XP AI Stock Analysis
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XP (XP) AI Stock Analysis
XP
(NASDAQ:XP)
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and cash flow, supported by an attractive valuation. These positives are tempered by elevated balance-sheet leverage and weak technicals (price below key moving averages), while the earnings call was constructive on growth and capital returns but flagged market-driven headwinds and fee/mix pressure.
XP (XP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $7.95B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.47%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 12.62M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.31
- Revenue Growth
- 16.84%
- EPS Growth
- 20.39%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 8,069
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Financial - Capital Markets
XP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XP Inc. provides financial products and services in Brazil. The company operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual,...
How the Company Makes Money
XP primarily generates revenue by distributing and facilitating financial products and transactions through its platform and advisor network. Key revenue streams include: (1) Distribution and placement fees/commissions earned when clients invest in t...
XP Earnings Call Summary
The call presented solid business momentum: strong client asset growth (+17% YoY), robust net new money ($28bn), meaningful top-line and EBT expansion (+8% and +15% YoY respectively), exceptional corporate segment performance (+117% YoY), plus disciplined capital returns (buybacks, dividends, share cancellation) and a healthy capital ratio (20.3%). Offsetting these positives were material mark-to-market losses (~BRL 420m H1), a weak primary debt market and a shift toward lower-fee daily liquidity fixed income products that compressed fee margins, alongside rising RWAs and near-term seasonal cost headwinds. On balance the positives – growth, profitability expansion, strong corporate and retail underlying momentum, and active capital management – outweigh the challenges, though management highlighted risks tied to market volatility and mix shifts.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated forward guidance for double‑digit growth through 2026 and a target of roughly $20 billion in retail net new money per quarter (Q2 met that target; total net new money in Q2 was $28 billion: $20B retail, $8B corporate/institutional), and said it expects the fixed‑income pipeline to normalize and convert into primary offerings in coming quarters supporting issuer‑services recovery (Q3 better than Q2 but still softer than 2025). Management intends to operate toward a Basel target range of 16–19% (currently 20.3% Basel, CET1 17.1%), pursue capital returns (BRL 1.0B buyback executed, BRL 1.0B open, BRL 500M dividends—~BRL 2.5B total announced—and cancellation of ~11.8M shares, ~2.3% outstanding), and expects payout >50% for the year; operationally it targets a flattish efficiency ratio year‑over‑year (LTM 34.3%, +30 bps YoY) while anticipating typical H2 effects (bonuses, Expert event) and continued strength in corporate revenues. Excluding mark‑to‑market impacts (≈BRL 420M in H1; ≈BRL 150–160M in Q2), retail revenues would have grown ~15% in H1, underscoring the underlying momentum.
XP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and cash generation support the score: TTM net margin ~28% and operating margin ~32%, plus very strong operating and free cash flow with good cash conversion. The primary offset is balance-sheet risk: leverage remains high (debt-to-equity ~3.7 TTM), which reduces flexibility despite solid ROE (~22% TTM).
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
52NeutralCash Flow
81Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.27B | 18.24B | 19.87B | 14.82B | 14.18B | 12.97B |
| Gross Profit | 12.85B | 12.29B | 13.45B | 9.99B | 9.74B | 8.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.56B | 6.26B | 6.88B | 4.73B | 4.19B | 4.34B |
| Net Income | 5.32B | 5.07B | 5.18B | 3.84B | 3.71B | 3.73B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 407.40B | 396.53B | 347.46B | 249.04B | 192.03B | 139.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.97B | 10.35B | 74.91B | 54.41B | 41.30B | 36.22B |
| Total Debt | 92.75B | 85.30B | 115.13B | 68.56B | 35.52B | 28.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 382.60B | 372.98B | 327.41B | 229.59B | 174.99B | 124.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.79B | 23.55B | 20.04B | 19.45B | 17.04B | 14.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.52B | 11.84B | 10.85B | 7.93B | 1.68B | -4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.83B | 12.04B | 11.18B | 8.13B | 1.80B | -4.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.20B | -715.97M | -1.67B | 538.81M | -371.28M | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.64B | -4.93B | -5.78B | -4.39B | -200.30M | 6.64B |
XP Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.37, below the 50-day MA of 21.95, and below the 200-day MA of 18.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XP.
XP Risk Analysis
XP disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XP reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksXP Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
FUTU82Outperform
MKTX78Outperform
ETOR72Outperform- XP68Neutral
SCHW64Neutral
LPLA61Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUTU | 82Outperform | $13.39B | 9.63 | 28.42% | 2.65% | 44.47% | 39.64% |
| MKTX | 78Outperform | $5.81B | 20.21 | 24.09% | 1.89% | 3.55% | 38.95% |
| ETOR | 72Outperform | $1.75B | 9.09 | 15.92% | ― | 1.30% | 4.19% |
| XP | 68Neutral | $7.65B | 8.36 | 22.05% | 2.47% | 16.84% | 20.39% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| SCHW | 64Neutral | $160.57B | 15.75 | 21.29% | 1.33% | 12.30% | 37.56% |
| LPLA | 61Neutral | $24.02B | 17.25 | 24.65% | 0.40% | 31.04% | 59.91% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XP | Xp Incorporation | 15.38 | -3.26 | -17.50% | |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 301.62 | -69.77 | -18.79% | |
| MKTX | Marketaxess | 165.31 | -4.59 | -2.70% | |
| SCHW | Charles Schwab Corp. | 92.78 | -1.38 | -1.46% | |
| FUTU | Futu Holdings | 98.00 | -78.90 | -44.60% | |
| ETOR | Etoro Group Ltd. | 22.99 | -16.27 | -41.44% |
XP Corporate Events
XP Inc. Names Microsoft Executive Rodrigo Kede Lima Interim Director After Escobari Resigns
XP Inc. reported that board member Martin Emiliano Escobari Lifchitz resigned from the company’s Board of Directors, effective October 16, 2026, following a voluntary decision that was explicitly not driven by any disagreement over operations, polici...
XP Inc. Posts Higher H1 2026 Assets in Unaudited Interim Filing
XP Inc. reported unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, with total assets rising to 408.0 billion Brazilian reais from 396.5 billion reais at year-end 2025. The filing, made on...
XP Inc. Cancels 2.3% of Treasury Class A Shares to Tighten Float
XP Inc., a Brazilian technology-driven provider of low-fee financial products and advisory services, serves retail, high-net-worth, international, corporate and institutional clients through an open investment platform. Its offering spans more than 8...
XP Inc. Posts Solid Growth and Diversification in Second-Quarter 2026 Results
On August 17, 2026, XP Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 results showing solid expansion across its Brazilian financial platform, with client assets reaching R$1.5 trillion, up 12% year-on-year, and net inflows accelerating to R$28 billion. Operation...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 27, 2026