Airbnb downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley on ‘supply bear case’

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak downgraded Airbnb to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $80, down from $110. Required forward supply has been a key debate since the IPO and his analysis of company and third party data leads him to estimate Airbnb currently has 6.2M active listings and about 1.1B room nights available to be booked. Active listings have grown at a 12% CAGR from 2018-2022, but he sees this slowing to a 7% CAGR in 2022-2025 due to scale and the "law of large numbers," said Nowak, who argues that slowing supply creates an occupancy headwind and lower forward room night demand.