Full Truck Alliance (YMM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.85B
• Dividend Yield: 0.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 25.36%
• EPS Growth: 61.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,185
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 939,300,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,655,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,870,345
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.55
• 1Y Price Target: $13.80
• Price Target Upside: 14.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(7.79% Upside)

Full Truck Alliance's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, tempered by bearish technical indicators and moderate valuation metrics. Concerns about future revenue growth and increased service fees also weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, positioning the company for sustained expansion.

Operational Efficiency

Improved fulfillment efficiency enhances service quality and customer satisfaction, strengthening competitive positioning in the logistics sector.

User Engagement

Increasing user engagement reflects the platform's growing appeal and stickiness, which is crucial for long-term revenue growth and market share.

Negative Factors

Service Fee Increase Impact

Higher service fees could deter shippers, reducing transaction volumes and potentially impacting revenue and profitability negatively.

Modest Revenue Growth Forecast

Slower projected revenue growth suggests potential challenges in maintaining past growth rates, possibly affecting investor confidence and strategic flexibility.

Cash Flow Data Absence

Lack of updated cash flow information hinders assessment of liquidity and financial health, potentially obscuring risks related to operational sustainability.

Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

How the Company Makes Money

Full Truck Alliance generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging transaction fees for each match made between shippers and truck drivers on its platform. Additionally, it offers premium subscription services to logistics companies that provide enhanced features and analytics for efficient route planning and load management. The platform also monetizes through advertising and partnerships with transportation-related service providers, contributing to its overall earnings. Significant partnerships with logistics firms and technology companies further enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach.

Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low debt and strong equity. However, the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive analysis.

Income Statement

Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.

Cash Flow

While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.14B	11.24B	8.44B	6.73B	4.66B	2.58B
Gross Profit	8.66B	9.73B	7.20B	3.22B	2.12B	1.26B
EBITDA	3.96B	2.55B	2.41B	-74.14M	-3.73B	-3.38B
Net Income	4.18B	3.07B	2.21B	406.76M	-3.65B	-3.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.60B	41.29B	39.35B	36.70B	34.40B	25.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.74B	20.81B	18.29B	26.22B	25.92B	18.79B
Total Debt	52.15M	65.13M	84.47M	80.52M	9.00M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.79B	3.15B	3.45B	2.89B	2.87B	2.08B
Stockholders Equity	39.22B	37.68B	35.60B	33.66B	31.46B	23.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	2.90B	2.17B	-101.21M	-254.64M	521.68M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.97B	2.27B	-15.52M	-211.42M	574.74M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-2.42B	553.74M	2.13B	-14.40B	-2.69B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.52B	-1.17B	-1.33B	8.90B	8.32B

Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.04, below the 50-day MA of 12.58, and above the 200-day MA of 11.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.

Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRAB	71 Outperform	$24.17B	214.91	1.77%	―	18.84%	―
YMM	69 Neutral	$12.85B	22.37	11.14%	0.80%	25.36%	61.25%
LYFT	68 Neutral	$7.82B	91.32	14.07%	―	19.94%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SPT	61 Neutral	$645.05M	―	-32.50%	―	14.79%	27.52%
ZETA	61 Neutral	$4.38B	―	-8.21%	―	40.60%	79.56%
KC	51 Neutral	$4.15B	―	-31.02%	―	20.42%	-9.39%

Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events

Full Truck Alliance Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Growth

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a 17.2% increase in total net revenues to RMB3,239.1 million compared to the same period in 2024. The company reported a net income increase of 50.5% to RMB1,264.8 million, driven by growth in transaction service revenues and improved operational efficiency. The platform expanded to 1.2 million shipper members and nearly one million trucker members, with a fulfillment rate increase to over 40%. The results underscore the company’s resilience and strategic focus on enhancing its freight matching ecosystem, aiming for long-term value delivery to users and shareholders.

Full Truck Alliance Adjusts Freight Brokerage Service Fees Amid Strategic Shift

On August 1, 2025, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced changes to its freight brokerage service, specifically increasing the service fee rate to reduce dependency on government grants. This decision is expected to lead to a significant decline in transaction volume and revenue from the freight brokerage service by the quarter ending September 30, 2025, potentially impacting the company’s profitability. These changes reflect the company’s strategic shift to ensure sustainability and address uncertainties, which may affect stakeholders, particularly shippers, due to increased costs.