H2 2025 grew 21% on a constant-currency basis; reported growth was lower due to U.S. dollar headwinds.
Negative Updates
Currency Headwinds Lowered Reported Growth
Reported revenue growth in H2 was negatively affected by U.S. dollar strength versus constant-currency results, with FX headwinds expected to continue into Q1 of 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Revenue Growth (H2 2025)
Net revenue in H2 2025 grew 21% on a constant-currency basis; reported growth was lower due to U.S. dollar headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Adyen guided 2026 net revenue growth of 20–22% on a constant‑currency basis (a view taken from end‑of‑year customer road‑map conversations), after reporting H2 2025 net revenue growth of 21% CC (reported growth muted by U.S. dollar headwinds), H2 EBITDA growth of 23% and an H2 EBITDA margin of 55%; management expects 2026 EBITDA margin to be roughly in line with 2025 as they modestly increase headcount (slightly above this year’s hiring pace) while continuing to invest in automation, and to expand EBITDA margin to above 55% by 2028, with CapEx expected to remain at ~5% (≤5%) of net revenue and market‑volume growth assumed to stay at 2025 levels (currency headwinds are expected to ease through Q2–Q3).Adyen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.57B | 2.23B | 1.63B | 1.33B | 1.00B |
| Gross Profit | 2.01B | 1.99B | 1.01B | 948.92M | 759.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.48B | 1.36B | 1.03B | 693.08M | 610.05M |
| Net Income | 1.02B | 925.16M | 698.32M | 564.14M | 469.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.25B | 11.43B | 9.57B | 7.62B | 5.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.82B | 9.88B | 8.31B | 6.52B | 4.62B |
| Total Debt | 252.37M | 228.26M | 223.06M | 203.07M | 142.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.97B | 7.19B | 6.42B | 5.20B | 3.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.28B | 4.23B | 3.15B | 2.41B | 1.81B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 904.63M | 1.60B | 1.80B | 1.93B | 1.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 1.70B | 1.87B | 2.02B | 1.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -129.54M | -118.62M | -69.74M | -87.69M | -42.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.88M | 70.60M | -20.61M | -12.22M | 96.24M |
Adyen Technical Analysis
Negative
16.69
Price Trends
10.14
Negative
10.44
Negative
13.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Negative
45.24
Neutral
57.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADYEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.66, above the 50-day MA of 10.14, and above the 200-day MA of 13.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADYEY.
Adyen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.40B | 35.39 | 10.01% | ― | 7.19% | -36.03% | |
76 Outperform | $48.52B | 61.49 | 3.64% | ― | 2.27% | -69.08% | |
75 Outperform | $17.59B | 42.97 | 20.74% | ― | 23.44% | 151.36% | |
72 Outperform | $26.74B | 66.15 | 11.17% | ― | 32.33% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $96.76B | -1,118.04 | -6.23% | ― | 31.55% | -4.50% | |
66 Neutral | $30.95B | 24.70 | 21.33% | ― | 23.66% | 18.74% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADYEY
Adyen
9.53
-8.60
-47.42%
XYZ
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PAYO
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7.12
0.31
4.55%
AFRM
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76.07
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10.41%
TOST
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30.08
-16.44
-35.34%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.