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Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh
(OTC:VONOY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(0.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality (profit rebound but high volatility, leverage, and weak cash conversion) and a cautiously constructive earnings outlook with guidance intact but meaningful execution risk in sales/disposals. Valuation is the main upside factor (low P/E and high yield), while technical indicators are neutral and do not add strong momentum support.
Positive Factors
Rental resilience
The rental portfolio shows durable operating strength through low vacancy, near-complete rent collection and continued revenue growth. This recurring base provides visibility, supports cash generation and helps offset volatility in property sales and development activities over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage remains high relative to the company’s medium-term targets, leaving financial performance sensitive to disposal execution, asset values and refinancing conditions. Elevated debt can restrict capital allocation flexibility and increase the consequences of weaker operating or transaction performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rental resilience
The rental portfolio shows durable operating strength through low vacancy, near-complete rent collection and continued revenue growth. This recurring base provides visibility, supports cash generation and helps offset volatility in property sales and development activities over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh (VONOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.48B
Dividend Yield6.02%
Average Volume (3M)52.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.1
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-14.52%
EPS Growth972.88%
CountryUS
Employees12,708
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.30
Shares Outstanding1,696,873,000
10 Day Avg. Volume85,062
30 Day Avg. Volume52,977
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)4.25
P/FCF Ratio16.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.08B
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vonovia SE functions as an integrated residential real estate enterprise operating across Europe. Its business activities are structured into five distinct segments: Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, Development, and Deutsche Wohnen. The firm de...
How the Company Makes Money
Vonovia primarily makes money by generating recurring rental income from its large portfolio of residential properties. Tenants pay monthly rent, and this rental business is supported by in-house property management operations that handle leasing,...
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights solid operational performance in the core Rental and rapidly scaling Value-add business, successful front-loaded refinancing and meaningful disposals and valuation gains. However, sales-related segments (Recurring Sales and Development) remain weak and back-end loaded, creating near-term uncertainty and risk to the upper end of 2026 adjusted EBT guidance. Leverage is improving but still elevated and sensitive to disposal execution. On balance the positive operational momentum, active balance-sheet management and confirmed guidance outweigh the sales-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Total Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA total ~EUR 1.46bn in H1 2026, up 2.4% reported and up 6.4% when adjusted for the prior-year large land sale (Q1 2025), demonstrating underlying operational momentum.
Negative Updates
Sales-Related Segments Underperformance
Recurring Sales volumes materially lower in H1 (690 units vs 1,134 prior-year, ~39% fewer units) and Development revenues down 23% YoY (EUR 162m) with Development adjusted EBITDA of EUR 20m (prior-year benefited from a EUR 53m land sale). Management notes sales segments are back-end loaded and remain sensitive to market conditions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA total ~EUR 1.46bn in H1 2026, up 2.4% reported and up 6.4% when adjusted for the prior-year large land sale (Q1 2025), demonstrating underlying operational momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vonovia reiterated full‑year 2026 and medium‑term 2028 targets while flagging downside risk in the sales segments: for 2026 it guides rental revenue of EUR 3.45–3.55bn, organic rent growth of ~4% (revised down 20bps), total investments of ~EUR 1.4bn, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 2.95–3.05bn, adjusted EBT of EUR 1.9–2.0bn and adjusted shareholder earnings of EUR 1.4–1.5bn; for 2028 it targets rental revenue EUR 3.7–3.8bn, organic rent growth ~5%, investments ~EUR 2bn, adjusted EBITDA EUR 3.2–3.5bn, adjusted EBT mid‑single‑digit CAGR (2024–28) and adjusted EBITDA mix goals of Value‑add 9–12%, Recurring Sales 5–8% and Development 4–5%; leverage targets remain LTV ≈40%, net debt/EBITDA <12x and ICR comfortably >3x by year‑end 2028. The company points to H1 progress — adjusted EBITDA ~EUR 1.46bn, operating free cash flow EUR 607.5m, like‑for‑like value growth +1.1% excl. investments (+1.8% incl.), fair value ~EUR 81.8bn, refinancings ~EUR 4.4bn (avg. duration ~8 years, avg. euro coupon ~3.2%), trimmed 2027 refinancing to ~EUR 3bn and disposals ~EUR 700m (including ~EUR 200m Vesteda) — but cautions that weaker H2 sales activity could make the upper half of 2026 EBITDA/EBT guidance ambitious (while potentially supporting adjusted shareholder earnings via lower tax outflows).Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.24B | 4.78B | 5.94B | 5.23B | 5.15B | 3.62B |
| Gross Profit | 3.55B | 2.39B | 2.25B | 2.47B | 2.86B | 2.23B |
| EBITDA | 4.52B | 2.96B | 408.00M | -7.90B | 1.26B | 9.81B |
| Net Income | 3.88B | 3.58B | -896.00M | -6.29B | -669.40M | 2.68B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 93.07B | 93.22B | 90.24B | 92.00B | 101.39B | 105.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.85B | 3.26B | 2.02B | 1.59B | 1.20B | 1.32B |
| Total Debt | 42.89B | 43.29B | 43.21B | 43.49B | 45.69B | 47.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.19B | 61.06B | 62.11B | 62.05B | 66.95B | 69.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.19B | 27.45B | 24.00B | 25.68B | 31.33B | 33.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.26B | 2.40B | 1.90B | 1.86B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.40B | 1.59B | 2.40B | 1.90B | 2.08B | 1.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -874.70M | -387.38M | -187.60M | -825.90M | 938.20M | -19.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -378.52M | 182.69M | -1.82B | -961.00M | -3.15B | 18.13B |
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Technical Analysis
Negative
11.49
Price Trends
11.90
Negative
12.11
Negative
12.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
33.93
Neutral
27.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VONOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.53, below the 50-day MA of 11.90, and below the 200-day MA of 12.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VONOY.
Vonovia SE Shs Unsponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 1/2 Sh Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.67B | 16.54 | 13.57% | 0.53% | 11.17% | 79.36% | |
70 Outperform | $42.81B | 32.41 | 15.16% | ― | 14.53% | 22.31% | |
68 Neutral | $19.90B | 27.30 | 6.99% | 1.60% | -11.19% | 30.74% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $18.48B | 4.08 | 14.27% | 6.02% | -14.52% | 972.88% | |
62 Neutral | $12.52B | 165.16 | 0.90% | ― | 21.96% | -28.75% | |
62 Neutral | $3.21B | 45.44 | 3.50% | ― | 11.04% | -66.92% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
VONOY
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.