Valneva (VALN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $898.98M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 72.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 30.95%
• EPS Growth: -78.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 713
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 85,927,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 100,557
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 72,914
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -12.09
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 42.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▼(-9.52% Downside)

Valneva's overall stock score reflects a mix of positive technical momentum and strategic progress in vaccine development, offset by financial challenges. The company's strong cash position and revenue growth are promising, but negative profitability and valuation metrics weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and successful product adoption, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Strong Cash Position

A robust cash position provides financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and cushioning against potential downturns.

Successful Vaccine Developments

Advancements in vaccine development strengthen Valneva's competitive position and potential for future revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

Excessive debt can strain financial resources, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic challenges.

Negative Profitability

Persistent losses undermine financial health, requiring improvements in operational efficiency to achieve sustainable profitability.

FDA License Suspension

Regulatory setbacks can hinder product sales and damage reputation, impacting long-term growth and market trust.

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Valneva generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine products. The company's revenue streams include sales from licensed vaccines, government contracts, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for research and development. Valneva has entered into significant collaborations, such as its partnership with the British government for the development of its COVID-19 vaccine, which provides funding and potential revenue from future vaccine sales. Additionally, Valneva may receive milestone payments and royalties from its collaborations, further contributing to its earnings. The company also seeks to expand its market presence through strategic partnerships that enhance its product pipeline and distribution capabilities.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability metrics and cash flow issues. Despite a healthy gross profit margin and modest revenue growth, the high debt-to-equity ratio and negative net profit margin are concerning. Improving operational efficiency and managing debt levels are crucial.

Income Statement

Valneva's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 46.56%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -43.21%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth is modest at 5.52% TTM, but the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is moderate, but the company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating declining cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting cash flow issues. The company must enhance cash flow management to support its operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	196.33M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	96.25M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-41.55M	32.08M	-57.72M	-99.39M	-46.87M	-46.11M
Net Income	-67.04M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	472.63M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	161.31M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	196.92M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	286.19M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	186.43M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.39M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.90M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.33M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	56.57M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.57, above the 50-day MA of 9.89, and above the 200-day MA of 7.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VALN.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSHA	56 Neutral	$1.33B	―	-51.86%	―	-37.09%	58.96%
VALN	55 Neutral	$898.98M	―	-36.50%	―	30.95%	-78.41%
URGN	54 Neutral	$771.69M	―	-452.20%	―	10.85%	-1.41%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ABUS	51 Neutral	$787.88M	―	-52.82%	―	53.23%	35.32%
IVA	42 Neutral	$643.70M	―	344.74%	―	-12.52%	-82.84%
SANA	33 Underperform	$1.12B	―	-109.12%	―	―	7.58%

Valneva Corporate Events

Valneva Secures $500 Million Financing to Bolster Vaccine Pipeline

On October 6, 2025, Valneva SE announced a new $500 million non-dilutive financing agreement with Pharmakon Advisors, LP, which includes an initial tranche of $215 million to refinance existing debt. This agreement enhances Valneva’s financial flexibility by lowering the cost of capital and extending repayment terms, allowing the company to focus on advancing its vaccine pipeline, including the Lyme disease candidate VLA15. Additionally, Valneva adjusted its 2025 financial guidance due to the FDA’s suspension of the IXCHIQ® product license, expecting lower product sales and total revenues. The company remains on track with its Phase 3 clinical trial for the Lyme disease vaccine, with outcomes expected in the first half of 2026 and potential commercialization by Pfizer in 2027.

Valneva Reports Long-lasting Antibody Persistence for Chikungunya Vaccine

On September 30, 2025, Valneva SE announced positive four-year antibody persistence data for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®. The data showed that 95% of participants maintained neutralizing antibody titers above the seroresponse threshold, with similar results across different age groups. This long-lasting antibody persistence is a significant advantage for the vaccine, especially in areas prone to chikungunya outbreaks. The trial, supported by CEPI and the EU’s Horizon Europe program, also reported no safety concerns. Valneva aims to expand vaccine access, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, through partnerships such as the one with the Serum Institute of India.

Valneva Reports Positive Phase 2 Results for Lyme Disease Vaccine

Valneva SE announced positive results from its Phase 2 study of the Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, on September 3, 2025. The study showed a strong immune response and favorable safety profile after a third booster dose, consistent with previous results, highlighting the vaccine’s potential benefits. With no approved human vaccines for Lyme disease, VLA15 is the most advanced candidate in clinical development, with two Phase 3 trials nearing completion. The vaccine targets the outer surface protein A of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria causing Lyme disease, and covers the six most prevalent serotypes in North America and Europe. Valneva’s collaboration with Pfizer aims to address the pressing unmet medical need for Lyme disease vaccination as the disease’s geographic footprint expands.

Valneva Faces FDA Suspension of Chikungunya Vaccine License

On August 25, 2025, Valneva announced that the FDA suspended the license for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®, in the U.S. due to four new reports of serious adverse events. This suspension requires Valneva to halt the shipping and selling of IXCHIQ® in the U.S. The company is investigating these cases further and evaluating the potential financial impact of a permanent withdrawal of the vaccine’s license in the U.S. Despite this setback, Valneva remains committed to providing the vaccine globally, especially in chikungunya-endemic countries, and continues to engage with health authorities to maintain high safety standards.

Valneva’s Chikungunya Vaccine IXCHIQ® Gains Health Canada Approval

On August 18, 2025, Valneva SE announced that Health Canada has granted marketing authorization for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®, for individuals aged 12 and older. This approval marks a significant milestone as chikungunya poses a growing public health risk, with recent outbreaks in countries like Brazil, India, and China. The vaccine’s authorization in Canada follows its earlier approval in Brazil and complements its adolescent label extension received in Europe. The approval is based on positive Phase 3 data showing a high and sustained immune response, and it is expected to accelerate the vaccine’s licensure in other regions, enhancing protection against the chikungunya virus.

Valneva Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Strategic Advances in H1 2025

On August 12, 2025, Valneva SE reported its financial results for the first half of 2025, showing a significant increase in total revenues to €97.6 million, up from €70.8 million in the same period of 2024. Despite a net loss of €20.8 million, the company achieved a substantial reduction in operating cash burn and confirmed its financial outlook for 2025. Key developments included a new supply contract with the U.S. Department of Defense and marketing authorizations for its chikungunya vaccine in the UK and Brazil, highlighting strategic progress in expanding its vaccine offerings and market reach.

Valneva’s Chikungunya Vaccine IXCHIQ® Resumes Use for Elderly After FDA Approval

On August 7, 2025, Valneva announced that the FDA has lifted its recommended pause on the use of the chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ® for individuals aged 60 and older, following a comprehensive review by the European Medicines Agency. The prescribing information for IXCHIQ® has been updated to reflect reports of serious adverse events, particularly in elderly individuals with multiple underlying health conditions. This decision allows the vaccine to remain available for high-risk individuals aged 18 and older, although it is not recommended for most U.S. travelers due to low risk of exposure. The FDA is also reviewing potential label extensions for adolescents and additional persistence data.