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Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) AI Stock Analysis

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WMMVY

Wal-Mart de Mexico

(Other OTC:WMMVY)

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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:$28.00â–²(4.37% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/29/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (steady margins, strong ROE, and moderate leverage) and reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% dividend yield. These strengths are partly offset by weakening cash-flow conversion and a clearly bearish technical trend, while the latest earnings call supports a cautiously positive outlook but highlights near-term cost and demand pressures.

Positive Factors
Scale and diversified retail networkThe broad multi-format network gives WMMVY several ways to serve different customer missions, while grocery and consumables provide recurring purchase frequency. Physical stores combined with digital retail can support scale efficiencies, customer reach, and resilience across changing shopping preferences.
Negative Factors
Weaker margin and cash-flow conversionThe combination of lower net margin and declining free cash flow indicates that recent growth is converting less efficiently into retained cash. If sustained, weaker conversion could constrain reinvestment capacity and make it harder to absorb operating-cost increases while maintaining price competitiveness.

Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%WMMVY-16.78%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$46.05B
Dividend Yield
2.99%
Average Volume (3M)
145.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
17.7
Beta (1Y)
0.20
Revenue Growth
14.09%
EPS Growth
9.98%
Country
US
Employees
240,779
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Discount Stores

Wal-Mart de Mexico Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. owns and operates self-service stores in Mexico and Central America. The company operates discount stores under the Bodega Aurrerá, Despensa Familiar, and Palí names; hypermarkets under the Walmart name; supermarket...

How the Company Makes Money

Wal-Mart de Mexico primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its physical store network and online channels. The core revenue stream is retail sales, driven largely by high-frequency grocery and consumables purchases, compleme...

Wal-Mart de Mexico Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-0.85%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call had a constructive but mixed tone. Management highlighted substantial progress in pricing, availability, assortment, digital capabilities, commerce solutions, and productivity initiatives, while acknowledging meaningful near-term pressure from cautious consumers, discretionary general-merchandise weakness, higher labor costs, SG&A growth, currency exposure, and regional performance differences. The company expressed confidence in its ability to manage these challenges, but the operating environment remains demanding.

Positive Updates

Productivity Initiatives to Offset Rising Operating Costs
Walmex is leveraging global Walmart technology and productivity initiatives, including digital shelf labeling, in-store inventory mapping, smart receiving, supply-chain improvements, and leaner inventory days on hand. Digital shelf labeling was rolled out to more than 100 Walmart Express stores in 2026, with a roadmap for approximately 200 to 300 additional stores in the first half of 2027. A new automated distribution center in Bajío is also expected to improve stocking accuracy.

Negative Updates

SG&A Growth and Higher Cost of Doing Business
SG&A continues to grow faster than sales, and management acknowledged that the cost of doing business is increasing every year. Minimum wages are expected to grow around 12% next year, while the labor reform will reduce the workweek from 48 to 46 hours initially.

Company Guidance

Management expects minimum wages next year around 12% and the labor reform to move working hours from 48-40 hours, beginning next year to 46; DSL coverage is planned for more than 200 or 300 more stores in the first half of 2027, with a new distribution center in Bajío opening next year. Commerce solutions were around 20% year to date and are expected to accelerate even further, while GP should be stable. Walmart Connect remains north of 20% comp year to date and 200 basis points better than last year, with continued momentum and big plans for next year. Assortment changes include 55 categories, almost 35% of sales, deployed in Q1 next year, another 120 categories representing another 35% of sales in Q2 and Q3 next year, and completion for total 2027 or end of 2027. Walmart Express delivery can be 30-40 minutes faster, its assortment pilot will expand to more than 400 stores in the upcoming three or four weeks, and the company expects an effective tax rate at or below last year's effective tax rate for the full year; quarterly tax rate was north of 30%.

Wal-Mart de Mexico Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid with steady ~23–24% gross margin and strong profitability for the category, plus moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.34–0.38) and strong ROE (~21% TTM). The score is tempered by net margin drifting down to ~4.9% TTM and a weaker free-cash-flow trend (TTM FCF growth about -14.6% and lower cash conversion vs prior years).

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.02T948.82B958.51B886.52B819.17B736.04B
Gross Profit248.13B229.98B231.47B210.56B191.40B171.84B
EBITDA95.80B95.77B91.57B97.06B89.90B82.07B
Net Income49.04B46.79B53.83B51.59B48.97B44.14B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets518.74B496.08B493.89B436.55B418.81B394.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments27.06B28.64B36.51B40.67B47.43B42.82B
Total Debt84.02B80.85B79.73B75.25B73.35B64.69B
Total Liabilities270.45B260.12B261.02B237.46B216.34B208.51B
Stockholders Equity248.30B235.96B232.88B199.09B202.47B185.88B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow41.17B41.76B37.87B56.33B43.17B44.42B
Operating Cash Flow79.86B78.32B72.64B85.12B64.47B64.88B
Investing Cash Flow-36.67B-35.31B-30.53B-29.76B-20.32B-19.13B
Financing Cash Flow-50.29B-47.84B-49.80B-58.55B-39.64B-37.50B

Wal-Mart de Mexico Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price26.83

Price Trends

50DMA26.72Positive
100DMA27.66Negative
200DMA29.94Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.01Negative
RSI53.69Neutral
STOCH25.00Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WMMVY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.35, above the 50-day MA of 26.72, and below the 200-day MA of 29.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WMMVY.

Wal-Mart de Mexico Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

WMMVY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
COSTCOST83Outperform$448.57B48.7128.02%0.56%10.14%13.92%
WMTWMT79Outperform$979.90B44.5922.74%0.79%6.16%4.00%
FMXFMX75Outperform$25.37B22.3115.84%5.93%18.16%89.79%
WMMVYWMMVY68Neutral$46.80B17.7020.22%2.99%14.09%9.98%
DGDG67Neutral$29.19B17.1119.56%1.78%4.77%42.79%
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
KRKR61Neutral$39.43B36.0917.17%2.16%1.58%-53.21%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%WMMVYCOSTDGFMXKRWMTDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
WMMVY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
WMMVYWal-Mart de Mexico26.83-5.37-16.69%
COSTCostco Wholesale Corp.1012.2889.689.72%
DGDollar General Corp132.3035.0035.97%
FMXFomento Economico Mexicano S.a.b. De C.v.126.1037.2841.97%
KRKroger Company66.764.737.62%
WMTWalmart Inc.123.5122.7722.60%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026