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Valneva
(NASDAQ:VALN)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-10.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative cash flow, and rising leverage). Technicals provide some support due to positive momentum, but overbought signals and being below the 200-day average limit upside. Reiterated guidance and restructuring/pipeline progress help, yet the latest call underscored meaningful H1 deterioration and reliance on improvement in H2 and regulatory/partner milestones.
Positive Factors
Liquidity Buffer
The higher cash balance provides Valneva with a meaningful liquidity buffer while it executes restructuring and advances its vaccine pipeline. Although operations still consume cash, stronger liquidity supports continuity of development, commercial execution, and near-term obligations over the coming months.
Negative Factors
Revenue Contraction
The broad decline across total revenue and product sales indicates weakened commercial momentum rather than pressure limited to one product. Continued contraction would reduce the scale available to absorb fixed costs and make the company more dependent on pipeline milestones and future contracts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Liquidity Buffer
The higher cash balance provides Valneva with a meaningful liquidity buffer while it executes restructuring and advances its vaccine pipeline. Although operations still consume cash, stronger liquidity supports continuity of development, commercial execution, and near-term obligations over the coming months.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VALN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$561.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)28.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth-21.91%
EPS Growth-134.63%
CountryUS
Employees674
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.82
Shares Outstanding94,885,620
10 Day Avg. Volume24,295
30 Day Avg. Volume28,643
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)3.61
P/FCF Ratio-11.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.67Price Target Upside103.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$174.53M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE operates as a specialized biopharmaceutical company, concentrating its efforts on developing and bringing to market preventative vaccines for infectious diseases where current medical options are insufficient. Its portfolio of commercia...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva makes money primarily through (1) product sales of its commercial vaccines and (2) collaboration/partnering revenue tied to vaccine development and supply arrangements. Product revenue is generated by selling marketed vaccines to customers...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented meaningful operational and pipeline positives — notably a solid cash position (EUR 121.5m), active cost‑saving restructuring, regulatory progress and encouraging clinical signals for the Lyme vaccine, and commercial/partner milestones for IXCHIQ and Shigella. However, H1 2026 was marked by sizeable top‑line declines (total revenue -32.6%), margin deterioration, material one‑off manufacturing and inventory charges (EUR 9.7m cancellation fee, EUR 4.5m impairment), and a large widening of operating losses (EUR 49.9m). While management expects improvements in H2 driven by restructuring, DoD contract extension and reversal of one‑offs, the negative financial trends in H1 outweigh the positives and leave the company dependent on regulatory success for the Lyme vaccine to materially change its financial trajectory.Positive Updates
Strong cash position and liquidity
Cash at June 30, 2026 of EUR 121.5 million versus EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 end, providing a stronger liquidity buffer to execute restructuring and near-term operations.
Negative Updates
Significant year‑over‑year revenue decline
Total revenues of EUR 65.8 million in H1 2026 versus EUR 97.6 million in H1 2025, a decrease of EUR 31.8 million (-32.6%). Product sales were EUR 64 million versus EUR 91 million in prior year (-29.7%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash position and liquidity
Cash at June 30, 2026 of EUR 121.5 million versus EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 end, providing a stronger liquidity buffer to execute restructuring and near-term operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva reiterated 2026 guidance of product sales €135–150m and total revenues €145–160m, saying H1 pacing is in line with that outlook; H1 results included product sales €64.0m (vs €91.0m a year ago) and total revenues €65.8m (vs €97.6m), cash €121.5m (up from €109.6m at FY2025) and cash used in operations €13.7m (vs €10.9m), an operating loss of €49.9m (vs €16.8m) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of €40.1m (vs €6.0m). Cost of goods and services were €59.5m (vs €47.2m), including a €9.7m cancellation‑fee provision and a €4.5m inventory impairment; IXIARO sales €44.0m (vs €54.7m) with 56.4% gross margin (vs 65.5%), DUKORAL €14.7m (vs €17.4m) with 24.7% margin (vs 52.9%), IXCHIQ €4.4m (vs €7.5m) and third‑party products €1.0m (vs €11.4m). Operating expenses showed cuts—R&D €30.2m (vs €32.4m), marketing & distribution €13.5m (vs €20.3m), G&A €15.4m (vs €19.0m)—with a one‑time restructuring cost of €3.2m; management expects product‑related gross margin, P&L and cash flow to improve in H2 after non‑recurring effects, anticipates a new U.S. DoD IXIARO contract in the coming months, and says the company could become financially self‑sustainable starting in 2026 pending regulatory approval and Pfizer commercialization of the Lyme vaccine.Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 143.51M | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 23.47M | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -93.22M | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -158.17M | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 388.12M | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 121.48M | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 210.14M | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 307.03M | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 81.09M | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -85.67M | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -83.15M | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.82M | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 53.67M | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Negative
6.70
Price Trends
6.29
Negative
5.81
Negative
7.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
35.59
Neutral
24.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.13, above the 50-day MA of 6.29, and below the 200-day MA of 7.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALN.
Valneva Risk Analysis
Valneva disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valneva reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Successful commercialization of our products depends on numerous factors, some of which may be outside of our control. Q4, 2023
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $822.14M | 5.20 | 90.98% | ― | 1078.78% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $1.87B | -19.32 | 81.78% | ― | 100.27% | 39.90% | |
50 Neutral | $1.35B | -8.47 | -56.19% | ― | -32.27% | -21.09% | |
49 Neutral | $561.69M | -2.81 | -152.15% | ― | -21.91% | -134.63% | |
47 Neutral | $783.91M | -4.99 | -1625.48% | ― | -99.61% | 66.37% | |
41 Neutral | $784.32M | -3.17 | -134.49% | ― | ― | 28.46% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VALN
Valneva
5.56
-4.85
-46.59%
ABUS
Arbutus Biopharma
4.11
-0.13
-3.07%
URGN
Urogen Pharma
38.26
21.61
129.79%
IVA
Inventiva
2.87
-2.09
-42.14%
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies
3.58
-1.58
-30.62%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
2.41
-2.04
-45.84%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.