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Vanda
(NASDAQ:VNDA)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-26.47% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
VNDA scores below average primarily due to deteriorating profitability and accelerating cash burn, which outweigh a balance-sheet leverage cushion. Technicals also detract as the stock trades below major moving averages with bearish momentum, though oversold indicators hint pressure may be extended. The latest earnings call provides some support via stronger revenue trends, upcoming launches, and expense reductions, but near-term funding/runway risk remains elevated given the cash decline and higher expected cash burn.
Positive Factors
Fanapt Commercial Momentum
Fanapt is showing durable commercial traction, supported by higher sales, prescription growth, and stronger new-to-brand demand. Expansion into bipolar I disorder and broader sales-force coverage can extend the product’s addressable market and help sustain branded revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Cash Burn
Rapid cash depletion combined with an expectation of higher annual burn creates a meaningful funding and runway risk. Continued investment in launches and clinical programs may require difficult capital-allocation decisions, especially if new products do not scale quickly enough to offset spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fanapt Commercial Momentum
Fanapt is showing durable commercial traction, supported by higher sales, prescription growth, and stronger new-to-brand demand. Expansion into bipolar I disorder and broader sales-force coverage can extend the product’s addressable market and help sustain branded revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Vanda (VNDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$229.18M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth8.11%
EPS Growth-222.50%
CountryUS
Employees533
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.62
Shares Outstanding60,462,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,081,044
30 Day Avg. Volume1,127,394
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.59
Price to Sales (P/S)2.41
P/FCF Ratio-4.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.25Price Target Upside143.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$248.84M
Vanda Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing and commercializing therapeutic solutions that address critical unmet medical needs. The company currently offers two approved treatments: HETLIOZ, prescribed for no...
How the Company Makes Money
Vanda makes money primarily by selling prescription pharmaceuticals. Its revenue is generated from (1) product sales of its marketed drugs—HETLIOZ, Fanapt, and PONVORY—through distribution to wholesalers/specialty pharmacies and ultimately to heal...
Vanda Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive, supported by 24% third-quarter revenue growth, strong Fanapt prescription trends, positive NEREUS and HETLIOZ clinical results, the expected BYSANTI launch, the Quimilza regulatory milestone, and declining quarterly operating expenses. These positives were partly offset by a larger year-to-date net loss, a substantial cash balance decline, expected higher 2026 cash burn, continued generic pressure on HETLIOZ, constrained early NEREUS revenue, and ongoing regulatory proceedings.Positive Updates
Third-Quarter Revenue Growth
Total revenues were $69.8 million in the third quarter of 2026, increasing 24% compared to $56.3 million in the third quarter of 2025 and 38% compared to $50.5 million in the second quarter of 2026. The increases were primarily due to higher HETLIOZ revenue from the timing of specialty pharmacy purchases and customer shipments, along with Fanapt growth from the bipolar I commercial launch.
Negative Updates
Higher Year-to-Date Net Loss
For the first nine months of 2026, Vanda recorded a net loss of $133.6 million compared with a net loss of $79.3 million in the same period of 2025. The 2026 loss included $0.4 million of income tax expense, compared with a $21.4 million income tax benefit in the comparable 2025 period.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Third-Quarter Revenue Growth
Total revenues were $69.8 million in the third quarter of 2026, increasing 24% compared to $56.3 million in the third quarter of 2025 and 38% compared to $50.5 million in the second quarter of 2026. The increases were primarily due to higher HETLIOZ revenue from the timing of specialty pharmacy purchases and customer shipments, along with Fanapt growth from the bipolar I commercial launch.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vanda updated its full year 2026 total revenue guidance, expecting total revenues from Fanapt, BYSANTI, HETLIOZ, PONVORY, and NEREUS of greater than $240 million; NEREUS revenue is likely to be less than $10 million for the full year of 2026, while NEREUS total prescriptions and unique prescribers in Q3 2026 increased by over 100% versus Q2 2026. Vanda is not providing 2026 cash guidance at this time, but it is likely that Vanda's 2026 cash burn will be greater than the cash burn in 2025. Operating expenses decreased by 18% to $93.3 million from $114.3 million in Q2 of 2026 and are expected to decrease further in future quarterly periods. BYSANTI is expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026, Quimilza could be ready with commercial product a few months after December, with the goal of being on the market in the first half of 2027, and the BYSANTI MDD study is expected to complete in the first half of 2027.Vanda Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 229.28M | 216.10M | 198.77M | 192.64M | 254.38M | 268.68M |
| Gross Profit | 212.59M | 203.06M | 187.46M | 177.84M | 230.10M | 243.05M |
| EBITDA | -162.09M | -126.73M | -14.79M | 9.35M | 14.03M | 45.20M |
| Net Income | -274.83M | -220.47M | -18.90M | 2.51M | 6.28M | 33.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 382.33M | 488.95M | 656.20M | 648.44M | 634.25M | 593.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 140.49M | 263.85M | 374.64M | 388.26M | 466.86M | 432.81M |
| Total Debt | 21.97M | 12.62M | 12.36M | 9.40M | 11.14M | 12.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 182.47M | 161.76M | 117.66M | 103.53M | 107.05M | 88.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 199.86M | 327.19M | 538.55M | 544.91M | 527.20M | 504.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -139.96M | -110.44M | -16.25M | 12.42M | 31.30M | 63.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -139.14M | -109.44M | -15.76M | 12.80M | 31.98M | 64.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 154.35M | 94.86M | -17.43M | -12.06M | 49.92M | -76.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.92M | -2.91M | -155.00K | 0.00 | 734.00K | 3.55M |
Vanda Technical Analysis
Negative
5.44
Price Trends
4.79
Negative
5.21
Negative
6.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
26.67
Positive
25.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VNDA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.21, above the 50-day MA of 4.79, and below the 200-day MA of 6.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.67 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VNDA.
Vanda Risk Analysis
Vanda disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vanda reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vanda Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59 Neutral | $1.33B | 9.65 | -109.40% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $229.18M | -0.82 | -106.94% | ― | 8.11% | -222.50% | |
47 Neutral | $410.06M | -3.57 | -196.63% | ― | 20.83% | 73.89% | |
46 Neutral | $46.21M | -1.59 | -74.76% | ― | -100.00% | 44.94% | |
45 Neutral | $327.65M | -2.01 | -531.04% | ― | -82.91% | 6.27% | |
40 Underperform | $33.80M | -1.45 | -53.14% | ― | ― | 54.84% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VNDA
Vanda
3.79
-0.56
-12.87%
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EDIT
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MREO
Mereo Biopharma Group Plc
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ALEC
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2.21
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50.34%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.